Viva Energy Group Ltd
ASX:VEA

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Viva Energy Group Ltd
ASX:VEA
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Price: 2.62 AUD 0.38% Market Closed
Market Cap: 4.2B AUD
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one VEA stock under the Base Case scenario is 9.76 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 2.62 AUD, Viva Energy Group Ltd is Undervalued by 73%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

VEA Intrinsic Value
9.76 AUD
Undervaluation 73%
Intrinsic Value
Price
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Base Case
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Viva Energy Group Ltd

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Investment Journal
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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Viva Energy Group Ltd

Current Assets 5.1B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 298m
Receivables 2.2B
Other Current Assets 2.6B
Non-Current Assets 7.5B
Long-Term Investments 21.9m
PP&E 5.5B
Intangibles 1.6B
Other Non-Current Assets 359.4m
Current Liabilities 5B
Accounts Payable 4.6B
Other Current Liabilities 471.5m
Non-Current Liabilities 5.4B
Long-Term Debt 5.1B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 261.5m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Viva Energy Group Ltd

Revenue
28.4B AUD
Cost of Revenue
-25.5B AUD
Gross Profit
2.9B AUD
Operating Expenses
-2.5B AUD
Operating Income
412.6m AUD
Other Expenses
-251.3m AUD
Net Income
161.3m AUD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Viva Energy Group Ltd

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

Viva Energy experienced a downturn with a $65 million EBITDA, attributing it to lower refining margins and an extended turnaround due to a June compressor incident. The company managed cash well despite disruptions and completed the Coles Express acquisition, ultimately transitioning it to a new brand. A final fully franked dividend of $0.072 per share, a 76% payout ratio, was announced. The OTR acquisition is set for the first half of 2024 with advances in the energy transition including EV charging stations and solar rollout. Upgrades to the refinery for low sulphur petrol are underway, totaling $200 million. The company ended the year with a net debt of $380 million but maintains strategic investment capacity.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

VEA Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Viva Energy Group Ltd's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
ROE is Increasing
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive Revenue Growth Forecast
50/100
Profitability
Score

Viva Energy Group Ltd's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

VEA Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Viva Energy Group Ltd's solvency score is 29/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Long-Term Solvency
Short-Term Solvency
Average Altman Z-Score
High D/E
29/100
Solvency
Score

Viva Energy Group Ltd's solvency score is 29/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

VEA Price Targets Summary
Viva Energy Group Ltd

Wall Street analysts forecast VEA stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VEA is 3.72 AUD with a low forecast of 3.21 AUD and a high forecast of 4.73 AUD.

Lowest
Price Target
3.21 AUD
23% Upside
Average
Price Target
3.72 AUD
42% Upside
Highest
Price Target
4.73 AUD
80% Upside
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Dividends

Dividend Yield
Lowest
Average
Highest
Dividend Per Share
N/A
Growth 3Y
Growth 5Y
Growth 10Y
Dividend Safety Score
Very
Unsafe
Unsafe
Safe
Very
Safe
0
25
50
75
100
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for VEA is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

Shareholder Yield
Dividend Yield
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Buyback Yield
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Debt Paydown Yield
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Ownership

VEA Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
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12 Months
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Profile

Viva Energy Group Ltd Logo
Viva Energy Group Ltd

Country

Australia

Industry

Energy

Market Cap

4.2B AUD

Dividend Yield

5.27%

Description

Viva Energy Group Ltd. engages in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of petroleum products. The company is headquartered in Melbourne, Victoria. The company went IPO on 2018-07-13. The firm's segments include Retail, Fuels and Marketing, Refining, Supply, and Corporate and Overheads. Retail, Fuels, and Marketing segment consists of both retail and commercial sales and marketing of fuel and specialty products in Australia under the Shell, Liberty, Westside Petroleum, and Viva Energy brands as well as generation of substantial non-fuel income. Refining segment owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Corio, Victoria, refines crude oil into petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. The company also manufactures and produces specialty products, such as liquid petroleum gas, bitumen, oils, and chemical products. Supply, Corporate, and Overheads segment owns and manages an integrated supply chain of terminals, storage facilities, depots, pipelines, and distribution assets throughout Australia to facilitate product distribution and delivery through wholesale and retail sites.

Contact

VICTORIA
Melbourne
Level 16, 720 Bourke Street,, Docklands
+61388234444.0
investor.vivaenergy.com.au

IPO

2018-07-13

Employees

1 227

Officers

CEO, MD & Executive Director
Mr. Scott A. Wyatt BCA
Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Carolyn Pedic
Chief Executive Officer of Convenience & Mobility
Mr. Jevan Bouzo
Head of Investor Relations
Cameron Sinclair
Chief People & Culture Officer
Ms. Natasha Cuthbert
Chief Strategy Officer
Mr. Lachlan Alistair Pfeiffer B.Com., L.L.B., M.A.I.C.D.
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Chief Digital & Transformation Officer
Ms. Amanda Fleming
Company Secretary
Ms. Cheng Tang AGIA, B.Com., L.L.B.
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one VEA stock?

The intrinsic value of one VEA stock under the Base Case scenario is 9.76 AUD.

Is VEA stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 2.62 AUD, Viva Energy Group Ltd is Undervalued by 73%.

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