Santos Ltd
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one STO stock under the Base Case scenario is 12.66 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 6.73 AUD, Santos Ltd is Undervalued by 47%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Santos Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Santos Ltd. is a leading independent oil and gas producer based in Australia, with a legacy that dates back to 1954. The company operates across the entire energy spectrum, engaging in exploration, production, and development of oil and gas projects in not only Australia but also in several international locations, including Papua New Guinea and the Asia-Pacific region. Notably, Santos has made significant strides in sustainability and innovation, incorporating advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) into its operations. This commitment to environmentally-friendly practices positions Santos favorably as global energy demands evolve and investors increasingly prioritize...
Santos Ltd. is a leading independent oil and gas producer based in Australia, with a legacy that dates back to 1954. The company operates across the entire energy spectrum, engaging in exploration, production, and development of oil and gas projects in not only Australia but also in several international locations, including Papua New Guinea and the Asia-Pacific region. Notably, Santos has made significant strides in sustainability and innovation, incorporating advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) into its operations. This commitment to environmentally-friendly practices positions Santos favorably as global energy demands evolve and investors increasingly prioritize responsible investment opportunities.
As an investor, one might find Santos’s strategic initiatives and robust portfolio particularly appealing. The company has successfully navigated fluctuations in commodity prices, demonstrating resilience and a strong ability to adapt. With projects like the coveted Barossa gas project and the integration of renewable energy sources, Santos is positioning itself for long-term growth in a transforming energy landscape. Furthermore, its healthy dividend yield and focus on operational efficiency signal stability and promise potential returns. In a world where energy transition is imperative, Santos Ltd. stands out as a company actively innovating to maintain relevance, making it an attractive consideration for investors seeking both growth and sustainability.
Santos Ltd. is one of the largest independent oil and gas producers in Australia, with a diverse range of operations in the exploration, production, and development of oil and gas resources. Its core business segments can generally be categorized as follows:
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Oil Production: Santos has significant interests in various oil fields in Australia and internationally. This segment involves exploring, producing, and selling crude oil. The company focuses on optimizing production efficiency and maintaining sustainable practices.
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Gas Production: A major component of Santos’s portfolio is natural gas, which is increasingly important as a cleaner energy source. This segment includes the exploration and production of natural gas from both conventional and unconventional resources.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Santos is a key player in the LNG market, producing liquefied natural gas primarily for export. This segment encompasses the development of LNG facilities and long-term contracts to supply gas to international markets, reflecting the growing global demand for cleaner energy alternatives.
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Domestic Gas Supply: Alongside LNG exports, Santos is involved in supplying natural gas to the domestic Australian market. This segment supports local industries and power generation, contributing to energy security in Australia.
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Development Projects: Santos undertakes various development projects aimed at enhancing its existing operations and exploring new opportunities. This includes investments in technology and infrastructure to improve efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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Renewable Energy Initiatives: Although traditionally focused on fossil fuels, Santos is increasingly looking into renewable energy initiatives and technologies. This involves exploring opportunities in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen production, and other sustainable energy solutions as part of a broader strategy for energy transition.
These segments highlight Santos Ltd.'s strategic focus on balancing traditional oil and gas operations with a commitment to sustainability and renewable energy, aligning with global energy trends and market demands.
Santos Ltd, an Australian oil and gas exploration and production company, has several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the energy sector:
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Geographic Portfolio: Santos has a diverse asset base across Australia and Papua New Guinea, which reduces risk exposure to any single market or regulatory environment. This geographic diversity allows the company to take advantage of different regulatory frameworks and resource opportunities.
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Established Infrastructure: The company has significant investments in infrastructure, including pipelines, processing facilities, and gas plants. This robust infrastructure enables cost efficiencies and enhances logistical capabilities, providing a competitive edge over players with less developed operations.
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Strong Strategic Partnerships: Santos has cultivated relationships with key industry players, including joint ventures with major oil and gas companies. These collaborations often provide access to complementary resources and technology, improving exploration success and operational efficiency.
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Experienced Management Team: The company benefits from a highly experienced management team with a deep understanding of the industry dynamics, regulatory frameworks, and market trends. This expertise allows for more informed decision-making and strategic planning.
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Focus on Natural Gas: Santos has a strategic emphasis on natural gas, especially as the world transitions to cleaner energy sources. Its investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) position it well in a market that increasingly favors lower emissions. This focus can help it gain a competitive advantage as demand for cleaner fuels rises.
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Operational Efficiency: Santos has undertaken various initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, including cost reduction programs and technological advancements. Streamlining operations can lead to lower production costs compared to competitors, providing better margins in a cyclical industry.
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Sustainability Initiatives: Santos has committed to long-term sustainability goals, including carbon reduction strategies and transitioning to low-emission technologies. As investors and consumers increasingly prioritize sustainability, these commitments may enhance Santos's brand value and attract ethical investments.
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Development of New Projects: Ongoing development of new projects, such as gas fields in northern Australia and expansions in East Coast markets, positions Santos for future growth. This proactive approach can ensure it remains ahead of competitors regarding supply and market presence.
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Strong Balance Sheet: Financial stability allows Santos to weather economic downturns better than more leveraged competitors. A solid balance sheet provides flexibility for investment in growth opportunities and maintaining dividends even during challenging market conditions.
These competitive advantages combine to create a strong position for Santos Ltd in the oil and gas sector, enabling it to navigate challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities effectively.
Santos Ltd, an Australian oil and gas company, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Volatile Commodity Prices: Fluctuations in oil and gas prices can significantly affect revenue and profitability. A decline in global demand or oversupply due to geopolitical events or alternative energy adoption can lead to lower prices.
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Regulatory Environment: Changes in environmental regulations, carbon pricing, and greenhouse gas emissions policies could impose additional costs or affect market access. Stricter regulations on oil and gas exploration and production may require significant investments in compliance.
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Operational Risks: The exploration and production processes involve inherent risks, including equipment failure, operational accidents, and natural disasters, which could disrupt production and lead to financial losses.
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Geopolitical Risks: Political stability in regions where Santos operates or sources its resources can affect supply chains and operational viability. Sanctions, trade disputes, or conflicts can further complicate these dynamics.
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Transition to Renewable Energy: As the world shifts towards more sustainable energy sources, demand for fossil fuels may decline in the long term. Santos must adapt its strategies to remain relevant in a rapidly changing energy landscape.
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Financial Leverage and Debt Levels: If Santos has significant debt levels, rising interest rates or declining revenues can strain financial stability, limiting growth opportunities or threatening solvency.
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Competition: The energy sector is highly competitive, with pressure from both traditional peers and emerging renewable energy companies. Santos must continuously innovate and manage costs to maintain its competitive edge.
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Public Perception and Social License to Operate: Increasing scrutiny from environmental activists and local communities can impact Santos's ability to operate. The company must engage effectively with stakeholders to maintain its social license.
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Technological Challenges: The oil and gas industry is becoming more reliant on technology for exploration, production, and operational efficiency. Santos must invest in the right technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
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Market Demand Fluctuations: Changes in global energy demand, especially due to economic downturns or shifts towards electrification, can impact Santos’s sales and growth prospects.
By integrating these risks into strategic planning and maintaining a focus on long-term value creation, Santos can better navigate potential challenges in its operational environment.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Santos Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Santos Ltd
Current Assets | 3.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.7B |
Receivables | 892m |
Other Current Assets | 472m |
Non-Current Assets | 26.4B |
Long-Term Investments | 415m |
PP&E | 23B |
Intangibles | 1.3B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.7B |
Current Liabilities | 2.8B |
Accounts Payable | 973m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.8B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 11.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 5.5B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 5.8B |
Earnings Waterfall
Santos Ltd
Revenue
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5.8B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-3.5B
USD
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Gross Profit
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2.2B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-403m
USD
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Operating Income
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1.8B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-563m
USD
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Net Income
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1.3B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Santos Ltd
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
The company maintains its guidance of 6 million tonnes per annum, looking to expand GLNG operations. Capital expenses have risen over 30% due to contractor issues, such as capability and capacity, impacting productivity and causing delays. However, progress is substantial, with major components in place and startup slated for early 2024, despite higher costs. On another front, Barossa project's Phase 1 remains within the original scope, now budgeted at $4.3 billion, up from $3.6 billion.
What is Earnings Call?
STO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Santos Ltd's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Santos Ltd's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
STO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Santos Ltd's solvency score is 39/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Santos Ltd's solvency score is 39/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
STO Price Targets Summary
Santos Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STO is 8.24 AUD with a low forecast of 7.58 AUD and a high forecast of 9.13 AUD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for STO is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
STO Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Dividend Yield
Description
Santos Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The company is headquartered in Adelaide, South Australia and currently employs 3,786 full-time employees. The firm is engaged in exploration and production activities in Australia. The firm sells Gas, ethane, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The firm's segments comprise its key assets/operating areas: Cooper Basin; Queensland and NSW, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Northern Australia and Timor-Leste, and Western Australia. The Cooper Basin produces natural gas, gas liquids and crude oil. Gas is sold primarily to domestic retailers, industry and for the production of liquefied natural gas, while gas liquids and crude oil are sold in domestic and export markets. GLNG produces LNG for export to global markets from the LNG plant at Gladstone. The gas from GLNG is also sold into domestic markets.
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The intrinsic value of one STO stock under the Base Case scenario is 12.66 AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 6.73 AUD, Santos Ltd is Undervalued by 47%.