Sandfire Resources Ltd
ASX:SFR
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Sandfire Resources Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q1-2024 Analysis
Sandfire Resources Ltd
Sandfire Resources has started the fiscal year with a strong performance, delivering a 17% increase in production in the first quarter, with copper equivalent production rising to 31,000 tonnes. The company's net debt rose slightly to AUD 454 million, attributed to accrued costs associated with the wind-down of the DeGrussa project. This indicates a phase of transition, focusing resources on other projects that promise better returns and growth.
The MATSA asset is performing according to the company's plan, operating at a record rate and contributing significantly to copper equivalent production. Exploration efforts at MATSA have been fruitful, extending the San Pedro mineralized zone by another 100 meters, with plans to further increase reserves. Additionally, Motheo, the company's growth engine, commenced commercial production in July, with plans to expand its annualized capacity to produce over 50,000 tonnes of copper by FY'25. This is a clear sign of Sandfire's strategic focus on scaling up operations and solidifying its market position.
Cost control remains a focal point for the company, with a mention of C1 unit costs at $1.65 per pound for the quarter indicating efficiency in production. Investment in mobile filter presses, which assist in processing efficiency, have a modest impact on costs, showing prudent management in operational expenses. Discussions also revealed insights into the company's handling of currency fluctuations and contractor productivity improvements as tools for maintaining a competitive cost structure.
The executive team remains optimistic, projecting strong medium and long-term fundamentals for the copper market. Sandfire Resources is poised to deliver substantial growth, targeting a 50% increase in copper equivalent production by the end of FY’25. This forward-looking stance suggests that management is confident in their ability to navigate both operational challenges and market dynamics, aiming to leverage their assets for substantial growth in the coming years.
With ongoing exploration and development projects, Sandfire is acting on its strategy to extend mine life and boost production capability. The executive team emphasized the potential in the Motheo region, where encouraging intercepts offer opportunities for resource expansion. By prioritizing targets that promise higher volume and grade, Sandfire aims to optimize the capitalization of its asset portfolio.
Wrapping up the call, the executives reaffirmed Sandfire's strong start to the year, stressing the non-linear nature of mining and the continuous effort required to advance. The confidence expressed by the executives underscores a company dedicated to growth, efficiency, and sustainable operation.
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Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Sandfire Resources September 2023 Quarterly Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Brendan Harris, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director. Please go ahead.
Hello and good morning. I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which we stand, the Whadjuk people of the Noongar nation, as well as the First Nations peoples of the lands on which Sandfire conducts its business, we pay our respects to the elders and leaders past, present and emerging.
My name is Brendan Harris, CEO of Sandfire Resources and welcome to the quarterly call. I'm joined here in Perth by Jason Grace, our Chief Operating Officer; Richard Holmes, our Chief Development Officer; and Megan Jansen, who commenced as our Chief Financial Officer on October 2. Megan, welcome to your first quarterly call. It's great to have you on the team.
Turning to our quarterly results. You will have seen the various ASX's releases that we posted this morning. Some of you may have seen the short video we posted on our website to showcase our newest mine, Motheo.
To safety, our continued focus in this critical area is reflected in the record TRIF of 1.2 we achieved at the end of the quarter but we have more to do and always will. Nothing is more important than our people going home safe and well at the end of every shift. More broadly, we want to be consistent and predictable and we started the year well, such that our production cost and capital expenditure guidance has been retained for the full year.
And the promised growth is coming through with a 17% increase in production delivered in the first quarter, taking copper equivalent production to 31,000 tonnes. This underpins sales revenue of AUD 201 million and underlying operations EBITDA of AUD 81 million for an operating margin of 40% or 44%, excluding DeGrussa.
Our net debt rose to AUD 454 million with the AUD 24 million increase a function of previously accrued costs associated with the wind down of DeGrussa, the establishment of finished goods inventory at Motheo as we ramped up operations. You recall, we talked about that on the last call and a temporary increase in interest payments at MATSA.
Pleasingly, MATSA is tracking to plan. Our underground mines operated at a record 4.6 million tonne per annum rate while our processing facility operated at a 4.5 million tonne per annum rate, producing 14,900 tonnes of copper and 18,500 tonnes of zinc, the copper equivalent production of 22,200 tonnes.
Of course, this means we are building surface stocks as planned, giving us greater control over our process blends. And importantly, copper recoveries in our Poly line increased by 5% to 73%. While we're far from claiming victory, we're very pleased with these promising results.
Shifting gears, we have continued to mitigate inflation at MATSA, holding underlying mine operating costs at AUD 70 per tonne of ore processed, meaning we start the year with a small buffer against full year guidance of AUD 78 per tonne. A reduction in byproduct revenue did, however, mean that MATSA's implied C1 unit costs increased to $2.04 per pound.
On the exploration front, we have confirmed another 100-meter extension to the San Pedro mineralized zone, taking it to a known strike length of 700 meters and we have identified 2 conductors at Magdalena, 1 down plunge of Masa 2 and the other northwest of the western edge of Masa 2 as well.
We will be drill testing these anomalies across the remainder of FY '24. And more broadly, we've tasked our team to develop a multiyear plan designed to materially increase our reserves at MATSA. This is one of our biggest value levers.
Talking of value levers, let's go back to Motheo, our exciting growth engine that achieved commercial production in July, 45 days after the commencement of commissioning activities. This was one of many milestones achieved in the period. Our first shipment of concentrate was loaded in Namibia and the transition from our project team to operations was largely seamless as our T3 mine and adjacent processing plant achieved a copper equivalent production run rate of 34,000 tonnes per annum or 36,000 tonnes per annum when unfiltered concentrate is taken into account.
I'm sure you'd agree, an outstanding start to life for MATSA, well done to everyone on the team. That's not to say it's been entirely smooth sailing. We have had some challenges, with the filter press particularly, which forced us to constrain the front end of the plant for much of the quarter. But we're making progress on this front, too, achieving a 3.4 million tonne per annum run rate in September proving we have plenty left in the tank.
On the cost side, while it's early days, we have been pleased overall with an underlying mine operating cost of AUD 37 per tonne of ore processed implying a C1 unit cost of $1.65 per pound for the quarter. We've also commenced initial earthworks at the high-grade A4 deposit and the expansion of annualized capacity to 5.2 million tonnes per annum remains on time and on budget, ensuring Motheo is prime to produce more than 50,000 tonnes of copper in FY '25.
Turning to the drill bit. We commenced resource definition drilling at the A1 prospect in the period and aim to have a maiden resource estimate defined in the March quarter. At the completion of this program, the rigs will shift to A4, where we'll be testing the extent of the ore body, which remains open in all directions. There's so much potential in the Kalahari Copper Belt and we've just scratched the surface.
So in conclusion, we're on track. The medium and long-term fundamentals for copper remains strong and we are incredibly well positioned to deliver 50% growth in copper equivalent production from continuing operations across the 2 years to the end of FY '25.
We appreciate your interest and value your time. I will now open the call to questions. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Mitch Ryan from Jefferies.
Quick one. I know I missed it, been a bit late on today but just, can you give us some color on the RoM inventory build at MATSA that's one of the key sort of deliverables over the medium term, how that's tracking over the quarter and how -- yes.
We do realize, by the way, it's a very busy morning. We did note the number of companies reporting. Look, you're right. There's a number of things we're focused on. We've talked about development and driving development hard in the underground. We talked about adding ventilation and opening the [indiscernible] in the underground is starting to see that predictability and consistency again, to reiterate a record 4.6 million tonne rate across the underground line this period.
But, of course, the processing rate running around 4.5 million tonnes. And if you look at the data tables and I hope you've seen that we've actually -- this is the last, hopefully, of the shifts in how our disclosure is tabled to the investment community. But we've really tried to put all of the data in 1 document, the word document. And so you've got that series of tables at the back.
You'll see there that the difference between total metal produced and sold was pretty much in line. But in terms of processing rates versus production rates, it's around 30,000 tonnes of stock that's on the pad. And look, we're aiming to build up around 100,000 tonnes this year. And as we said, it's all about getting greater control of those processing blends and of course, you're starting to see the improvement in recovery coming through. But Jason, why don't you just provide a little bit of color around that program.
Thanks, Brendan and thanks, Mitch. Look, Mitch, you've been to MATSA and you've seen how we operate over there. So one of the imbalances that we've been dealing with since we took ownership has been that the mill outperforms on a volume basis compared to the underground mine. And what we've seen is we regularly draw down those [indiscernible] stock and end up just being hand to mouth out there.
So in essence, whatever comes up from the mine goes straight into the mill. So what we're doing at the moment is deliberately building a reasonable level of surface stocks to make sure that we've got the opportunity to putting in our planned blends into the mill on a regular basis. And we've got the opportunity to make sure that we're configuring the mill for the ore in an optimal way as it's been presented.
So our strategy and as we've talked about before, is that we're deliberately set up the year to exceed mine production when compared to mill production for the full year and we've delivered that in the first quarter. And in rough numbers here, I think we've built about 25,000 to 30,000 tonnes of stock in the first quarter. So we're certainly on track to deliver that outcome.
Perfect. I appreciate that color. My second question and I know it's less of a primary focus for the market. But Black Butte. Brendan, have you had a chance to get to that asset since sitting in the seat and what's your current sort of view around the strategy of progressing that asset?
Yes. Look, I promised to others, we didn't set this up beforehand. I'm actually flying out on Saturday evening. Jason and myself, we've actually got a couple of directors. We're going to Black Butte. We'll be there next week. I'm also going to meet investors on the East Coast primarily. So looking forward to doing that, getting a thorough briefing on the current status of the permitting process. And of course, a better understanding of the resource drilling that we're aiming to do this year and the potential that we see.
As we've said many times over the last sort of 9 months, we do anticipate that within the next 12 to 18 months, we'll have much greater visibility of where we're taking this project. So yes, Mitch, watch this space. And perhaps next time we speak, you can ask the question, I'll be able to give you a first-hand experience.
Your next question comes from Paul Young from Goldman Sachs.
Brendan, it's 1 quarter in and you've left FY '24 guidance unchanged. So I got a few questions though, on just the operating performance by asset. And first one, just on MATSA and zinc recoveries, which are good -- well, so I guess, the first thing is, good to see that the copper recovery is improving a touch. But on the zinc recoveries, how do you get them up to where they used to be 77% to 78% or thereabouts. I mean I know that the head grade dropped and if recoveries are a function of head grade. But can you maybe just step through how you actually list using recoveries?
Yes. Look, I'll pass over to Jason in a moment. I think a lot of this gets back to how we manage process blends. And [indiscernible] with Rob Scargill, who runs MATSA in London last week or the week before last indeed. And one of the big things, Paul, that, that I think there's been a recognition is getting this collaboration between our geotechnical experts and our processing plant team. And you would understand that there's always a risk then when you're running a chemistry set like we are, that you literally look at it in terms of contained copper, contained zinc. And you are aiming to manage your flocculants, basically float cells, to effectively deliver a recovery outcome in that sort of vanilla sense.
The reality is, as Rob says, quite nicely, we're not recovering copper or zinc, we're actually recovering [indiscernible] for instance, [indiscernible] for instance. And so what we're doing with -- because that's actually what works in the chemistry set in terms of the flotation circuit.
And so what we now have is a process whereby, one, we've got some stock on the ground. We'll build that further as we said. Our teams are walking over the RoM pile with our geologists weekly and looking at not only the chemistry but looking at the mineralogy that's being presented and that is allowing them to adjust, if you like, the way that they're setting up the float circuit in the order of once a week.
You're not changing it daily because that wouldn't be practical. But you're getting a greater degree of visibility and therefore, ability to respond and plan. I think the other thing, of course, Paul, you said quite rightly, is, to some extent, it's always going to be a function of the type of material that you're handling. What I might do is just pass to Jason quickly to talk about the profile for zinc production. Obviously, zinc was weaker because of effectively the mine plan and the [indiscernible] of some higher zinc grade stocks.
I'll pass it to Jason because he might give you a sense of how that will track and perhaps add anything final on the zinc recoveries.
Yes, thanks. If we look at the year and building from quarter 1 for this financial year, we expect quarter 2 to be roughly about 15% higher in terms of zinc production. And then we see a step up there into the second half of the year to close out the year in terms of guidance.
Copper, as we've touched on before, we expect it to be pretty stable or very stable quarter-on-quarter throughout the year as well. And really just building on Brendan's comments there, I think you've captured it really well. We're coming at this from multiple angles. So predictability of blend into the plant and even going back with the geometallurgy work that we're doing at the moment, understanding our ore body, understanding the best way to treat that, is coming back into our mine plan and into our geological interpretations and that work that we've been doing now for over 18 months is really starting to give us some benefit and then translating that through into real improvements around reagent regimes, dosing and maximizing value coming out at the back end of the plant.
Yes. And look, I'm glad Paul you're asking us about zinc because it is about NSR for us. I'd also stress, I mean we're really pleased to see the increase in recovery, copper recovery in the Poly line. We're certainly not suggesting that, that's set a trend. We're going to continue to battle and challenge that. I'm sure we'll have some ebb and flow in that but certainly pleasing to see the directional trend that's initially at least become apparent.
Okay. And then maybe moving to Motheo, great performance, I should say, just on the mill throughput and glad to see you exceeded nameplate in October at 3.4 million tonnes per annum. But you did point out it was on softer ore, right, which is obviously leading to overgrind and then some challenges with the filtration throughput.
So I understand that MATSA and how that works. So maybe just on the ore -- the treatment of the ore, when do you flip over to the harder ore, which therefore, will probably test the mill, if it can maintain at 3.2. million tonnes. And then also, I noticed you have been mining lower grade or is that being stockpiled, Brendan and actually capitalize at the moment?
Yes. So what we do, Paul and it's a good point. And that's why we called it out in the document. I'll start with the latter part first, is we are obviously mining lower grade as we're working through the sequence and we do take that to stock. Just to give you a bit of comfort and it's probably a good question to ask others. We're very conservative with our accounting approach. We don't allocate dollar for dollar, tonne per tonne. We make sure that we allocate cost according to the contained metal or the grade. And that's to ensure that you're not left with a lot of low-grade material carrying a high cost. So that's possible to give you some comfort with that.
But it has provided somewhat of a small benefit on the C1. And that's also why we've been very cautious not to change guidance. I think we should obviously note that we're 1 quarter into commercial production and we certainly again need more time to get the level of confidence that we'd like to have. But again, as I said, it's a very, very good start.
In terms of the ore hardness, we're already starting to see the hardness increasing slowly. And I think it is somewhat of a linear trend, Paul. So we would expect that to come out at T3 at least over the next 12 months thereabouts. You're right. The interesting thing at the moment is you actually would like to running the SAG mill at a faster rate even above 3.4 million tonnes because the faster we can run that throughput rate, the less resonance time you'll have in the SAG mill, which will help with grind size, which then will help with the filtration circuit.
The reality is, though, you get a blockage or a bottleneck at the back end. So what we've obviously done in the near term is we've added plates to the filtration press and we've got these mobile filters coming in. Actually, the pads being what's being laid and we'll bring those in, in the coming months and we should be commissioning into the back end of next month. And then we've got the replacement filter press, all of that will give us significantly excess filtration capacity.
And look, you're right. I do anticipate that the power drill will start to rise as it gets harder. Our suspicion though is we're certainly going to find ourselves having ample capacity. Remember and we haven't even turned on the ball mill. So we're very well placed from a capacity perspective. And the teams are already starting to challenge themselves and think about where the bottlenecks will, if you like, reveal themselves to be in the event that we start pushing above 5.2 million tonnes ultimately and hopefully quickly.
Your next question comes from Levi Spry from UBS.
Maybe just starting on costs. So good start. Can you just talk to what you're expecting to see over the course of FY '24 given you started sort of unit cost 10% below. Is there anything specifically you can call out that will see [indiscernible] back up to [ 78 ] and MATSA [ 41 ], [indiscernible] processing in that one?
Yes. Look, I think there's firstly 1 variable that I would just ensure everyone focuses on, is currency. I've always said the biggest driver of cost is FX and the U.S. dollar has been somewhat stronger, of course, similar to last quarter but it's a variable we need to monitor.
Over and above that, again, as you said, cost performance has been good. Power costs are sitting in the order of 10% of the total cost base. You would have picked up or may have picked up in our documentation. We have now put in place because there was liquidity available for us to ensure that 85% of our power costs are effectively now fixed to the end of the coming Northern Hemisphere winter. We just want to take that risk off the table. And that's at around a rate of just below current spot levels, which should mean that barring other significant movements, power will remain around that level.
So I don't see power as being a big variable for us as we move through the course of this year. Beyond that, there's the usual, I guess, variability -- and indeed, that is why we've been loath to change guidance at this early juncture. We've managed to mitigate inflation quite well, again to this point. We are starting to see some good wins in the productivity area. Indeed, Rob will talk about in underground development from shift to shift achieving upwards of 15% improvement in productivity coming through now from where we started.
But again, we're not seeing that as a permanent trend but we're certainly seeing very encouraging signs. So look, I'd really encourage you at this early stage to continue to work towards guidance. And clearly, we'll provide another update at the half year results.
Got it. And just last one. Can I just confirm, so when are you expecting Motheo to be at 5.2 million tonnes, just triangulate between construction and accessing that ore and stuff?
Yes. So assuming these mobile filter presses work for us and just for the benefit of everyone, we're going to have 2 on site. Initially, they're costing just over AUD 100,000 a month to rent, so it's not significant additional cost. And they will be commissioning, as I said, through the back end of the coming months and we should, therefore, see quite a, hopefully, a good finish to the year. That will take us up to having around 5.2 million tonnes of filter capacity.
That then means, of course, as the ball mill comes on and the expansion of the broader processing circuit is completed and that is tracking to plan. That will get us to 5.2 million tonnes of capacity at the end of this calendar year. That means that we'll be ramping up from T3 ore through the first half of next financial year and quite quickly to 5.2. million tonnes. And then the A4 deposit, which is higher grade comes on at the commencement of FY '25, which is what gives you the production kicker into FY '25.
Your next question comes from Kaan Peker from RBC.
Just a simple question, probably a follow-on from Paul's question, [indiscernible] changed this quarter. Is it just the grind because that's on the results and as you mentioned focus on dilution and recovery. I'll circle back with a second.
Yes. So we've said now -- you might recall one, I think it was the first quarterly call I sat on. And it was having been at that MATSA, what I felt was that there was a desire to continue to push hard to try and achieve 4.7 million tonnes almost irrespective of the impacts elsewhere. And what was apparent to me, it would be better for us to enable the operation to stabilize to what to have sort of always done and actually get development ahead, get ventilation where we needed to be, open up more mining areas but equally enable us to manage dilution.
That was really the primary focus and then feeding into recoveries as we've talked about. So no change there. I would suggest to you that I'm yet to see an underground mine that doesn't have a change in sequencing. Having followed Cannington for 20 years and worked very closely monitoring it, as an example, that mine had significant sequencing and resequencing almost every quarter and I think MATSA is very similar. Jason, maybe you can just go into that.
Yes. I mean, Brendan's correct there. The resequencing of Magdalena is all about making sure that we're optimizing mine production and maintaining the rates that we need to do that as well. So what we've seen in the past is we encounter ground condition issues, particularly in our production areas. And what it's done -- because we haven't had the developed stocks to give us flexibility in our plan, it's actually impacted us in terms of a lower production rate, which translates through to lower metal production.
Now what we're seeing now at the moment, the investment that we are making in additional developed stocks gives us that resilience. And what we've seen before is where we would reduce production, we're able to maintain that and keep going. But overall, what it means is that we slow down some areas to make sure that we optimize and get that all out correctly and then we're bringing forward other areas in the mine plan. And as Brendan said, it happens in every mine.
Underground. Yes.
Yes. Understood. Just more [indiscernible] that nothing has changed from the thinking as of the last quarter.
Just some of the normal course, Kaan.
Yes. And just secondly, it seems like the Spanish government is looking to extend the energy tax and have been talking about in the form of the wholesale electricity market, any impact expected from the policy change?
Look, we're very comfortable. We have put in place, obviously, long-term agreements with Endesa on renewable energy. I think there's one of the concerns when you read around the current Spanish grid relates to the fact that power from time to time goes negative at the moment because of the significant quantum of renewables that are in country. It's a very, very green grid.
And I think there's obviously a lot of debate and discussion around how that volatility is managed. But from our side and as we've said many times that we've got 3 tranches primarily. Rough numbers, around 30% was secured backdated to January 1 of this calendar year, around another 30%, just a little less kicks in, in next calendar year.
Both of those agreements, the latter was roughly around spot, just over EUR 100. And then the former was quite considerably below that, around 30% to 40% below. And then there's the last tranche that will come in when we have the dedicated solar facility. And that we're expecting that somewhere through probably CY '25, '26 just pending progress.
But of course, as I mentioned earlier, we've now put in place those forwards that also covers to 85% up until the end of the March quarter. And that was just purely managing the downside risk. We still see risk in that European energy market going into this winter with obviously significant geopolitical uncertainty.
Sure. Thanks, I'll pass it on. Appreciate it.
Your next question comes from Ben Lyons from Jarden Securities Limited.
Hopefully, 2 relatively simple ones from me. Just firstly, on the cash flow waterfall that's in your slide deck. Maybe this can be a nice half volley for Megan to get off the mark. But there's about a AUD 16 million back inflow that's attributed to DeGrussa, assume that's just the sort of flow-through of previous concentrate sales? And then maybe as we look forward on that particular asset, just confirming there's no further inflows that are expected and no material outflows apart from those holding costs that are referred to in the detail of the report.
Perfect. I'll pass to Megan.
Thank you, Brendan. Thank you, Ben. So during the quarter, we had our final sale for DeGrussa, so about 2,800 tonnes of copper. So the cash flows have come through. The net AUD 16 million is sort of AUD 28 million of revenue, more or less and then final costs associated with royalties and processing. The waterfall also does call out wind down costs, which we've called out as ones off and then largely people separation costs. They were captured and accounted for in FY '23 and what we're really looking at in the waterfall is the cash settlement of those wind down costs.
Then looking out to the remainder of FY '24, ongoing at this stage, we're anticipating ongoing DeGrussa [indiscernible] and maintenance costs in the vicinity of AUD 5 million for the remainder of the year.
Awesome. The second one is just on Botswana, obviously, also acknowledging the excellent ramp-up today. Congratulations. Just wondering if there's any observations you can provide about how the logistics chain is going over there. Obviously, it's quite a lengthy logistics chain. And sort of back calculating out the approximate volume of concentrate sold, it looks like it was about 15,000 tonnes. So as we sort of look for that ramp-up of sales and take into account that you're obviously building inventories through that supply chain, is that a standard kind of shipping amount that you think we should expect? Or will it vary if you go into a Black Butte kind of charters, et cetera?
Maybe I'll take the latter and then throw to Jason, on the logistics. As always, few bumps really early on but it's going quite nicely now, Ben. But you're right, the first shipment was around 15,000 tonnes. I think we actually referred to that in the initial announcement with regards to that inaugural sale. The typical shipments are likely to be in the order of 10,000 tonnes and typically, on average and it won't be perfect but we expect around 1.5 shipments a month. And of course, you don't sell half a ship but it means there will be some months where we'll get 2 ships away, other months where we'll get 1. That's pretty much the run rate then. But maybe, Jason, go into the logistics and how it's tracking.
Ben, we have the advantage, particularly with the logistics and the land-based logistics there to be able to start that during the commissioning period in Q4 of FY '23. So we've now -- and we're able to ramp that up slowly with the contractors that we're using over in Botswana and going over to Namibia there as well.
So what we're seeing at the moment is that they actually ramped up very well. They've got a core group of -- or core fleet of trucks that they own and they've also got the ability to draw on subcontractors that work out of Botswana and also in Namibia. So where we sit at the moment, we believe that the logistics chain is very robust. We have the ability to accelerate or decelerate as required. And everything we're seeing from Walvis Bay at the moment is really quite good. It is a truly modern port facility that's going to be well suited to our needs in the long term.
Your next question comes from Sam Catalano from Wilsons.
Two quick ones, hopefully. First one, just to push you a little bit more on the underlying operating costs at MATSA, you referenced earlier, currency impacts and the strong U.S. dollar. I wonder if you could perhaps talk to how those unit costs are tracking versus guidance in euros per tonne. Your comments in the release were fairly modest in talking about any gains. So I just wanted to sort of get how much of that is actually currency and how much is the underlying improvement?
No. Good question, then I think what I was really alluding to is you've got natural volatility. The actual quarter-on-quarter from June is not significantly different. I think the question was more about how do we see guidance over the full year. I was just flagging that the U.S. dollar has been strong. So if you saw that start to unwind, that would present some whatever cost headwind for us as we look to the rest of the year.
The bulk of the benefit we're seeing is some of those productivity gains that we're actually getting with our contractors. And so that is very real. But again, those are the variables that will come through. I don't know, Megan, if there's anything you wanted to add to that.
Thanks, Brendan. I would say it was from a go-forward '24 perspective, we tend to think about a percentage shift on the euro and broadly the impact that can have on the cost base. And broadly a 1% movement in that USD/Euro is around AUD 4 million impact on the cost base and that's over a full year. So that's just some sort of very rough guidance and a way to think about the movement in currency for the remainder of the year.
Yes. So just to be really clear, Sam, no significant benefit September quarter versus June quarter. It's more looking forward but it's something that we need to watch.
Understood. And then just the second one was just around -- is there anything we should read into the fact that payabilities were down at about 90% for the first shipments from the Motheo, which seems a bit low for a copper [ con ].
No, I don't think so. I mean one should remember that these first shipments will run off ultralow grade material and that they were sold as commissioning [ cons ]. And they had the issues in the filter press, they were sort of at the higher end on the moisture level. And so I wouldn't think -- you should think about that first shipment as being a function of the brand of the concentrate that we're looking to establish in the market over the coming 1, 2, 3, 5 years and beyond. But maybe, Jason, if there anything else you wanted to add?
No, I think you're correct. We're confident in the brand that our concentrate will have in the long term. And as Brendan said, we have literally been selling commissioning ore at the moment. And one of the things that we have seen with that ultra low-grade material, there is a slightly elevated lead and zinc, which has affected the payables during that period.
Now we know from our geological inter and our resource definition drilling but that trend doesn't continue at depths in this ore body. So it won't be an ongoing issue for us.
Your next question comes from Adam Baker from Macquarie.
Just in the quarterly report, there's a small comment on the regulatory approvals, the tailings facility at MATSA. I was just wondering if you could remind us how many years of tailings capacity you've got currently there? And when do you foresee needing the new TSF?
Very good. Look, I'll pass to Jason to give you the technical details and the time -- spend a bit of time on that when I was over there recently. Suffice to say, again, just to reiterate from last time I met with the concierge while I was there, there's an enormous amount of support for mining in the district. I think [indiscernible] recently got their approvals for their new tailings dam. We are very confident and we've just gone through the public consultation process. And whilst there's some comments that we need to respond to, very, very few, certainly, in the context of what you'd expect to receive if you're in the United States, Australia or elsewhere. So maybe, Jason, if you can just remind us on the time.
Yes, Adam. Look, according to our numbers at the moment, we require access and to be able to depositing tailings in that new facility by the start of 2027. And some of the work we're doing at the moment around tailings deposition may extend that out a little bit as well. The build time on that new facility is expected to be 18 months. So that brings us around about back to the middle of 2025 for the commencement of construction.
And at the moment, the permitting process, if we start to look from now forward, we're on track for completion of that process by the end of calendar year 2024. So by the end of next year. So on our numbers, we have a minimum of about 6 months flow between the expected permitting time line and the required commencement of construction.
Yes. And I think just to reiterate Jason's comments because, again, I spent quite a bit of time on this with Rob, there's quite a lot of other opportunities that we have that you could stretch that out quite considerably. So I think the best way to think about it is, it's certainly not something we think as being on a critical path at the moment. No, definitely not. That's a focus area, nonetheless.
Yes, it sounds like there's still a fair bit of headroom there. And then Motheo, pretty -- it sounds like you've got some encouraging exploration results at A1 with the mineral resource plan for the March quarter. Just wondering what your high-level thinking for possible pathway production at A1 is.
Yes. Look, it's still early. We are seeing encouragingly some intercepts shallower in the plan, so up dip, which is good because it's not a large resource. So the more shallower you've got certainly will help the economics. To give you a sense, we are hoping to identify somewhere in the order of 2 to 3 years of life at A1.
A4, we've mentioned that as we complete the drilling at A4, we'll go to A1. We're hoping that we can identify somewhere in the order of 1 to 2 years, time will tell. But that really starts to give you confidence of the pathway heading towards 15 years of life at Motheo. I wouldn't want to suggest to you, however, that therefore, it follows that A1 follows A4/T3.
And the reason I say that is, it's nice to build it in the bank to get confidence of life but we've gotten multiple numerous targets and very attractive, what we call prioritized targets within 70 kilometers of the processing facility that we will progressively be testing through the back end of this year and into next year as well. And so obviously, life is good.
The next step will be to test other areas because if you find volume and grade, they will jump the queue. And that's really what our main objective over the coming 2, 3, 4, 5 years will be at Motheo is to try and identify those resources that jump the queue, bring volume and bring grade.
[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to Mr. Harris for closing remarks.
I'll keep it very brief. You're all very busy. As I said, we really do appreciate your time and your interest. We think we had a great start to the year. Mining is never linear. So we're onwards and upwards, we'll keep grinding away and look forward to speaking with you at the end of the year. So have a good Christmas and speak to you through January, February. Thank you.