Qantas Airways Ltd
ASX:QAN
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one QAN stock under the Base Case scenario is 13.34 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 8.94 AUD, Qantas Airways Ltd is Undervalued by 33%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Qantas Airways Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Qantas Airways Ltd., often dubbed the "Flying Kangaroo," stands as Australia's flagship airline and a key player in the global aviation landscape. Established in 1920, Qantas has developed a reputation for safety, reliability, and service excellence, making it a trusted choice for domestic and international travelers alike. As an investor, understanding Qantas means recognizing its resilient business model, which includes a diverse range of offerings from passenger transport to freight services. The airline operates a comprehensive network, connecting Australia to over 85 destinations worldwide, while investing in modern fleets designed for improved fuel efficiency and reduced environmental...
Qantas Airways Ltd., often dubbed the "Flying Kangaroo," stands as Australia's flagship airline and a key player in the global aviation landscape. Established in 1920, Qantas has developed a reputation for safety, reliability, and service excellence, making it a trusted choice for domestic and international travelers alike. As an investor, understanding Qantas means recognizing its resilient business model, which includes a diverse range of offerings from passenger transport to freight services. The airline operates a comprehensive network, connecting Australia to over 85 destinations worldwide, while investing in modern fleets designed for improved fuel efficiency and reduced environmental impact.
In recent years, Qantas has navigated the tumultuous skies of the aviation industry, particularly through the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. As travel demand rebounds, the airline is positioning itself for a strong recovery with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency. With a focus on innovation—such as sustainable aviation practices and digital advancements—Qantas is not just aiming to reclaim its status as a market leader but also to achieve long-term growth. For investors, Qantas represents a unique opportunity in a cyclical industry, as it remains committed to optimizing its operations and capitalizing on the growing appetite for air travel in an increasingly interconnected world.
Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's flagship airline, operates through several core business segments. These segments are designed to optimize its operations and revenue generation in the highly competitive aviation industry. As of the latest available information, the core business segments include:
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Passenger Transport:
- International Flights: Qantas operates long-haul international services connecting Australia with destinations in North America, Europe, Asia, and beyond, catering to both leisure and business travelers.
- Domestic Flights: This segment includes regular domestic services across Australia, catering to the high demand for travel within the country.
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Qantas Freight:
- This segment focuses on air freight services, transporting cargo domestically and internationally. Qantas Freight utilizes passenger aircraft for cargo services and operates dedicated freighter aircraft, catering to businesses requiring logistics solutions.
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Qantas Loyalty:
- The Qantas Loyalty program generates revenue through its frequent flyer program, which allows members to earn points through flights, retail partnerships, and other services. This segment also plays a significant role in customer retention and engagement, enhancing overall brand loyalty.
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Jetstar Airways:
- Jetstar is a subsidiary of Qantas that operates as a low-cost carrier. This segment competes in the domestic and international budget travel market, offering reduced fares and a simplified service model, targeting price-sensitive travelers.
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Qantas Group Engineering and Maintenance:
- This segment involves aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services within the Qantas Group. It serves both the Qantas fleet and third-party clients, contributing to the overall efficiency and safety of operations.
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Other Services:
- This includes ancillary services like travel insurance, car rentals, and holiday packages. It may also encompass the airline’s cargo services, airport lounges, and consultancy services, enhancing the overall travel experience for customers.
By diversifying its operations across these segments, Qantas Airways aims to mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in passenger travel demand, while also capitalizing on various revenue streams.
Qantas Airways Ltd has several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the aviation industry:
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Strong Brand Recognition: Qantas is one of the oldest airlines in the world and has built a strong brand reputation over nearly a century of operation. Its image as "The Spirit of Australia" resonates well with customers, instilling trust and loyalty.
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Extensive Domestic Network: Qantas operates a comprehensive domestic network across Australia, providing it with a strong market presence. This extensive reach leads to significant economies of scale and allows for better connectivity and frequency of services.
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Loyalty Programs and Customer Retention: The Qantas Frequent Flyer program is one of the most recognized loyalty programs globally, increasing customer retention and enhancing revenue through ancillary services related to the program.
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Operational Excellence and Safety: Qantas has a strong safety record and is known for its operational efficiency. This reputation enhances customer confidence and provides a competitive edge in attracting passengers who prioritize safety and reliability.
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International Partnerships and Alliances: Qantas is a founding member of the Oneworld alliance, which allows it to offer a broader range of services and destinations through code-sharing agreements. These partnerships enhance its global network and provide customers with seamless travel options.
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Fleet Modernization: Qantas has invested significantly in modernizing its fleet with fuel-efficient aircraft like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. This not only improves operational efficiency but also reduces environmental impact, aligning with growing customer preferences for sustainability.
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Strategic Geographic Positioning: Australia’s geographical location allows Qantas to serve as a crucial link between the Americas, Europe, and Asia. This positioning attracts transit business and enhances its relevance in the international market.
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Strong Financial Position: Qantas has historically maintained a strong balance sheet relative to many of its competitors, enabling it to weather downturns in the economy better. A sound financial foundation allows for investments in growth and advancements in customer experience.
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Innovative Customer Experience Initiatives: Qantas continually invests in enhancing the customer experience, incorporating technology and service improvements, which help retain existing customers and attract new ones.
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Government Support and Regulations: As a national carrier, Qantas benefits from certain regulatory protections and potential government support, particularly in times of crisis, giving it a stability advantage over many competitors.
These advantages collectively position Qantas Airways Ltd favorably within the competitive landscape of the aviation industry, allowing it to maintain a strong market presence and drive sustainable growth.
Qantas Airways Ltd, like many airlines, faces a variety of risks and challenges that could impact its business in the near future. Below are some of the key risks and challenges:
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Economic Volatility: Fluctuations in the global economy can significantly affect consumer demand for air travel. Economic downturns can lead to reduced discretionary spending and lower passenger traffic.
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Fuel Prices: Volatility in fuel prices is a persistent challenge for airlines. A substantial increase in fuel costs can significantly affect operating margins, especially if Qantas is unable to pass these costs onto consumers through higher ticket prices.
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Regulatory Changes: Airlines operate under a complex framework of regulations that can change frequently. Compliance with these regulations can be costly and may require adjustments to operational practices.
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Competition: Intense competition from both domestic and international airlines, including low-cost carriers, can lead to price wars and reduced market share. Competitors may also innovate service offerings and customer experience, putting pressure on Qantas to keep up.
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Labor Relations: Qantas has historically had to deal with labor strikes and negotiations. Labor disputes can disrupt operations and lead to increased costs.
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Global Pandemics and Health Crises: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the vulnerability of the airline industry to health crises. Future outbreaks or pandemics could result in similar declines in passenger traffic and revenue.
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Environmental Concerns: Increasing scrutiny over the environmental impact of air travel could result in regulatory changes, higher taxes, or shifts in consumer preferences. Qantas will need to invest in more sustainable practices and technologies.
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Technological Disruptions: While advancements in technology can provide operational efficiencies, they also bring risks such as cybersecurity threats. Additionally, failure to innovate or integrating new technologies can hinder Qantas's competitiveness.
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Customer Preferences and Travel Behavior: Changes in consumer travel preferences, such as a shift towards remote work or alternative modes of transportation, can adversely affect demand.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Availability of aircraft, maintenance services, and parts supply chain issues can affect operations. Disruptions can lead to operational delays and increased costs.
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Geopolitical Risks: Changes in international relations, trade agreements, and military conflicts can affect travel routes and passenger demand.
Understanding and addressing these risks will be crucial for Qantas Airways Ltd to maintain its market position and ensure long-term sustainability. Continuous monitoring, strategic planning, and flexibility will be essential in navigating these challenges.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Qantas Airways Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Qantas Airways Ltd
Current Assets | 4B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2B |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 845m |
Non-Current Assets | 16.6B |
Long-Term Investments | 231m |
PP&E | 14.9B |
Intangibles | 638m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 843m |
Current Liabilities | 11.7B |
Accounts Payable | 2.9B |
Other Current Liabilities | 8.8B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 8.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 2.5B |
Earnings Waterfall
Qantas Airways Ltd
Revenue
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21.9B
AUD
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Cost of Revenue
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-10.7B
AUD
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Gross Profit
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11.3B
AUD
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Operating Expenses
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-9.2B
AUD
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Operating Income
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2.1B
AUD
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Other Expenses
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-815m
AUD
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Net Income
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1.3B
AUD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Qantas Airways Ltd
AUD | |
Free Cash Flow | AUD |
Qantas reported an underlying profit before tax of $2.08 billion for FY2024. Despite a $387 million decline due to increased investments and lower freight yields, the company demonstrated resilience with a post-tax statutory profit of $1.25 billion. Operating cash flow was robust at $3.4 billion, supported by second-half rebounds. The group is undergoing significant fleet renewal, adding 16 aircraft and investing $3.1 billion in CapEx. Qantas Domestic earned $1.06 billion in EBIT, while Qantas International saw $556 million. Moving into FY2025, Qantas guides a 2-4% RASK increase domestically and expects positive revenue momentum across all brands.
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QAN Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Qantas Airways Ltd's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Qantas Airways Ltd's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
QAN Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Qantas Airways Ltd's solvency score is 18/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Qantas Airways Ltd's solvency score is 18/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
QAN Price Targets Summary
Qantas Airways Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for QAN is 9.24 AUD with a low forecast of 8.08 AUD and a high forecast of 11.4 AUD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for QAN is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
QAN Insider Trading
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Profile
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Description
Qantas Airways Ltd. provides air transportation services. The company is headquartered in Mascot, New South Wales. The firm is focused on the operation of international and domestic air transportation services, the provision of freight services, and the operation of a frequent flyer loyalty program. The firm's segments include Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, Jetstar Group and Qantas Loyalty. The Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, and Jetstar Group are engaged in passenger flying business and air cargo and express freight businesses. The Qantas Loyalty segment is engaged in the customer loyalty recognition programs. Its main business is the transportation of customers using two airline brands, which include Qantas and Jetstar. Its airline brands operate in regional, domestic and international services.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one QAN stock under the Base Case scenario is 13.34 AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 8.94 AUD, Qantas Airways Ltd is Undervalued by 33%.