Origin Energy Ltd

ASX:ORG

Dividend Safety Rate is a comprehensive numerical rating that helps investors evaluate the risk associated with a company’s dividend payments. Ranging from 0 to 100, the rate provides an assessment where higher values denote greater security and lower likelihood of a dividend cut. This measure is particularly valuable for income-focused investors as it synthesizes key financial indicators including payout ratios, dividend history, and the overall financial health of the company.

By incorporating both dividend performance and broader financial metrics, the Dividend Safety Rate offers a holistic view of a company’s ability to maintain and potentially increase its dividend payments.

In calculating the Dividend Safety Rate, we consider a variety of financial metrics:

Multiple Payout Ratios: These include the current payout ratio and average historical payout ratios, which help assess how comfortably a company can cover its dividend payments with its earnings.

Dividend Growth Streak: The number of consecutive years a company has increased its dividend, indicating reliability and stability in its dividend policy.

Solvency and Profitability Ratios: These ratios evaluate a company’s ability to meet its long-term obligations and its overall financial health, which are crucial for sustaining dividend payments over time.

Dividend Yield is a financial ratio that shows how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its stock price. It is a popular metric among investors to gauge the return on investment from dividends alone, excluding any capital gains.

This metric is a key component of calculating Shareholder Yield as it directly measures the return on investment from dividends alone. Dividend Yield helps investors gauge the immediate income-generating capacity of their investment in the company, independent of any capital gains.

Including Dividend Yield provides a comprehensive view of the total returns a company offers to its shareholders, combining income from dividends with gains from buybacks and debt reduction.

Dividend Per Share (DPS) is a financial metric that quantifies the total amount of dividends declared by a company for each share of its common stock.

Payout Ratio is a key financial metric that measures the proportion of earnings a company pays to its shareholders in the form of dividends. It is expressed as a percentage and is calculated by dividing the total dividends paid by the company by its net income.

Shareholder Yield is an integrated metric that represents the total returns a company delivers to its shareholders, including dividends, share buybacks, and debt reduction. It offers a holistic view of a company's capital return strategies, going beyond simple dividend yields to encompass all forms of shareholder returns.

The calculation of Shareholder Yield involves summing the dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield:

• Dividend Yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividends per share by the stock price per share.

• Buyback Yield reflects the decrease in shares outstanding, showing how much a company is investing in repurchasing its shares.

• Debt Paydown Yield measures the reduction of debt in relation to the company’s market capitalization, highlighting efforts to reduce financial liabilities.

High Shareholder Yield is often associated with superior long-term performance in the stock market, making it a crucial measure for investors seeking stocks that consistently deliver high returns through dividends, buybacks, and effective debt management. This metric highlights the importance of looking beyond traditional dividend yields to consider how companies return capital to shareholders in other ways, enhancing overall investment analysis.

Buyback Yield measures how much a company reduces its outstanding shares through repurchases, expressed as a percentage. It is calculated by taking the decrease in shares outstanding during a period, dividing it by the total shares at the beginning of that period, and then converting this figure into a percentage.

This metric is crucial for calculating Shareholder Yield as it directly reflects the company’s efforts to return value to shareholders. By reducing the number of shares, buybacks can increase earnings per share and potentially boost the stock's price. Including Buyback Yield provides a fuller understanding of how capital is used to enhance shareholder returns, alongside dividends and debt reduction.

Debt Paydown Yield measures the amount of debt a company repays within a specific period, shown as a percentage of its market capitalization. It is calculated by taking the reduction in total debt from the beginning to the end of the period, dividing this amount by the company's market capitalization at the start of the period, and then expressing the result as a percentage.

This metric is important for calculating Shareholder Yield because it indicates how the company is using its capital to decrease financial liabilities, which can strengthen its financial health and potentially enhance shareholder value. Including Debt Paydown Yield in the Shareholder Yield calculation gives investors insight into the company's commitment to reducing debt alongside returning value through dividends and buybacks.

Price return decomposition is a method of analyzing the factors that contribute to the changes in the market capitalization of a company.

The price return decomposition breaks down the market cap return into two main components: the change in the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and the change in company earnings (as well as the change in revenue and net margin).

The change in the P/E multiple reflects the effect of changes in investor expectations and sentiment towards the company. A higher P/E multiple means that investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings, indicating higher expectations for future growth. Conversely, a lower P/E multiple indicates lower expectations.

The change in earnings, on the other hand, represents the actual changes in the company's earnings over the given period.

The change in revenue and net margin are two other factors that can impact a company's market cap. An increase in revenue indicates that the company is generating more sales, while an improvement in net margin indicates that the company is becoming more efficient and generating more profit from each dollar of sales.