Mount Gibson Iron Ltd

ASX:MGX

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Operator]

Thank you for joining today's teleconference for the release of Mount Gibson Iron's September quarter activities report. Mount Gibson Chief Executive Officer, Peter Kerr, will be leading the discussion and is joined by Chief Financial Officer, Gill Dobson; and External Relations Manager, John Phaceas. Mr. Kerr will provide a brief overview, after which there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Due to time constraints, only institutional participants will be invited to ask questions at that time. A recording of the call will also be available via the Mount Gibson website shortly after completion of today's teleconference.

And I will now hand you over to Peter. Thank you, Peter?

[Peter Kerr, executive]

Thanks, Lisa. Good morning all, and thanks for joining us to discuss Mount Gibson's September quarter report. As usual, I'll give a brief overview before handing back to Lisa for any questions you may have. And just as a reminder, all currency we mentioned in this call is denominated in Australian dollars, unless otherwise stated.

So as you've seen, Mount Gibson made a strong start to the new financial year with a record sales quarter from Koolan Island delivering significant positive cash flow and rapid growth in our cash and investment reserves. Sales from Koolan totaled 1.33 million wet metric tonnes, which was 4% more than the preceding quarter, while unit costs were reduced by 10% to $56 per metric tonne FOB before royalties compared with $62 in the June quarter. Total cash flow increased to $124 million with an average operating cash flow margin of $86 per wet metric tonne sold.

Consequently, our cash and investment reserves grew by $95 million to $257 million at the end of the quarter, notably excluding the recently acquired shares and options in Fenix Resources, which were valued at about $15 million at quarter end. We look forward to working with Fenix and benefiting from our ongoing exposure to the expected growth in bulk commodity exports from the Mid-West region through the recent sale of our assets and the consolidation often with those Fenix Resources. And we are now the largest shareholder in Fenix at just under 9%.

We also continue to be encouraged by our early-stage base metal exploration efforts in the region, and I'll talk quickly about those. Firstly, on the safety front, which is obviously a fundamental priority for our business. Our operating teams are commended for achieving substantial improvement in overall safety performance over the last 12 months. The Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate was 0.7 injuries per 1 million man-hours worked on a rolling 12-month basis at the end of the September quarter, and that was down half from 1.4 at the end of the previous corresponding period of '22.

In relation to the broader measure of place performance, our rolling 12-month Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate did increase slightly to 6.7 injuries at the end of the quarter, reflecting the increase of 2-nonlife threatening restricted work injuries. But this still remains below the 8.5 level that we reported at the end of the previous corresponding period in 2022. So plenty of work continues on resuming the downward trends in injury incidents.

Regarding Koolan in more detail. Iron ore production was steady relative to the prior quarter of just over 1 million tonne after some amendments to the sequencing of material movement following the rock slip in the Main Pit footwall in early August. The waste-to-ore stripping ratio also continued to reduce as expected and averaged 0.7 tonnes of waste for every tonne of ore in the quarter compared to 0.9:1 in the preceding quarter. The stripping ratio is obviously a key cost driver for us at Koolan Island, although it will have times increase in line with the waste extraction cycle is expected to remain at low average rates of approximately 1.2:1 over the remaining mine life.

As reported, a localized rock fall occurred in the section of the Island-side eastern footwall in the Main Pit on the 5th of August. The event was detected in advance by the site's continuous radar monitoring systems, and no injuries or equipment damage occurred. The impacted area wasn't being mined at the time and ore production is not scheduled to recommence in that location until the March '24 quarter. So while the ground conditions on that part of the footwall can be challenging and do require careful ground support and management, our current expectation is for remedial measures to enable mining to recommence in the impacted zone with limited impact on the current mine plan. However, further geotechnical assessment will occur as the ground support plan is implemented and will make changes as necessary.

In relation to processing, crushing volumes increased during the quarter and a mobile crushing contractor that continues to supplement the main plant to accelerate processing of the site's substantial high-grade ore stockpiles. Consequently, total processed volumes for the quarter increased to almost 1.2 million tonnes. High-grade ore stockpiles available for crushing totaled approximately 600,000 tonnes at the end of September.

With regards to the insurance claim for August '22 -- sorry, for the August '22 processing plant fire. The full property damage component is expected to total approximately $10 million, of which just under $8 million was received last financial year and $1 million was received during the September quarter. That leaves about $1 million to be received in the current December quarter. We continue to liaise with the company's insurers regarding a potential business interruption claim resulting from this fire. However, the timing likelihood and potential quantum of such a claim still remains uncertain at this time.

In relation to shipments, you would have seen that iron ore sales for the quarter totaled a record 1.33 million tonnes of high-grade ore, comprising 18 shipments being at an average of 6 per month. This bettered the 1.25 million tonnes we achieved in 17 shipments in the preceding quarter. The average grade of the September quarter shipments was 65.5% Fe, in line with the ore reserve estimate. Shipments from Koolan Island are undertaken in Panamax vessels, which typically carry cargoes ranging from 70,000 to 80,000 tonnes of iron ore.

Operating cash flow as a result of all of that activity from the operation continued to build in the period and totaled $115 million for the quarter, compared with $89 million in the prior quarter. Sales revenue totaled $208 million FOB. And just a reminder, we report our costs and sales Free on Board at Koolan Island rather than on delivery in China. Plus we also had $2 million in other income related primarily to insurance receipts and the sale of surplus assets. The key cash outflow items for the quarter comprise normal cash costs, including sustaining capital items totaling $75 million and royalties of $20 million. Unit cash operating costs before royalties reduced by 10%, as I mentioned earlier, to AUD 56 per tonne FOB stalled compared with $62 in the prior quarter. The prices and exchange rates in the quarter, that translated into strong cash flow and a margin of $86 per wet metric tonne that we sold.

Prices improved marginally in the quarter, while a high-grade premium moderated with the Platts CFR price for high-grade 65% Fe fines delivered to China averaging USD 125 per dry metric tonne. And this was a great adjusted premium of approximately 5% to the benchmark 62% Fe price. And that compared with similar price of USD 124 per tonne and a 7% premium in the prior quarter. We also benefited like other exporters from further weakness in the Australian dollar through the period and it averaged $0.655 through the quarter compared with USD 0.668 in the prior quarter.

Shipping freight rates for Panamax vessel journeys from Koolan Island to China ranged from U.S. $11 to $14 a tonne during the period, and they're currently sitting around USD 13 per tonne. Consequently, our high-grade fines realized an average Free on Board price at Koolan Island of USD 105 per dry metric tonne, which was around AUD 160. At current prices, each Koolan shipment is worth in synergy of AUD 11 million to AUD 12 million FOB before we pay royalties.

So as you may have seen, we've also taken advantage of recent pricing strength and exchange rates and hedged a small proportion of expected ore sales over the next 6 months. Equating to 35,000 tonnes per month at a flat 62% Fe CFR price of AUD 175 per tonne between the months of October this year and March next year.

On the currency side, we hold foreign exchange collar contracts protecting the conversion of revenues totaling USD 31 million in the December quarter. It's obviously spread across the months with a cap price protection averaging USD 0.696 and floor prices are below which we did not participate averaging USD 0.625.

And before I move on from Koolan, I just wanted to note that we also released our annual statement of mineral resources and ore reserves as at 30 June, and this confirms the remaining high-grade ore reserves of 12.4 million tonnes at 65.2% Fe in the Main Pit at Koolan Island, and that included 1.2 million tonnes of high-grade ore already mined including stockpiles.

In relation to the Mid-West, our business there, obviously fundamentally changed once the sale of our iron ore mining and port assets went through the Fenix Resources, and that was completed at the end of July, and we received $10 million in cash, 60 million shares in Fenix and 25 million equity options in Fenix. Combining our residual assets with those of Fenix creates now an integrated mining and logistics business that will have increased annual production for the benefit of shareholders of both companies and support ongoing development of mining production and bulk mineral exports in the Mid-West region. So we look forward to working with Fenix on that front.

Elsewhere in the area, we retain our early-stage base metal exploration interests around the former Tallering Peak mine, including the Butcher's Track farming, where we earned a minimum 50% interest in the period, along with our remaining entitlement to the Mid-West rail credit refund. And on that refund, we accrued a further $2 million in the quarter and have now reached the contractual $35 million cap after these last few years. And the final adjustments are expected shortly after reconciliation and indexation calculations will be completed.

In terms of exploration, work in the period involved data reviews at Butcher's Track and the assessment of additional geophysical methods to assess with targeting at the Baileys and Gregory prospects near the Tallering Peak to follow up the early encouraging preliminary drilling results. Significant time is obviously now also being spent on new project generation, field visits, site visits and discussions with third parties in regards to the acquisition opportunities that we see that could be a benefit to Mount Gibson. Now that our cash reserves have been rapidly replenished, and we have focused, as we've stated, on base metals, in particular, copper opportunities in Australia.

At a group level, cash flow for the quarter totaled $124 million, and that comprised the $115 million from Koolan Island, as I mentioned earlier, plus the cash flow component of the Mid-West business sale consideration, plus cash flow itself from the Mid-West business of $1 million and interest and dividend income totaling $4 million, net of corporate admin and exploration costs of $6 million.

After working capital movements, the company's cash and investment balance increased over the quarter by $95 million to $257 million, and this excludes the value of the Fenix shares and options, which had a market value of approximately $15 million at quarter end.

So in relation to our outlook and guidance, with the Koolan operation now performing strongly and in line with our internal targets. But however, recognizing that it is a seasonal operation with significant influences from the Northern Australian wet season, particularly in the December and March quarters. Those future quarters are likely to be moderated by the weather. However, we continue to target sales of between 3.8 million and 4.2 million wet metric tonnes in fiscal '24 at an average site cash operating cost of between AUD 65 and AUD 70 per tonne FOB before ROEs. So there's no change there to our guidance.

Based on Koolan's forecast mining and shipping profile, including the substantial mined or stockpiles built in recent months, the business is well positioned to achieve these annual targets and to generate strong cash flows going forward.

So before I wrap up, finally, I just wanted to acknowledge retiring Director, Russell Barwick, for his valuable input and service over the last 11 years. He's served as a nonexecutive director of the company. In addition, we also welcome Ms. Evian Delfabbro to the Board, who brings a strong engineering and commercial background to work with us.

And finally, I'll remind everyone that Mount Gibson's AGM will be held in Perth on the 15th of November, and will also be accessible via webcast for those unable to attend in person. The details are set out in the notice of meeting lodged on the ASX on 13 October.

So to wrap up, obviously, the business has had a strong start to the new financial year with the Koolan team demonstrating the operations robust cash flow generation potential and underlining its value as Australia's highest grade direct shipping hematite iron ore producer. We remain focused on continuing the build of the company's cash reserves this year, particularly as it will provide a robust platform for the generation of shareholder value and from which to pursue new resources investment opportunities, complementing our recent Mid-West investment.

So with that, I'll hand back to you, Lisa, for any questions that anyone may have.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Peter. We don't have any questions.

[Peter Kerr, executive]

No problem. Thanks, Lisa, and thank you to everyone for listening. Should you have any questions, you know where to reach us, and have a good day. Thank you.