Lynas Rare Earths Ltd

ASX:LYC

Earnings Call Analysis

Lynas Eyes Improved Capacity Amid Market Fluctuations

Lynas Rare Earths experienced a quarter filled with strategic planning and operational advancements. The construction and commissioning for production at Kalgoorlie are now complete, marking a significant milestone as they gear up for the heat-up cycle and imminent production. Although they observed slightly lower production in the first quarter compared to the previous two, this was largely due to crucial maintenance activities. To buffer against unpredictable plant ramp-ups and possible changes in Malaysian license conditions, they've prudently held NdPr inventory. Addressing future demand, Lynas decided to upgrade the LAMP’s downstream operations, aiming to expand capacity to 10,500 tonnes to meet their FY '25 target. While this strategic move necessitates conservative production estimates in the near term, it is expected to position Lynas robustly for future market conditions. Meanwhile, the Mt Weld project remains on schedule, with slight cost adjustments aligning with usual project development stages.

Capital Cash Costs and Guidance

The company has provided guidance on capital cash costs for the year, ensuring that no additional costs will be incurred beyond what has already been stated in previous reports.

Production Projections and Strategic Goals

Management has provided a conservative estimate for production through the first quarter of the next calendar year, anticipating approximately 300 tonnes per month, which will then step-up to about 750 tonnes per month in the final quarter of the financial year. This increase is in line with the strategic target of reaching 12,000 tonnes in 2025.

Guidance Preciseness and Regulatory Stance

The company has acknowledged the difficulty in giving more precise guidance than what has already been offered. The Malaysian government's recognition of the rare earths industry, a significant sector for the company, bodes well for future operations.

Inventory Management and Market Conditions

SEG stocks are being withheld in anticipation of higher prices, suggesting a strategy for unlocking inventory value over the next two quarters if market trends continue positively. However, the exact price point needed to release these stocks into the market wasn't specified.

Operational Strategy Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

With a detailed scenario planning approach that accounts for various operational and regulatory outcomes, the company is ensuring it can sustain supplies to customers through at least the March quarter of the financial year, despite potential low production scenarios.

Capacity Expansion and Production Confidence

The executive team expressed confidence in matching production tonnages with business needs, hinting at the potential to produce up to 9,000 tonnes per annum in the December half of next year, depending on performance and Mt Weld's production settings.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Operator]

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Lynas Quarterly Results Webcast Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.I would now like to hand over to Lynas. Please go ahead.

[Unknown Executive]

Good morning, and welcome to the Lynas Rare Earths investor briefing for the September quarter of 2023. Today's briefing will be presented by Amanda Lacaze, CEO and Managing Director. And joining Amanda are Gaudenz Sturzenegger, CFO; Pol Le Roux, Chief Executive (sic) [Operating] Officer; and Daniel Havas, VP, Strategy and Investor Relations.I'll now hand over to Amanda. Please go ahead, Amanda.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thanks, [Jen], and good morning to everybody. Thank you again for joining us. Well, we have had another busy quarter, which means that we have a jam-packed quarterly report. To start with, I would just like to highlight what for us is really fabulous news, which is that at Kalgoorlie all areas which are required for production, construction and commissioning is now complete, and we have switched to [ Skillman ]. I say that in quotation marks, it's not quite switching it on. It's not like turning on the light when you walk into the room. But this is a major milestone, and I know that everybody on the team is really very excited that we're there. We now have to go through a heat-up cycle and this will be followed with first production. So we're just going to take just a moment to enjoy that, but I think the team is already very, very much engaged in the next steps.Moving on and just looking a little at the quarterly results. We had slightly lower production in the first quarter of FY '24 compared to the final 2 quarters of FY '23. That really reflected the fact that we had to do some planned and preventive maintenance on the cracking and leaching facility in Kuantan, maintenance which we had delayed in the previous quarter. The results of just over 1,500 tonnes is still very good when we calculate it back to a daily production basis, taking out the lower equipment availability for the days that we were unable to operate the kilns because we were conducting maintenance.As I've indicated in the quarterly report, for the first time, actually, in the time that I've been in Lynas we did not sell every gram we produced, not because we didn't have enough demand. But as we've explained in the report, we are still managing for potentially different scenarios over the next 6 months, which may include a variation in our license conditions in Malaysia and certainly recognizing that any ramp-up of a plant of the size and complexity of Kalgoorlie is inherently unpredictable. So we have held some NdPr inventory within our own warehouses, and we also have NdPr inventory sitting with our distributor to ensure that we will be able to provide supply continuity for our key customers. In addition, we have actually held some SEG inventory as well, which we're holding for purely commercial reasons as we see the price continuing to strengthen. It's been sensible to hold some of that back.The other very big news, which we've included in this quarterly report is the fact that we have now decided that we will go ahead with our upgrade to LAMP's downstream operations. And as we've explained in the report, we need this additional capacity until an extraction and product finishing under either of the 2 key scenarios that we're considering. If there is a revision to our license conditions in Malaysia, then certainly, we want the downstream plant in Malaysia to be able to process both material, which is processed in the cracking and leaching facility in Malaysia and also the mixed rare earth carbonate that Malaysia will receive from the Kalgoorlie facility. If not, as we indicated last quarter, we now are able to produce up to 9,000 tonnes a year once we reach nameplate capacity at Kalgoorlie and so therefore, we need to increase our downstream in Malaysia. So this first stage where we'll be making changes to 2 of our NdPr separation trains in solvent extraction will take us to the 10,500 tonnes, which has always been our FY '25, our Lynas '25 target. The process that we'll be doing there is completely innovative and is something of which we're very proud because it's an in-house development.As we look at this, we are conservative as to production in the third quarter because we expect the solvent extraction circuits will have to equilibrate, come back into balance and before we're able to achieve the significant uplift in production for which they'll be designed. In addition, we will be putting some extra equipment into product finishing once again, which will enhance efficiency, continuous precipitation circuit and some new furnaces in that area. That will take a little longer, but we will be able to take advantage even with our current PF configuration once we had the SX circuits stable and producing.So the decision to make these changes in the downstream area, as said, they are needed on any scenario. We're pretty excited to be doing them. But they will affect this quarter and next. And I think we've spoken for some time and foreshadowed the fact that this really -- this financial year is an adjustment year to ensure that we are in the strongest possible position as the market returns to what we hope will be better settings in the near future.The Mt Weld project continues on track. We're very close to the end of stage 1. This is a logical time for us to review stage 2 scoping costs, ensure that we have actually engineered this to give us the best possible efficiencies as we move forward. Our stage 2 estimate is slightly up on sort of the original estimate, but well within the sorts of variations you would expect at this stage of the project. Of course, during the quarter, and we've spoken to you previously about this when we released the annual results, we finalized the heavy rare contract with the U.S. Department of Defense. We're pretty excited about it. It's an expenditure-based contract under which all of our property allocable construction costs will be reimbursed. The team is champing a bit to move forward on this. We've had our U.S.-based engineering partners in Kuantan for an extended period of time working with our in-house engineers to ensure that we're able to move forward with that project on the most efficient basis possible. And of course, in Malaysia, we continue to engage with the Malaysian government and the regulators on the conditions associated with our license and indeed also continue to pursue all of our rights under Malaysian law. And we think that this is important as a parallel path to the much-preferred pathway of actually reaching a better outcome with the regulators and the government.So as I said, a jam-packed quarter and a jam-packed quarterly report, very exciting times for us. Everybody in the business has been sort of holding their breath as we wait for Kalgoorlie to come on and a smooth ramp-up is now our target -- a smooth and rapid ramp-up is now our target. And also in Malaysia, it's very exciting to see us be able to do some of the upgrades we're talking about there.So with that, I know there's always loads and loads and loads of questions. So I'll leave us with 50 minutes through to the end of the call so that I can take as many questions as possible.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Paul Young from Goldman Sachs.

[Paul Young, analyst]

A fair bit going on in this quarterly, as you highlighted. I guess the first question I have is around Kalgoorlie and the timing on the commissioning. I guess we are -- if you step back, we are probably 4 or 5 months late now in this project to hitting the kiln and as you point out, Amanda, we're hoping for a smooth and rapid ramp-up. But unfortunately, those things rarely happen. So if I look at the ramp-up on potentially the ramp-up of Kal and trying to produce enough rare earth carbonate to feed LAMP if it does restart post the upgrade in the June quarter next year, that doesn't seem to be a lot of time to -- for the ramp-up, that's only effectively 4 months. So I guess the question then is what gives the team -- this seems again like a stretched target. And maybe one point is that really what we're after is some realistic and achievable guidance on the ramp-up and to 9,000 tonnes and to 12,000 tonnes. So I'm just still struggling to see how we achieve the ramp-up in time to restart an expanded LAMP to achieve 750 tonnes per month.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thanks, Paul. So as always, a very critical approach. So as you would have noted, we have aligned these 2 ramp-up phases. So this means that we are actually giving ourselves, yes, potentially a quarter of pain, but it's 1 quarter. It's not sort of stringing it out over a period of time. So we will be limited even downstream in Malaysia on the amount that we're able to produce. And we see that as -- that's one of the reasons why we've timed this in the way that we have because if we have even a modest ramp-up trajectory, then we think that these will be more closely aligned than they might otherwise be. On the other hand, we're -- very, very positively, we'll have cracking and leaching in Malaysia operating, in which case this will be moved.

[Paul Young, analyst]

Okay. And then on LAMP, good to see the extra detail on the expansion of LAMP to the 10,500 tonnes per annum. Can you just step through, just on that, is it really just expansion of the -- you said the product finishing, but you're also expanding the solvent extraction? And I think you've previously said it's quite capital light. Can you maybe just provide another estimate, if you can, of what the CapEx -- what CapEx is involved there?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

So the capital is included in our financial report for the year-end. We gave guidance on capital cash costs this year. It is included within there. So there's no additional cost over and above what we've already provided.

[Paul Young, analyst]

Okay. That's great. And then last one, Amanda, just on the U.S. refinery. Still targeting first production in FY '26. Good to hear that the engineering team, the U.S. team has been in Malaysia to -- [ excited ] to still work through the feed and everything else. But when do you need to start construction do you believe to be able to achieve that FY '26 target?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Paul, can Daniel call you back with that date? We are expecting it will be within this financial year.

[Paul Young, analyst]

Okay. So within FY '24, so sort of 2-year construction time frame.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Yes.

[Paul Young, analyst]

Okay. All right. I'm still working through a bit of detail here. I might join the queue, and I'll pass it on.

[Operator]

Next we have Chen Jiang from Bank of America.

[Chen Jiang, analyst]

Two questions from me, please. In the release, you mentioned planned shutdown from Malaysia in December quarter as well as March quarter NdPr separation upgrade. Would you please provide some color on your rare earth oxide production and NdPr? Is that fair to assume your inventory will draw down in the upcoming 2 quarters despite minimum production from the shutdown and the separation upgrade so we won't see a big decline in sales despite minimum production? I have another one after this.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thanks, Chen. Yes. We will see some smoothing because, as I said, we've built some of that inventory. And the primary reason for that is not smoothing of the revenue, but it is, in fact, to ensure that we maintain reliable supply to our key customers. We have provided sort of an outline. We will have the LAMP shutdown from mid-November. So I think it's reasonably easy for most of you in your models to be able to back fold for that. And we've provided a conservative estimate of somewhere around about 300 tonnes a month for the first quarter of next calendar year, followed up by we would expect our first step-up in production to occur in the final quarter of this financial year when we'll be able to go up to about 750 tonnes a month, and then finally, it will move up in the following financial year to our target rates in Malaysia.

[Chen Jiang, analyst]

Right. Right. Second question, just a follow-up, please. Are we -- well, by looking at Kalgoorlie designed capacity, 9,000 tonne per annum equivalent NdPr and then the separation facility is [ 10.5% ]. I'm just wondering, are we still on track to achieve the 12,000 tonne of NdPr equivalent in your Lynas 2025 plan? We are 2 years -- well, we are less than 18 months away, I guess.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Yes. So we will -- each of the phases, and I understand that this can be a little bit tricky, but because we've got a number of production phases, we're not a simple miner with just one beneficiation plan, we have a number of different production phases. And so our investment decisions are to do the most efficient upgrade in each of those at any particular time. So Mt Weld, we are upgrading to 12,000 tonnes per annum because that is the logical next step from where we are today.When we look at then our cracking and leaching capacity, Kalgoorlie will take us to 9,000 tonnes. If we have the variation to our license in Malaysia, in fact, we will have excess capacity well and truly over the 12,000 tonnes in that cracking and leaching stage, the next logical step with solvent extraction is to go to the 10,500 tonnes. And then once we've done that, stabilized, then we can consider taking the LAMP facility up the next step as well. So yes, we have slightly different uplifts in capacity as we go through, but we believe we will be able to get all of these aligned to meet our strategic goal of the 12,000 tonnes in '25.

[Chen Jiang, analyst]

Right. Maybe last question, please. In the release you mentioned during the shutdown, the Malaysia cracking and leaching staff will be deployed to Australia to assist with the start-up process in Kalgoorlie. I'm just wondering what does that mean. Like do you allocate the whole team to Australia to assist Kalgoorlie during the shutdown?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Not the full team, but team members of the team. We already have about 2 dozen of our Malaysian people are actually working and some have been working for quite an extended period of time in Kalgoorlie. And we are really fortunate anyone else who was proposing to start up a rare earth processing plant will not have access to the sort of skills that we have. So when we think about how do we de-risk the ramp-up phase, bringing in people who have -- and because we retain our people, we've actually got on-site in Kalgoorlie, the same team that commenced the heat-up cycle for the kilns in Malaysia a decade ago. So we had this enormous amount of own IP in this area.So we've got those who have already been working with us. As I said, some folks -- some have been actually in Australia for over a year, others for several months. When we shut down, we will have a number of our operational leaders from the cracking and leaching facility in Malaysia as well as additional technicians who will come to Australia and who will assist in both the ramp-up, but also ensuring that our new workforce in Kalgoorlie is trained.Over the last 6 months, all those that we have recruited into Kalgoorlie have also been to Malaysia, so they can actually see and experience and learn from the fact that we already have a facility operating.

[Chen Jiang, analyst]

Right. That's clear. Good to see you have skilled staff from Malaysia to Kalgoorlie help with the ramp-up.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Next we have Daniel Morgan from Barrenjoey.

[Daniel Morgan, analyst]

First question is, you've given some quantified guidance on best-case scenarios for the March and June quarters next year. Should I read this as assuming a positive Malaysian policy change scenario? Under an adverse scenario, i.e. you don't get a positive outcome and you are relying just on Kalgoorlie, I imagine you would expect production to be below these levels. Is that fair?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

I think that the famous statement about there are things that we know that we know, there are things that we know that we don't know and then there are other things that we don't know that we don't know does really apply when you're talking about sort of ramping up a complex plant. So what we do know is that it will take time to ramp up the plant. I think that you can see from this that we're sort of -- were modest and so what we're talking about is the potential production in the first quarter of next year.We would love to overshoot that if we do indeed have sort of the variations in the license conditions in Malaysia. But even with the very, very sort of best knowledge that we've got modeling the various different sort of McNulty curves and experience based on Malaysia, it is difficult to give you any more precise guidance than what we've already provided in the report.

[Daniel Morgan, analyst]

Okay. Understand. Separate question. Malaysia, there was a lot of news in Malaysia in the past couple of months about a new rare earth strategy. How do you read this as a company? Is this an opportunity for you? And is this a softening of the government stance potentially towards cracking and leaching in country?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

I think that we all are very pleased that the Malaysian government has recognized the rare earths industry as an engine for growth in the Malaysian economy. I think that there is absolutely a recognition that Malaysia is a step ahead of just about anywhere else because Lynas operates in Malaysia. And Malaysia has articulated -- the Malaysian government has articulated a desire to both develop their upstream and their downstream -- upstream, actually, these are upstream, midstream and downstream capability in country. We see that all as very positive.

[Daniel Morgan, analyst]

And on a separate parallel process, which is the court process, the high court process, if you are successful in getting a stay, is there any expectation on how long a process can take? I mean, I'm not familiar with the court process in Malaysia. Can it happen in days and weeks, which I imagine would be a bad outcome for an adverse ruling? But if it's a protracted process and you have a stay, then we'll -- you could have a less disruptive time in the first half of 2024 is what I'm thinking.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Yes. That's why I would never supposed to be able to predict what governments might do or on what timeline they might do it. I would be even more averse to predicting what courts might do and the timeline on which they would do it. So yes, you are right. This stay, we think, is an important strategy, and we think that we have a strong argument for why this should be allowed to occur as the matters are considered in front of the court.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Austin Yun from Macquarie.

[Austin Yun, analyst]

Just 2 questions from me, please. The first one is to extend a question from Daniel. Just would like to understand, given the comment from the Malaysian government, what would be the kind of a potential part from now on? Would you expect the government to start to provide additional funding or tax breaks to encourage the development of the industry there? Or would you expect to see a tighter control from the government because it really [ is ] getting the interest in this part of the operation. So just wondering what you're hearing on the ground? I'll come back...

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

I think based upon -- yes, thanks, Austin. I think based upon the public commentary right now that we would expect tighter control. You would have noted that the government and the regulators understand the value of the ionic clay deposits in particular in Malaysia, and that reflects sort of a geological formation, which is common across Southeast Asia. And so one of the announcements from the government was that they intended to ban export of raw materials, so in its raw mined form. And we would see that as being very positive because we actually know how to separate mixed rare earth carbonate, whether it comes from ionic clay or whether it comes from other -- some other sources. So we would see that as being very positive.And I think that this government's intention is to ensure that this is a key focus area for economic growth. Malaysia still has an automotive industry and has aspirations to have a larger and more vigorous automotive industry. Malaysia seeks to be a leader in terms of sort of green energy and the energy transition. And there is a very clear understanding amongst policymakers of the importance of rare earths materials as part of driving those industries.So I think there will probably be more rather than less control. And I think it will be done for the purposes of facilitating industry development in Malaysia.

[Austin Yun, analyst]

Great. Second one is on the sales volumes for the rest of the year. Do you have any minimum commitment to your customers in terms of NdPr and other risk products for the December and March quarter?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Our commitment to our customers is that we don't disrupt their production by not being able to provide continuity of supply. And so we have a number of strategic customers, many of whom we have been supplying now for 8 or 9 years. We know what the forecast is, and we're managing our inventory to be able to meet that forecast.

[Austin Yun, analyst]

Yes. Okay. Sorry, if I can just squeeze one last question. Just on your production capacity expansion to [ 12,500 tonnes ] NdPr, how should we think about the CapEx for this additional 2,000 tonnes of capacity?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

So it's 10,500 is the step that we're going to in Malaysia. And the costs associated with, we call it the LAMP industrial plan, are already included in the CapEx indication that we've provided with the annual report.

[Austin Yun, analyst]

Yes. I understood that. Just wondering, for the next step after the [ 10,500 ], you still have a 2,000 tonne gap, right? I'm trying to understand the CapEx intensity for the last leg of the expansion, if you have any color you can provide?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

We expect it will still be relatively low capital intensity because as I said, what we've done is that we've -- in this first step we're making certain changes to 2 of our NdPr separation trains. We have 4. When we go to the next step, it will be changing the other 2 of our separation trains.

[Operator]

Next we have Al Harvey from J.P. Morgan.

[Alistair Harvey, analyst]

Just a very simple one to start. Just wanted to double check the ramp-up next year, the tonnes per month. Is that quoted in total rare earth oxide or specifically NdPr oxide?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

NdPr.

[Alistair Harvey, analyst]

Great. And then secondly, just, I guess, you've indicated that there's been some continued drilling out of Mt Weld. Just wanting to understand when we might get the resource update and if it will include the rare earths oxide split that we haven't had for a while.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

You'll get it as soon as we have finished all of the test work. We're all sitting on the edge of our chairs waiting to be able to bring that forward. But we've done a lot of drilling as you can see from the report. And we've done drilling in -- both within the current life of mine where we've done a lot of additional drilling to understand distribution of elements, not just grade, but also to understand grade. And then, of course, we had the carbonatite drilling program as well. So there is a lot of work being done on this. Our team of geos are absolutely flat out. But I can't give you a specific time on that, but we're working on it.

[Alistair Harvey, analyst]

Great. And maybe just one last one. You mentioned the Malaysian ionic clays. Not that they don't require cracking and leaching. Has there been any discussions on utilizing your solvent extraction and product finishing for local Malaysian or maybe use that as a source of feed there at LAMP?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Sure.

[Alistair Harvey, analyst]

Sure, there has been discussions or sure...

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

If you've got a resource and you want to value add to it, you get someone who knows how to do it. But -- I mean, there's a whole complex of matters associated with how we may or may not see the land facility, including whether we are able to operate in the way that it was designed and on the basis on which we made the investment. So yes, we have discussions about these various matters. We have no further update to provide on the license at this time. But I can assure you, you will all be the first to know once we know that.

[Alistair Harvey, analyst]

Yes, sure. So I guess I'm just thinking then if there's potential that, that could be used as feed, does that potentially give the Malaysian government a little bit of a reason to put off -- overturning the cracking and leaching ban if you could process them local material with your downstream?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Well, it just could do. Couldn't that, Al? Yes. So clearly, as I go back, I'd say, we see it as very positive that the Malaysian government sees the opportunity for development of rare earths industry in Malaysia, both using their upstream capability and further developing downstream capability. We, of course, have been very active in promoting the value of having the only proven operating rare earths separation plant in Malaysia. We have been very active in providing that to the Malaysian government and the benefits that could accrue to the Malaysian economy. And we continue to operate, we continue to meet all of the regulatory conditions, and we continue to be of the view that the decision should be made, which are good for the Malaysian economy and which are also good for Malaysian industry operations, recognizing that we are compliant -- we are compliant with all regulation and we run a safe operation. So yes, we have advocated very strongly for the benefit of having the Lynas plant operating in the way that it was designed to operate.

[Alistair Harvey, analyst]

Sure. Really appreciate it.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thanks, Al.

[Operator]

Next we have Dim Ariyasinghe from UBS.

[Dim Ariyasinghe, analyst]

Just one quick question from me. On the inventory, obviously, most of it is being managed to accommodate potential disruption in the next couple of quarters. But you do make note that you're also withholding some of the SEG stocks in anticipation of higher prices. Can you maybe talk about what sort of quantum in price you'd need to see before you kind of deliver back into that market?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Yes, look, I think that we're seeing a significant strengthening in that market sort of already and we will -- I guess we don't have like a singular number where we'll say we'll do something about it because the way that we sell our SEG is such that we need to have confidence in both the demand and the price. But I would suppose that if market trends continue the way that they are now, then we will start to unwind some of that inventory over the next 2 quarters.

[Dim Ariyasinghe, analyst]

Yes. Awesome. Cool. And then one other, just had a lot of the questions on modeling of announcement. This is just for -- excuse me, if this is a bit amateur. But in terms of disclosure going forward now, we're going to be probably a bit quiet until next year. No [ asserting ], but there will be a lot happening with Kalgoorlie and with Malaysia. Like so will we be getting updates when we get the first [ emric ] from Kalgoorlie? Or is it a case of no news is good news potentially? Apologies. Yes.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Don't apologize. We're delighted that people want to know sort of the detail of the way things are moving forward. I think that as we look at this, we know that we're only a month out from our AGM. We usually like to provide a fulsome sort of update on what's going on at that time. So it's not quite as long until sort of a next sort of normalized update would occur. But we will certainly disclose anything which is material as and when it occurs. So -- but don't worry that we won't talk to you until sort of late in January, I mean, at a minimum, the AGM becomes sort of a next point at which we would certainly provide an update.

[Dim Ariyasinghe, analyst]

Yeah. Cool.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Regan Burrows from Bell Potter.

[Regan Burrows, analyst]

Just a couple of questions from me. Firstly, just the impact of the shutdowns in November on the soil extraction and product fishing plant in Malaysia. Just sort of interested in the control of that. Is it sort of, I guess, similar production levels to this quarter? Or are we sort of guiding to potentially consider to be lower?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

So basically, we'll shut down from mid-November, so we shut down for half the quarter.

[Regan Burrows, analyst]

Okay. So that will be a complete shut down through the end of the quarter?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Yes.

[Regan Burrows, analyst]

Okay. Cool. And then I guess just as a follow-up on that. You've obviously been stockpiling material for a couple of quarters now. Just interested, I guess, in terms of a, I guess, a runway or how many quarters you can sort of sustain, say, current sales levels going forward because we don't really have a breakdown of what's NdPr, what's SEG?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

No. And it may not surprise you now, I'm not going to give you that on a time-by-time basis today either.

[Regan Burrows, analyst]

No, [Audio Gap].

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

So suffice to say that, as I said, we've been -- as we've indicated across now a number of months we've had detailed scenario planning on -- and those scenarios have ranged from a very slow ramp-up at Kalgoorlie through to what we would hope would be more of the trajectory and then have included both that we get a variation to our license it continues to operate in Malaysia or we don't get a variation to our license in Malaysia. And so we are -- we're managing to that to ensure that if we do have a very low production quarter in the March quarter of this financial year that we will be able to sustain supply to our customers.

[Regan Burrows, analyst]

Okay. So it will take you through so March sort of time frame. And just, I guess, a final one sort of confirming, I guess, Dan's comments earlier just on the sort of second half ramp-up scenario that you've provided in those 300 tonnes per month stepping up to 750 tonnes in sort of next financial year. Just confirming that that assumes no overturn in the operating license?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Yeah. Those are our solvent extraction -- that's actually the solvent extraction capacity that we're indicating there and indeed remain it may be better than that. It depends on how long it takes for the changes in solvent extraction to just stabilize. But it's lower production for the March quarter, but then higher in the June quarter. So we will see some increase towards the back part of this financial year.

[Regan Burrows, analyst]

All right. Okay. Okay.

[Operator]

Next we have Paul Young from Goldman Sachs.

[Paul Young, analyst]

It's Paul Young again. Just to clarify, Amanda, the June quarter of next year, the 750 tonnes per month target, which equates to 9,000 tonnes per annum of NdPr. So that's the nameplate of Kalgoorlie. So if it ramps up by then and you can, in theory, feed 9,000 tonnes to LAMP but the increment from Mt Weld can do about 7,000 tonnes at the moment. It's obviously the throughput there and production is all based on the head grade, and you've obviously got the environmental approvals for a set amount of ore throughput, right? So you can flex the head grade and therefore the concentrate production. But I don't think Mt Weld can do more than about 7 increments if I'm not wrong. So if you're going to achieve the 750 tonnes per month or 9,000 tonnes of NdPr annualized for the June quarter, is that reliant on maybe what you might have alluded to earlier to a question around potentially feeding in some of those ionic clays in Malaysia into the plant?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

No. Mt Weld actually has proven itself, particularly over the last year to be able to do a bit better than the 7,000 tonnes a year because as we indicated in the full year report, we've been able to not only feed Malaysia at say 7,000 tonne equivalent, but also build inventory for feedstock for Kalgoorlie. So yes, I mean, it's always the case of sort of managing each stage to optimize -- but we're very pleased with Mt Weld performance at this time, and we think that we've got some headroom to be able to pick up.Second thing is that with the expansion project, the current bottleneck at Mount Weld is in fact in our dewatering circuit. So the first thing that we will be bringing online with the expansion is the new dewatering circuit, which is substantially upsized from what we have currently. So we have previously indicated that Mt Weld that's not a -- it's 7,000 tonnes today and it's 12,000 tonnes tomorrow, but we will have a couple of steps in there as we bring the equipment online. And of course, this is the benefit of being on a brownfield site. So releasing the constraint in the dewatering circuit will give us a step up. So we're fairly confident about our ability to match these tonnages through the process.

[Paul Young, analyst]

Yes. Okay. That's great, Amanda. So that means -- just to confirm, that means that potentially, you could run the December half of next year, depending on the production settings at Mt Weld and performance, but you could potentially produce 9,000 tonnes per annum -- a run rate of 9,000 tonnes per annum in the December half of next year?

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Potentially.

[Paul Young, analyst]

Okay, very interesting.

[Operator]

I see no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back to Amanda for closing remarks. Thank you, Amanda.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thanks very much. And look, once again, thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. I wish I could reflect and say to you we've had a really busy quarter, and now we're just [ closing into ] Christmas, but actually, we're looking at another really busy quarter ahead. And certainly, we'll keep you informed as we continue to develop the business.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

[Amanda Lacaze, executive]

Thank you.