Goodman Group
ASX:GMG
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one GMG stock under the Base Case scenario is 30.33 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 37.25 AUD, Goodman Group is Overvalued by 19%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Goodman Group
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Fundamental Analysis
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Goodman Group is a prominent global industrial property group that specializes in the development and management of logistics and warehouse facilities. Founded in 1989 and headquartered in Australia, Goodman has masterfully positioned itself to capitalize on the burgeoning e-commerce sector and the increasing demand for modern supply chain solutions. The company boasts a diverse portfolio of strategically located properties in major markets across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, making it a key player in the logistics real estate sector. With a strong focus on sustainability and innovation, Goodman aims to create long-term value for its investors by delivering high-quality assets...
Goodman Group is a prominent global industrial property group that specializes in the development and management of logistics and warehouse facilities. Founded in 1989 and headquartered in Australia, Goodman has masterfully positioned itself to capitalize on the burgeoning e-commerce sector and the increasing demand for modern supply chain solutions. The company boasts a diverse portfolio of strategically located properties in major markets across the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, making it a key player in the logistics real estate sector. With a strong focus on sustainability and innovation, Goodman aims to create long-term value for its investors by delivering high-quality assets that not only meet current market demands but are also adaptable for future needs.
Investors will find Goodman Group's business model compelling as it combines solid income generation from rent with significant growth potential through development projects and strategic acquisitions. The company's experienced management team and disciplined approach to capital allocation ensure a steady pipeline of new opportunities while maintaining strong relationships with a diverse range of tenants, from multinational corporations to local businesses. As the world shifts towards more sustainable logistics practices, Goodman is well-positioned to leverage its expertise and reputation to thrive in this dynamic environment. Overall, investing in Goodman Group presents a unique opportunity to participate in the growth of the logistics real estate market, backed by a robust framework of operational excellence and a commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
Goodman Group is a global industrial property group that specializes in the ownership, development, and management of logistics and warehousing properties. Its core business segments can typically be categorized as follows:
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Development: This segment focuses on the design and construction of logistics and industrial properties. Goodman Group develops warehouses and distribution centers tailored to meet the specific needs of its clients, often incorporating features that enhance efficiency and sustainability.
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Investment Management: Goodman Group manages a range of funds and investment vehicles that invest in industrial properties. This segment includes partnerships with institutional investors, providing them access to high-quality logistics assets. It plays a crucial role in capital management and investor relations.
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Property Management: This segment involves the ongoing management of the properties that Goodman owns and operates. It encompasses leasing, facility management, and tenant services, ensuring that properties are maintained effectively and that tenants receive the necessary support.
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Fund Management: Goodman's fund management operations focus on managing a diverse portfolio of logistics and industrial properties on behalf of equity partners. This includes strategic planning, asset management, and performance optimization of the investments.
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Sustainability and Innovation: While not a standalone segment, Goodman places a significant emphasis on sustainability and innovative solutions in its operations across all segments. This includes implementing energy-efficient designs, sustainable building practices, and investing in technologies that reduce the environmental impact of its properties.
These core segments allow Goodman Group to leverage its expertise in industrial property, maintain strong tenant relationships, and deliver value to its stakeholders, ultimately supporting its growth and investment strategies in the logistics sector.
Goodman Group, a global leader in logistics property and investment, has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals:
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Strategically Located Assets: Goodman Group focuses on key logistics hubs, ensuring that its properties are situated in highly sought-after locations that enhance supply chain efficiency. Proximity to major transport networks, urban centers, and ports offers tenants significant logistical benefits.
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Strong Customer Relationships: The company emphasizes building long-term relationships with clients, often providing tailored solutions that meet specific operational needs. This customer-centric approach fosters loyalty and helps in retaining tenants.
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Robust Development Capabilities: Goodman has a strong in-house development team that allows for efficient project management and execution. Their expertise in design and construction enables them to optimize property performance and respond quickly to market demands.
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Sustainable Practices: Goodman Group places a significant emphasis on sustainability, incorporating green building practices and technologies into its properties. This not only aligns with increasing regulatory demands but also attracts environmentally-conscious tenants and investors.
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Global Presence with Local Expertise: While Goodman operates globally, it also maintains a deep understanding of local markets. This dual approach allows the company to identify and capitalize on market opportunities effectively, tailoring solutions to local needs.
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Diversified Portfolio: The company has a diversified property portfolio that includes warehouses, distribution centers, and urban logistics facilities. This diversification minimizes risks associated with market fluctuations in specific sectors.
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Strong Financial Position: Goodman Group benefits from a solid balance sheet and access to capital, enabling it to invest in high-quality developments and acquisitions. This financial strength allows for competitive financing options and positions the company favorably during economic fluctuations.
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Innovative Use of Technology: The company leverages technology to enhance operational efficiency in property management and development processes. This includes the use of data analytics for site selection and performance monitoring, providing a technological edge.
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Expertise in E-commerce Logistics: With the growth of e-commerce, Goodman has focused on developing properties that cater specifically to this segment. Their understanding of e-commerce logistics needs gives them an advantage over competitors who may not focus as intently on this rapidly growing market.
These competitive advantages contribute to Goodman Group's strong market position and ability to adapt and thrive in the dynamic logistics and real estate environments.
Goodman Group, as a global integrated property group focused on owning, developing, and managing logistics and industrial properties, faces several risks and challenges in the near future:
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Economic Downturn: A potential recession could lead to decreased demand for logistics and industrial space. Economic cycles significantly impact tenant demand and rental rates.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing global supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, pandemics, or natural disasters, could affect the efficiency of logistics operations and tenant fulfillment capabilities.
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Interest Rate Fluctuations: Rising interest rates can lead to higher borrowing costs, which may affect profitability and investment capability. It also impacts valuations of existing properties, as capitalization rates may rise.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in zoning laws, environmental regulations, and building codes can introduce compliance challenges and increase development costs. Increased scrutiny on sustainability practices could also necessitate more significant investments.
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Technological Disruption: The rapid advancement of technology (e.g., automation, e-commerce growth) could disrupt traditional business models. Goodman may need to invest in smart buildings and advanced technologies to keep up with customer demands.
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Environmental Risks: Climate change and environmental concerns could lead Goodman to reassess its property portfolios to include more sustainable and eco-friendly developments. This transition may be costly and complex.
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Market Saturation: In some regions, the logistics sector might experience oversupply, leading to increased competition and potential downturns in rental prices.
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Global Trade Dynamics: Changes in trade policies, tariffs, and international relations can directly affect the demand for industrial space, especially in regions heavily reliant on import/export activities.
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Tenant Credit Risk: Economic pressures on tenants, especially in retail or smaller business sectors, could lead to defaults, impacting rental income and occupancy rates.
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Focus on E-commerce: While e-commerce growth presents opportunities, it also poses risks if Goodman does not adapt its properties to meet changing customer needs (such as last-mile delivery solutions).
Mitigating these risks involves strategic planning, diversification of property portfolios, maintaining strong relationships with tenants, and staying informed about market trends and regulatory changes. By focusing on sustainable practices and technological advancements, Goodman Group can position itself favorably in a changing market landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Goodman Group
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Goodman Group
Current Assets | 2.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.8B |
Receivables | 234.2m |
Other Current Assets | 469.4m |
Non-Current Assets | 21.3B |
Long-Term Investments | 17.9B |
PP&E | 65.2m |
Intangibles | 829.5m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 2.6B |
Current Liabilities | 1.4B |
Accounts Payable | 837.2m |
Other Current Liabilities | 572.8m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.9B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.7B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Goodman Group
Revenue
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2B
AUD
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Cost of Revenue
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-556.1m
AUD
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Gross Profit
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1.4B
AUD
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Operating Expenses
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-884.1m
AUD
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Operating Income
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543.2m
AUD
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Other Expenses
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-642.1m
AUD
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Net Income
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-98.9m
AUD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Goodman Group
AUD | |
Free Cash Flow | AUD |
GMG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Goodman Group's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Goodman Group's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
GMG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Goodman Group's solvency score is 61/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Goodman Group's solvency score is 61/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
GMG Price Targets Summary
Goodman Group
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GMG is 38.05 AUD with a low forecast of 20.03 AUD and a high forecast of 44.52 AUD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for GMG is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
GMG Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Goodman Group engages in the development, owning, and management of industrial property and business space. The company is headquartered in Sydney, New South Wales. The company went IPO on 2005-02-02. The firm is focused on owning, developing and managing industrial property and business space in markets across the world. The principal activities of the Company are investment in directly and indirectly held industrial property, property services and property development. Its operating segments include Australia and New Zealand, Asia, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom and the Americas. The firm's staple entities include Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited. The firm has also invested in property funds, which include Goodman Australia Industrial Partnership (GAIP), Goodman Australia Partnership (GAP), Goodman Property Trust (GMT), Goodman Hong Kong Logistics Partnership (GHKLP), Goodman Japan Core Partnership (GJCP) and Goodman European Partnership (GEP).
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one GMG stock under the Base Case scenario is 30.33 AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 37.25 AUD, Goodman Group is Overvalued by 19%.