Coles Group Ltd
ASX:COL
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one COL stock under the Base Case scenario is 21.82 AUD. Compared to the current market price of 18.16 AUD, Coles Group Ltd is Undervalued by 17%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Coles Group Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Coles Group Ltd. is one of Australia’s leading retailers, known primarily for its extensive network of supermarkets, convenience stores, and liquor outlets. Established in 1914, Coles has grown from a small grocery store into a household name, operating over 800 supermarkets and more than 700 liquor stores nationwide. The company's mission is to provide quality products at competitive prices while ensuring excellent customer service. As part of its strategy to foster customer loyalty and enhance its market position, Coles has embraced digital transformation, with innovative online shopping solutions and a rewards program that attracts millions of loyal shoppers. This focus on customer experi...
Coles Group Ltd. is one of Australia’s leading retailers, known primarily for its extensive network of supermarkets, convenience stores, and liquor outlets. Established in 1914, Coles has grown from a small grocery store into a household name, operating over 800 supermarkets and more than 700 liquor stores nationwide. The company's mission is to provide quality products at competitive prices while ensuring excellent customer service. As part of its strategy to foster customer loyalty and enhance its market position, Coles has embraced digital transformation, with innovative online shopping solutions and a rewards program that attracts millions of loyal shoppers. This focus on customer experience, alongside a commitment to sustainability and community engagement, is crucial for investors looking for a company with long-term growth potential.
In recent years, Coles has strategically positioned itself to navigate the competitive landscape of the grocery sector, particularly as consumer habits shift towards e-commerce and convenience shopping. The company has reported steady financial performance, marked by consistent revenue growth and strong market share in the Australian grocery sector. Coles places a significant emphasis on cost efficiencies and supply chain optimization, seeking to improve profitability while managing risks associated with market fluctuations and consumer trends. Investing in Coles Group Ltd. may offer an opportunity to tap into a robust business model with a focus on innovation, reliability, and sustainability, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability in the evolving retail landscape.
Coles Group Ltd. is a leading Australian retailer with a diverse range of business segments. The core business segments of Coles Group can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Supermarkets:
- This is the largest segment of Coles, comprising a network of supermarkets that offer a wide variety of groceries, fresh produce, bakery items, meat, household goods, and other essential products. The Coles supermarkets are positioned to cater to everyday consumer needs across urban and rural Australia.
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Coles Express:
- This segment includes fuel and convenience store offerings. Coles Express operates a chain of service stations, which often include convenience stores that sell snacks, beverages, and groceries. Many of these sites are partnered with major fuel brands, enhancing customer convenience.
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Liquor:
- Under this segment, Coles operates brands such as First Choice Liquor, Vintage Cellars, and Liquorland. The liquor segment focuses on the sale of a variety of alcoholic beverages, including wines, spirits, and beers, catering to both retail and wholesale customers.
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Coles Online:
- This segment encompasses Coles’ e-commerce operations, allowing customers to shop for groceries online. Coles Online integrates home delivery and click-and-collect services, making it convenient for customers to purchase their requirements from the comfort of their homes.
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Coles Financial Services:
- Coles also offers a range of financial services, including credit cards, insurance, and loan products tailored to their customer base. This segment aims to enhance customer loyalty through various financial offerings integrated with Coles’ retail services.
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Private Label Products:
- Coles has a significant focus on private label products across all its segments. These products are often positioned at competitive price points and help enhance brand loyalty among customers while improving margins for the company.
By diversifying its offerings across these segments, Coles Group aims to mitigate risks and enhance customer satisfaction, ensuring long-term growth and stability in the competitive retail market.
Coles Group Ltd, a major Australian supermarket chain, possesses several unique competitive advantages that help it stand out in the retail market:
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Strong Brand Recognition and Loyalty: Coles has established a trusted and recognizable brand in Australia, which fosters customer loyalty. Its long-standing presence in the market means that it benefits from brand equity that new entrants may struggle to achieve.
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Extensive Store Network: With a widespread network of supermarkets and convenience stores, Coles enjoys significant geographical reach. This allows for better penetration in both urban and rural markets, and provides convenience for consumers.
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In-House Private Label Products: Coles has developed a range of private label products that create a unique value proposition for customers. This not only enhances margins compared to selling third-party brands but also encourages brand loyalty through exclusive offerings.
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Supply Chain Efficiency: The company has invested heavily in optimizing its supply chain, leveraging technology and logistics to improve efficiency. This can lead to cost savings, faster stock replenishment, and ultimately, better pricing for consumers.
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Diverse Product Range: Coles offers a diverse range of products, including groceries, fresh produce, bakery items, and meat. This breadth allows them to cater to a wide customer base and adapt to changing consumer preferences.
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Sustainability Initiatives: Coles has undertaken various sustainability initiatives, like reducing waste and promoting eco-friendly packaging. This resonates with environmentally conscious consumers and enhances the brand image.
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Digital and Omnichannel Innovation: Coles has embraced digital transformation, offering online shopping, delivery, and click-and-collect services. This omnichannel approach increases convenience and competitiveness against rivals who may not have as robust an online presence.
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Loyalty Programs: Coles operates the flybuys loyalty program, which rewards customers for their purchases. This leads to repeat business and helps gather valuable consumer data to tailor offerings and promotions more effectively.
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Strong Financial Performance: A solid financial position allows Coles to invest in growth initiatives, technology upgrades, and marketing campaigns, helping it maintain a competitive edge.
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Partnerships and Collaborations: Coles strategically partners with suppliers and local farmers, which can enhance product offerings, improve supply chain reliability, and support local economies.
Overall, these competitive advantages enable Coles Group Ltd to maintain a strong position in the competitive Australian retail landscape, allowing it to respond quickly to market changes and consumer demands.
Coles Group Ltd, one of Australia's leading supermarket chains, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some of the key areas of concern:
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues can affect product availability, leading to empty shelves and dissatisfied customers. Factors include shipping delays, raw material shortages, and logistical challenges.
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Competition: The retail grocery sector is highly competitive. Coles faces challenges from both traditional competitors like Woolworths and Aldi, as well as online grocery services and emerging discount retailers.
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Consumer Behaviour Changes: Shifts in consumer preferences toward online shopping, health-conscious products, and sustainable goods can impact Coles’ market share. Adapting to these changes while maintaining profitability is crucial.
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Economic Conditions: Economic fluctuations, including inflation and changes in disposable income, can affect consumer spending habits. A downturn could lead to decreased sales, particularly in non-essential items.
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Regulatory Environment: Changes in government policies related to food safety, labor laws, environmental regulations, or taxes can impose additional costs or operational challenges.
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Technological Disruption: The rise of e-commerce and digital payment systems requires continuous investment in technology. Coles must adapt to innovations to enhance customer experience and streamline operations.
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Labor Issues: Workforce challenges, including labor shortages or strikes, can disrupt operations. Ensuring employee satisfaction and managing labor costs are important for maintaining service levels.
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Sustainability and Ethical Practices: Consumers increasingly prioritize sustainability. Coles must ensure its sourcing practices, waste management, and community engagement align with these values to maintain brand loyalty.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As Coles increases its digital footprint, the risk of cyberattacks grows. Protecting customer data and maintaining operational integrity are critical for the company's reputation.
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Health Crises: Ongoing impacts of health crises, such as COVID-19, can lead to shifts in consumer behavior, supply chain interruptions, and changes in operational protocols.
In summary, while Coles Group Ltd is well-positioned in the Australian grocery market, it must navigate these risks and challenges strategically to sustain growth and competitiveness.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Coles Group Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Coles Group Ltd
Current Assets | 4B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 675m |
Receivables | 496m |
Other Current Assets | 2.8B |
Non-Current Assets | 15.9B |
Long-Term Investments | 225m |
PP&E | 12.7B |
Intangibles | 2.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 789m |
Current Liabilities | 6.8B |
Accounts Payable | 3.4B |
Accrued Liabilities | 757m |
Other Current Liabilities | 2.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 9.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 9.2B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 324m |
Earnings Waterfall
Coles Group Ltd
Revenue
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43.7B
AUD
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Cost of Revenue
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-32.3B
AUD
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Gross Profit
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11.4B
AUD
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Operating Expenses
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-9.3B
AUD
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Operating Income
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2.1B
AUD
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Other Expenses
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-1B
AUD
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Net Income
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1.1B
AUD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Coles Group Ltd
AUD | |
Free Cash Flow | AUD |
COL Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Coles Group Ltd's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Coles Group Ltd's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
COL Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Coles Group Ltd's solvency score is 29/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Coles Group Ltd's solvency score is 29/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
COL Price Targets Summary
Coles Group Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COL is 19.36 AUD with a low forecast of 16.78 AUD and a high forecast of 22.63 AUD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for COL is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
COL Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Coles Group Ltd. engages in the operation of supermarkets and retail stores. The company is headquartered in Hawthorn, Victoria and currently employs 120,000 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2018-11-21. The firm is focused on providing customers with everyday products, including fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, liquor, fuel and financial services through its store network and online platforms. The firm operates through three segments: Supermarket, Liquor, and Express. The supermarket segment offers fresh food, groceries and general merchandise retailing, which includes Coles Online and Coles Financial Services. The Liquor segment operates a range of liquor retailing formats consisting of three brands, such as Liquorland, Vintage Cellars, First Choice Liquor and First Choice Liquor Market and an online liquor retail offer. The firm's Express segment offers convenience store operations and commission agent for retail fuel sales. The company operates approximately 2,500 retail outlets nationally.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one COL stock under the Base Case scenario is 21.82 AUD.
Compared to the current market price of 18.16 AUD, Coles Group Ltd is Undervalued by 17%.