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OCI NV
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Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's OCI Global First Quarter 2024 Results. My name is Drew, and I'll be your operator today. During today's call, there will be a Q&A session I will now turn the call over to Sarah Rajani, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon, and good morning to our audience in the Americas. Thank you for joining the OCI Global First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. With me today are Ahmed El-Hoshy, our Chief Executive Officer; and Hassan Badrawi, our Chief Financial Officer. On this call, we will review OCI's key operational events and financial highlights for the quarter, followed by a discussion of OCI's outlook and an update on the strategic review. As usual, at the end of the call, we will wrap with Q&A. The results, press release and presentation and financial statements are available on our website at otiglobal.com. We will be referring to slides in the results presentation throughout this call. I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made on this call involve risks and the actual results could differ materially from those statements. And with that, let me hand over to Ahmed.
Thank you, Sarah, and thank you all for joining us today. We'll start by providing an update on the recently announced divestitures of the Biofertilizer Company and Fertiiglobe to Coke and AOL, respectively, as well as the ongoing strategic review at OCI. We will give a brief recap of OCI's first quarter performance before providing a progress support on our Texas Blue clean ammonia project. Finally, we will run through our perspectives on the business and market outlook. As per every call, we start with reaffirming our strong commitment to safety, which remains our top priority. Our 12-month rolling recordable incident rate was 0.24 content per 200,000 work hours at the end of March, significantly below industry averages. Notwithstanding this, we reaffirm our focus on operational process safety throughout the organization as part of our manufacturing improvement journey, which we'll get into a little bit later today. Q1 experienced a mix of both market and operational headwinds, which have set out which have set out to explain -- which we set out to explain in the slides. Compared to results in the same period in 2023, global nitrogen prices were lower, driven by hauling gas prices and supply fluctuations as well as some demand deferral in European fertilizer markets on account of adverse weather patterns. Notwithstanding this, first quarter earnings benefited from lower gas cost tailwinds and improved operational performance compared to Q1 2023. Our U.S. operations experienced some unplanned outages related to the winter freeze, although the impact on production and the associated EBITDA opportunity loss was lower than Q1 2023, reflecting investment in reliability improvement initiatives. Since undertaking repairs and restarting plants, and restarting the production our plants have been operating in almost all cases above historical average utilization rates in onstream types. As you will note, we have started to see improvements on the operational side and expect continued progress in our manufacturing improvement journey in both reliability and efficiency metrics over time. In terms of operational highlights, our 1.1 million tonne clean ammonia project Texas Blue remains on track for production in the first half of 2025. Our recent expansions into [indiscernible] within the European nitrogen portfolio further increases our exposure to attractive non-agricultural markets with significant pricing premiums over urea. As the European nitrogen business recovers from a trough year last year in 2023, these additional diversified products position us well to improve the profitability and free cash flow generation on a run rate basis for the facilities. Finally, we're in the process of applying for permitting to increase our throughput capacity at our Rotterdam import terminal to up to 2 million tonnes in a 2-phased approach to capture growing demand for ammonia to replace smaller and inefficient plants in Europe and for the decarbonization of those plants as well as other industries with the adoption of clean ammonia to various end markets. I will now hand over to Hassan to provide an update on the strategic review and our first quarter portfolio test.
Thanks, Ahmed, and welcome to everyone. Starting with Slide 6. To recap, in December of '23, we announced agreements to divest our stakes in Fertiglobe Iowa Fertilizer Company for ADNOC and Coke industries, respectively. These transactions were the result of a global strategic review initiated in 2023, and we'll crystallize $7.2 billion of tax -- cash proceeds or $6.2 billion on a net basis. I would like to reiterate guidance on a few important parameters in this regard. First, subject to completion of the announced transactions, we expect to significantly delever and to be in a net cash position at year-end 2024. This deleveraging will result in a robust financial position, for ample capacity to complete Line 1 of the Texas group project. Beyond this transition period, we expect to assume normalized leverage levels onwards. Secondly was, while we have all the regular dividend policy pending outcome of the strategic review, we have previously announced an extraordinary shareholder return of at least $3 billion during 2024 following completion of the transactions and receipts of proceeds. Note that the financial resources afforded to the company provide us with the flexibility to potentially deliver a higher dividend quantum over time. Thirdly, we received unanimous shareholder approval at our AGM that was held in April for both the Fertiglobe transaction and an initial extraordinary interim cash distribution of around 4.5 per share or the equivalent of approximately $1 billion. The distribution will take place through a repayment of capital or at the election of the shareholder as a regular cash dividend. The distribution will take place following the completion of the Fertiiglobe transaction in the second -- which is slated to take place in the second half of 2024. Lastly, there will be further extraordinary distribution of capital to shareholders, subject to the completion of the IFCO transaction, of course. Following -- furthermore, following significant inbound interest in the continuing business of the company, OCI continues to assess various options and opportunities to maximize value for all its stakeholders. [indiscernible] expect to update the market on the ongoing strategic review at the time of the Q2 2024 results announcement, which is currently planned to [ stiction ] in August.Turning to Slide 8 for a summary of our Q1 financial results. On a total basis, including discontinued assets, we reported Q1 2024 revenue of $1.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $297 million and an adjusted net profit of $36 million. Others year-on-year decline in revenue and adjusted EBITDA reflected lower nitrogen prices globally, which were partially offset by a reduction in natural gas prices in Europe and the U.S. Notwithstanding the impact of our existing gas hedges and notably reflected improved operational performance, which you can see in the form of increased open-[indiscernible] sales volumes at which Ahmed will comment further on later. On a continuing basis, excluding discontinued assets and adjusted for the realized gas hedge losses, continuing adjusted EBITDA would have shown a profit of $54 million compared to EUR 1 million in the first quarter of [indiscernible]. The future value of hedge losses within the continuing business is circa $135 million, including net gasoline. Of this, approximately $60 million is expected to be realized over the remainder of 2024 based on the current gas future curve. Due to OCI's hedge structuring, the actual cash impact on a net debt basis is expected to be circa $60 million or just under half of the future value of the unrealized has losses. Turning to Slide 9. This shows our net debt bridge on a continuing basis. The $2.2 billion as of 31st March 2024 includes outstanding bonds at OCI MV or the corporate level and drawn back bank facilities. Including discontinued operations, our total net debt position on a consolidated basis as at quarter end was $3.8 billion. Please note, continuing net debt will reflect cash flows from IFCO until due closing, all of IFCO's cash flows until then are attributable to OCI as per the signed agreements. OCI is also expected to receive a share of Fertiglobe announced second half 2023 dividend, which is scheduled for the distribution during the second quarter of 2024. No further dividends will be received by OCI Fertiglobe following this distribution as per designed agreements. Turning to Slide 10. This slide shows the year-on-year bridge for adjusted EBITDA on a continuing basis for both the European nitrogen and methanol segments. The increase year-on-year was driven by a confluence of factors, but most notably, operational improvements reflecting investment in facilities and the leadership's focus on rewarding manufacturing excellence. These self-help measures largely offset the weaker pricing environment and the impact from the U.S. winter fees. Turning to Slide 11. This slide shows the underlying performance of the continuing business segments adjusted for certain items that would not ordinarily be included in EBITDA adjustments. Absent these items, you can see that the continuing business on an annualized basis is progressing towards our previously shared milk cycle scenario. Of note, within the European Nitrogen, our first quarter EBITDA was impacted by lower CEM production due to a commercial decision to undertake routine maintenance during the period, taking advantage of a higher inventory position -- at the start of the year, following lower sales in Q4 of 2023. This had a subsequent impact on CEM production during the quarter.Turning to Slide 12. This slide highlights the value accretion to the business from continued investment in reliability, improvement initiatives and the positive trajectory in asset utilization rates, where our most recent [indiscernible] rates have approached have not exceeded historical levels, as Ahmed mentioned earlier. Excluding the impact of the winter freeze, average utilization rates at [indiscernible], methanol, ammonia and at net gasoline would have been 90%, 96% and 78%, respectively, for the first quarter. Of note, we expect significant further improvement at net gasoline upon completion of the turnaround that's taking place in the second quarter and are confident that we can achieve 90% plus [indiscernible] rates in line or above the industry average. Finally, turning to Slide 13. Here, you will find a recap of the guidance that we have provided for 2024, which remains largely unchanged. We expect to return at least $3 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of extraordinary dividends over the course of the year, subject, of course, to the completion of both transactions and the first 1 billion or 4.5 per share, which was approved by shareholders at last month's EGM and is expected to be paid in the second half of 2024. We continue to target a corporate cost base run rate of around $30 million to $40 million, which we expect to reach sometime during 2025 as we continue to restructure and execute the current strategic review. We continue to expect Texas Blue [indiscernible] to start production in the first half of 2025. From a balance sheet perspective, we expect to be net cash by the end of 2024, but then expect a more normalized leverage profile to be adopted going forward. Grew the maintenance CapEx estimate of $600 million and $125 million, respectively, remain unchanged on a continuing basis. And note, of course, that the bulk of the $600 million growth CapEx in 2024 is attributable to our investment in Texas [indiscernible] in ammonia as we ramp up our activities on site. [indiscernible] Texas roll initially be producing on a great basis only and tell transitions to Inter blue. With that, I will hand back to Ahmed for a discussion of OCI's continuing business status and market outlook.
Thanks, Hassan. So, if we go to Slide 15, this slide and the subsequent Slide 16 to 20, provide an overview of OCI's continuing asset profile. I don't propose to talk through these in detail but welcome questions at the end of the call to the extent they are. Then, I'd like to move to Slide 21 and our investment in Texas Blue clean ammonia. As you know, this will be a 3,000 tonne per day, 1.1 million tonne per year blue ammonia plant with optionality to double capacity through an identical second line that a lot of the offsite and utilities have already been sized for in the first slide. We remain the only blue -- the only greenfield blue ammonia plant to reach FID to date globally. Unlike green ammonia being a first mover in blue is hugely compelling, not only because the technology is proven, but critically because costs are only going up. As such, we have notably been first movers benefiting from favorable equipment costs, construction terms and mitigated that construction against inflationary pressures over the last 2.5 years. Slide 22 provides a snapshot of the project milestones reached today. As you can see, project execution as well advanced with $561 million spent as of the end of the last quarter in March 31, 2024, and $609 million spend as of today. Engineering work is also largely complete. Construction has significantly progressed. Piling is complete. Civil work is almost complete, and activities are focused on steel erection, mechanical work and equipment arrival and installation. Importantly, we remain on track for the first half of 2025 startup. Note that, as Hassan mentioned, production will be gray initially pivoting to Blue in 2026 when Exxon is expected to begin CO2 sequestration, aligning with the commencement of C-band in that same year.Moving on to Slide 23. I want to spend a little bit of time on this slide. This chart on the left highlights the plant's competitive positioning due to the product's extremely low carbon intensity, and this is what we're going to go through in some of the charts. Compared to a great plan, Texas Blue's cash cost will benefit from this carbon tariff advantage over time as carbon order dose mechanism is implemented in Europe. It also shares a portion of the 45Q benefit with partners Linde and Exxon in the form of a lower blue hydrogen feedstock price over the fence to OCI. From a carbon intensity perspective, all aspects of the class design incorporate reaching the lowest blue blue ammonia carbon footprint. There is no other ammonia plant operational under construction today that meets these standards. Over 95% of the CO2 will be captured at the Linde hydrogen-producing autothermal reformer plants and will be sequestered by Exxon without any mass balancing or enhanced oil recovery. We are using an electric-driven syngas compressor on our site and have sought to go electric where possible and practical. We are additionally sourcing renewable power and recently signed the BPPA or virtual PPA to cover most of our needs at the ammonia plant. Outside of the feedstock costs, we also incurred lower fixed costs versus a typical grade producer because the Texas Blue class is a back-end site only and therefore, excludes the [indiscernible] reforming section or the air separation unit from its fixed cost structure. [indiscernible] producers will typically own and operate an SMR or steam methane or former onsite. Under carbon border adjusting mechanism or Seabold, our greenfield ammonia will capture effectively the same economic benefit as green ammonia, but at materially lower costs, making this greenfield blue ammonia the most cost-competitive product for low-carbon pneumonia today. OCI's clean ammonia will have a carbon intensity profile of less than 0.5 kilograms of CO2 per kilogram of ammonia, a reduction of over 80% versus current grade ammonia industry standards. But this is cringe gate -- or cradle-to-grave CO2 and includes Lindiscope and its scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. EBAM is only focused on Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, not Scope 3. And Scope 3 is where the bulk of Blue [indiscernible] emissions come due to the upstream methane for the natural gas that's being consumed. Therefore, if OCI's blue ammonia were to be made with renewable electricity as is currently contemplated, the CO2 footprint on Scope 1 and Scope 2 would give it a CPAP threshold almost equivalent to green ammonia. On the right-hand side, we give an indication of the implied price premium for blue ammonia versus gray according to end-use demand and willingness to pay. A few points for consideration. Firstly, as the only market to have a currently defined regulatory framework that incentivizes low-carbon ammonia, Europe will be a key market to place blue ammonia as EBAM is enacted from 2026 and has allowed the phased out over the next several years, consultants expect that European ammonia prices will begin to incorporate increases to accommodate expected CO2 cost increases. Second, before other low-carbon ammonia sources fully come online, the local U.S. market will serve as a pool of demand to achieve good netbacks with shorter and lower freight costs for this [indiscernible] plant. Thirdly, Asian demand is expected to ramp up from 2027 onwards as regulatory incentives come into effect, simulating ammonia demand for power generation from local players requiring co-firing with coal plants or hydrogen co-firing natural gas plants. We're in advanced conversations with interested offtakers in East Asia for long-term contracts with revenue streams structured in a way that minimizes OCI's exposure to commodity price volatility and inflation creating more predictability of cash flows. Finally, marine market demand for blue ammonia is expected to come online in 2027 as the first dual fuel ammonia engines are commercialized. Today, 28 ammonia dual-fuel chips are on order, but a further 260 ships are being built to be ammonia ready requiring only engine retrofits. Some conservative estimates based on actual ship orders point to demand for marine ammonia in 2027 approximately 2 million tonnes per annum potentially and rising rapidly, with industry consultants forecasting upside of 30 million tonnes by 2035. Pricing is expected to be based on the regulatory value using blue ammonia compared to the current pricing of the lowest cost fossil fuel comparator, HFO, VLSFO or MGO, in Europe with the pure EU maritime penalties coming into effect from 2025. Demand for blue ammonia as the hydrogen carrier also presents new application sources of demand growth in the future or cracking into hydrogen. Finally, I just wanted to add that the IRS recently published its guidance for sustainable aviation fuel tax credits. For the first time in any federal and state biofuel program, climate smart agricultural practices, including the use of sustainable fertilizers are now included as a lever to lower the carbon intensity of sustainable aviation view and creative value. This is very encouraging news for the upcoming 45s clean fuel production tax credit guidance, which covers a wide range of fuels, including ethanol. This guidance to properly include low carbon fertilizers will potentially provide significant regulatory value for low carbon ammonia and materially benefit OCI on domestic low-carbon sales over time. Turning to the markets in which we operate, starting with methanol on Slide 26. This slide provides an overview of the global methanol demand by Angie, as we all know. As stated, we expect demand growth for methanol of fuel to rise rapidly as both the low-carbon marine fuel and potentially a sustainable aviation fuel via [indiscernible] as regulatory targets such as the 45 clean production, fuel tax credit come into effect. Note that OCI's high fuel business is well positioned to capitalize on this emerging demand, a first mover and market leader in green methanol supply with a low-scale platform to serve an increasing need. Turning to Slide 27. Although Q1 realized prices were lower year-over-year sequentially, the market has been improving as it benefits from accelerating demand and tightening supply. Near term, we expect demand to improve from Q1 levels as gas restrictions ease and seasonal construction and mobility demand improves. -- positive economic indicators supporting moderate growth for traditional chemical applications with favorable energy pricing and support from oil and coal prices. In China, the methanol market is improving across all sectors, and we see pricing supported by metal methanol to olefins or MTO economics that justify operating rates above the last 3-year average. In Iran, the Minister of Royal recently outlined plans to address escalating domestic gasoline shortages by utilizing methanol to produce gasoline through methanol to gasoline, a proposal that would significantly reduce global availability of methanol and cause prices to increase. This also could be done via methanol blending into gasoline or via methanol into MTBE to go onto gasoline, all of which can result in potentially more of a deficit in terms of demand in Iran and less exports reaching the Part East Asian markets. some industry consultants, including Argus, estimate significant reductions of stoppage of imports from Iran could cause global methanol prices to increase to over -- by over $100 a ton from today's prices to the $400 per tonne range. We expect the confluence of these factors to support price momentum back towards mid-cycle levels, as you can see in the chart on the right-hand side of the slide. Longer term, as new sources of demand emerge, we see an increasing structural gap between demand and new capacity. We expect this gap to be per exacerbated by the rationalization of less efficient capacity and gas supply related curtailments. This is further highlighted on Slide 28, where we see supply growth strings, the made outstripping supply by 8 million tonnes over the 2025 to 2028 period, excluding any growth from methanol as a marine fuel. Including the potential demand growth for methanol and rain fuel, this gap could be as large as 16 million tons per year based on current projections for new supply. Slide 29 highlights the key role that both methanol ammonia plays enablers of the hydrogen -- emerging hydrogen transition with clean fuels offering significant reductions in emissions versus conventional fuels. Slide 30 provides more details on regulatory demand drivers for green methanol and associated rapid growth in both road and marine fuels with other potential upside from the aviation industry. And finally, Slide 31 gives a snapshot of the methanol marine order book today, which we've discussed before, where the incremental expected methanol demand for marine fuels is expected to increase materially over the next decade.Moving to ammonia markets on Slide 33. Ammonia started off on a soft note this year due to the reduced European gas costs and the return of supply falling widespread disruptions in Q4 '23. Ammonia prices stabilized in the latter half of the quarter, driven mainly by improving demand from an early U.S. spring application season, combined with various outages in the United States, Middle East and Indonesia. In the near term, merchant supply is expected to increase with the arrival of new capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast and an increase in Rusin exports through a new Black Sea terminal, which are both expected later this year. Notwithstanding this, several key ammonia markets are showing signs of improved import demand, and we expect this to support the global trade recovery in merchant ammonia following 2 years of construction. Slide 34 shows tightness in the gray merchant ammonia market with the demand growth set to outpace supply growth in the medium term, pushing global utilization rates higher and in turn, providing potential pricing support. We also see further risk of plant closures in the EU and Trinidad, not currently reflected in these numbers. Longer term, whilst we expect an increase in low-carbon projects from 2028 onwards, over 60% of these projects are still in the early phase of development with long lead times of over 5 years. It is also worth noting that historical performance suggests that only about 25% of announced projects will reach commissioning based on historical experience, which you can refer to in more detail on Slide 36. Moving to Slide 35. As previously stated, the increased visibility on regulatory demand from 2026 onwards provides support for accelerating demand for emerging new applications as shown in the chart, maritime, power generation ammonias hydrogen carrier combined with combined could generate as much as 24 million tons of incremental ammonia demand by 2030, which is significant in a global traded market of currently approximately 17 million tons. Finally, on Slide 36, demand for ammonia bunkering is becoming increasingly exciting development. As you can see -- actually, sorry, on Slide 37 with projected consultant demand expected to kick up as early as 2017, as I mentioned earlier, from the floor vessels being notes. With that, in closing, I wish to extend my thanks to the entire global OCI team for their valued contribution and my colleagues ongoing commitment to safety and manufacturing excellence and improvement. With that, we conclude our prepared remarks, and we'll open the line for questions.
Thank you. We will now start today's live Q&A [Operator Instructions]. Our first question today comes from Lisa De Neve from Morgan Stanley.
I have two quick questions. First of all, can you provide us with an update on where the core divestment is in the antitrust process? Any details on that would be very helpful. And then secondly, on Page 23 of your presentation, you're referencing the sharing of the 45Q credit at the OCI Blue ammonia plant. Can you provide some details on how we should think about your implied share of that credit
I think your first question was regarding the ISO asset trust review process. Is that your first question?
Correct. Yes.
Yes. So obviously, there's the regular FTC process that we've been going through. I can't provide too much in terms of details where we've been kind of obviously sharing documents alongside Coke with the government, and we continue to believe that it's on track with a completion in 2024, as we've guided to before. So, it's just a matter of sense. With regards to your second question with regards to the sharing of the 45Q we're not disclosing publicly how much of the 45Q credit is $85 a ton of CO2, which is approximately around like $140-or-so ton of ammonia. We're not sharing how much of that is going to OCI specifically versus Linden Exxon because it's not a public number. But to give you a sense, obviously, we could do a competitive process for hydrogen supply and nitrogen supply with Linde. And Linde also did a competitive process for their carbon [indiscernible] when they ultimately chose exon. So, I think it's safe to say that a decent portion of that is being used to help reduce our blue hydrogen price once the 45Q credits are generated in 2026. But that is all being administered and done upstream from us. We're just receiving a lower blue hydrogen price under the structure.
Our next question comes from Aron Ceccarelli from Berenberg.
I have three questions. The first one is about blue ammonia. Your competitor in the U.S. has announced a joint development agreement for around 400,000 tonnes of blue ammonia. And I'm just wondering what is impacting is anything that's impacting your ability at stage why haven't we seen any offtake agreement yet considering that you are expecting to ramp up capacity in the first half in 2025, even if at the beginning will be gray ammonia, my understanding. The second question is about, again, muni just wondering about.
Can I interrupt you for a second. I just -- can you repeat who you're referring to? I couldn't hear that a we'll just try to answer this question first. What were you saying our competitor is what?
Your competitors Industries in the U.S.
What about them?
So particularly, yes, they announced a joint development agreement with JERA, talking about 500 kilotons of blue ammonia potentially as an offtake agreement?
Okay. So, the question is why have we not seen an uptick -- any offtake agreement signed for blue ammonia? Is that your question?
Yes. Yes. Basically, yes.
Okay. So yes, I think that you're right to point out, there have been no global binding, blue offtake agreements and [indiscernible] offtake agreements globally, whether it's into East Asia or into Europe. And so there have been significant announcements in MOUs. There's been early-stage development work, like I said in prepared remarks on multiple plants, but we're the only one that's under FID and under construction right now.It's hard to venture, I guess, as to why they haven't been signed in terms of optics, but I do think in a market like this, where there's significant announced projects, a lot of discussions happening. It's about getting comfortable with taking the long-term risk with an offtake. We are having very deep discussions with potential offtakers in various markets, whether it's European or Asian markets. Part of it has been a delay in Asia. So, in Japan and Korea, the anticipated incentive program was supposed to happen last year, but it's been delayed until this year. And so, we anticipate seeing kind of a bit more activity in the space over the next year as opposed to Japanese greens as well as the Singapore and are looking to secure blue ammonia in demand in of the 2027 period and onwards and wrapping up quite swiftly. Into Europe. As we mentioned in the past, we do anticipate shutdown of less-efficient ammonia plants, and they've been buying on and off to run downstream production, and we've seen some permanent shutdowns in Germany and the U.K. and France. So, we do anticipate potential uptake into the European markets, supported by the incentive that is in place, which is the carbon border adjustment mechanism that will become a reality in 2026 and start increasing significantly on to there. And as I mentioned earlier, there are a few other incentives like this new potential 45 and others that we're focused on for [indiscernible].
Is it fair to assume that.
Go ahead.
Is it fair to assume that most of the capacity will be targeting the European market? Is there a fair assumption?
So, we don't go into detail into where we sell our various products. The beauty of this Texas plant is that we have the ability to sell domestically in the United States, and we intend to do so as well as into Europe as well as into potentially Asian markets and other demand sources. So just like any other potential export and domestic selling plants, we have the optionality to do those and we can adjust it based on where we see the most value.
Maybe just a final one on the permitting for the second line. When would you expect to get the permitting?
Yes. We expect -- we started the second line permitting expect to receive that during the course of this year. So, kind of probably in the second half of this year. And we'll have that available to us for -- yes, we not build this was for 18 months after we receive that permit. We always see very much anticipate therapy because it's a back end only plans and it's a good option for us to the second line.
Our next question comes from Arun Konkoth from Verition.
I was just wondering, you had mentioned this on the call and you put in the slides in terms of your net cash position by the end of the year, then the possibility to take up the leverage as it goes on. I mean can you maybe talk through considering those comments, how you think about investment-grade ratings and just your go-forward balance sheet? Any kind of color you can give on that.
Yes. No, as we mentioned in our previous earnings call, it's -- we've -- we wanted to share with the market our thinking around the short-term target during the transition period where we have had significant strategic review ongoing and now current strategic review as well as a result of inbound interest, as we mentioned in our prepared statements. I think part of the message is that on a normalized basis, going forward, this continued business would not operate with a lazy balance sheet, we would opt to return to a healthy leverage situation. As in so far as it relates to ratings, we have a prudent financial policy that we've exercised for the past several years, and we'll continue to approach our balance sheet in the same way. Obviously, all we can do is set a prudent financial policy. However, it's up to the rating agencies, how they evaluate the changes that have resulted out of the strategic review that may result in a tug.
Got it. I mean, if I could just follow up really quickly. I mean, do you anticipate -- I mean, maybe the push and pull between obviously levered debt coming down and the delevering, but also a lack of diversity maybe historically versus your product offering, and how you may think about that playing into the rating?
We lost you there for a few seconds. Do you even repeat that?
Sorry, I was just checking how you thought maybe in terms of your conversations with the rating agencies, the deleveraging would balance out the lack of diversity versus historical product offering. So just trying to see like how in tune with the ratings you guys are and just the conversations there on that front.
Yes. Obviously, I mean we have -- our modest operand is to have quite a robust and active relationship with the rating agencies always updating them on the progress of all our initiatives and our thinking regarding the balance sheet. You're right, there is a calibration that will take place in due course as we complete our strategic review and see where we land, that will have an impact on the parameters of the business, and it would be after the rating agencies to make a determination based on that outcome and based on our announced policy, how we see our balance sheet going forward. But at this point, I can't really share any more around the discussion that we're having with the rating agencies.
Our next question comes from Angelina Glazova from JPMorgan.
I only have one on your U.S. methanol assets. So, you have provided quite a useful bridge on Slide 11 where you explain the progress towards the mid-cycle levels. And one of the points that you're pointing out is that's effectively removing the impact from winter freeze would also allow for additional upside. And I just wanted to ask if you could clarify to what extent this is effectively in your control because we can also see that it obviously affects other companies also your peers just because of the weather conditions in general. And I just wondered maybe if you could give a bit more color to what extent you can actually minimize that? And to what extent it will actually remain subject to external conditions.
Yes. Thanks for that question. So, with Hassan walked through kind of thinking about what happened during that first quarter. The winter fees was just shown on an illustrative basis to add back that it was $15 million of EBITDA ahead in Q1. Now the reason we're focusing on that is because at our sites, we've been focused on winterization. This is -- these sites historically have been rated for weather conditions that are a bit warmer, but we've seen some very cold winters, and this one was no exception in Q1 of this year. So, we've actually started making investments and in part of our CapEx plan with [indiscernible], which are basically providing excess heat in certain areas to get pools for remote freezing, et cetera, so that we can be able to run during these lower temperatures, which are often experienced with other plants in northern parts of the U.S., Canada elsewhere. So, for us on a go-forward basis, we do think it was out of our control in terms of the winter and it affected a lot of the U.S. Gulf Coast, but particularly for our Ocean Beaumont plant, for example, which is a very small compact side, we do see a path towards being able to send a guess, the next few winters with kind of addressing some of those pulp areas. And similarly, we're looking at the same with our net gasoline plant. I think it's important to note, and I think I mentioned it earlier. We are happy to see some of the initial fruits of our focus on manufacturing improvement. We still think there's work to be done. But without this winter freeze, our onstream efficiency in OCI Beaumont methanol would have been 95% for the quarter. For book ammonia would have been 98% for the quarter. And for that gasoline, as mentioned, would have been 99% for the quarter. If you were to exclude those outages related to the winter freeze and our focus is to take them from out of our control in our control of some of these investments.
Our next question comes from Andrew Keches from Barclays.
Just two clarification items in terms of how you plan to apply the proceeds. So you mentioned earmarking a portion for fully funding the remaining Texas Blue CapEx? I know you spent I think you said $600 million, give or take, thus far. Can you just give us an update and remind us how much is remaining on that project specifically?
I mean, what we've shared with the market so far is that the project is expected to be north of $1 billion. We haven't given any explicit guidance on the number yet for commercial reasons. It is true that at this point, as we stand today, it's close to $600 million have been spent on the project, and progress is progressing quite well. We share pictures on the site of the site, every opportunity we get, as we're very proud of the progress that's being made there. In terms of the allocation of proceeds, we've already committed to return capital to shareholders of at least $3 billion. We do believe there will be able to be this number over time. Obviously, there will be a significant deleveraging of our balance sheet that will take place. But I think as we approach the close of the transactions, we will be able to give more explicit guidance on the exact allocation. But for now, we've given some directional guidance, which we think we hope is helpful.
Okay. Yes. No, it's absolutely helpful. Just to follow up on that. With respect to -- you've talked about significant deleveraging of the balance sheet. That much is clear, particularly on a net debt basis. You've also, I think, indicated there would be actual gross debt repayment, not just holding of cash. But maybe if I could frame this more philosophically for what the RemainCo, do you expect an intent to keep a level of debt outstanding on that entity? Gross debt.
For the transition. Yes. I mean on a -- for the continuing basis on a sort of medium to long term, we do expect to maintain a healthy level of leverage. It is obviously a smaller business and with less diversity than our starting point pre the strategic review on the divestitures. So that will be also taken into consideration.
Okay. Very helpful. Appreciate it.
Our next question comes from Sashank Lanka from Bank of America.
I have 2 questions from my side. When I look at your CapEx guidance, you talked about a maintenance CapEx of around $125 million. I'm just wondering, firstly, that's for continuing business. And with the blue ammonia plant coming online next year, how should we be looking at that CapEx on a more normalized basis, given the growth CapEx is going to obviously be 0 next year, at least as of now for the blue ammonia project? That's the first question. The second question is you did see a significant improvement in volumes across all of your assets in Q1, notwithstanding all of the production outages due to the winter. So I'm just wondering, going forward, on a normalized basis, how should we expect sequential pickup in volumes over the next 3 quarters.
Yes. In terms of guidance, I mean, we've -- the guidance is limited to 2024. So that figure of $125 million of mat related to the current year. We don't really give forward yoga. But I think it's -- that number, given its Texas blue is a 2025 start, we'll be able to give more guidance on the spending required or maintenance copperplate in future period when we get to the commissioning. But as you know, brand-new plants require significantly less maintenance CapEx than our existing portfolio or all the plants. Sorry, I didn't catch the second part of your question?
I just wanted to understand on the potential for volume recovery sequentially over the next three quarters this year from your continuing business?
We have the volume recoveries, oven. So I mean we don't give guidance in terms of volumes. I think as we do have a turnaround happening in the second quarter for net gasoline, which will obviously affect volumes. But just stepping back as far as manufacturing, we do feel like we've turned the corner in terms of a lot of the equipment adjustments that have equipment issues that have been addressed, including this turnaround is Macassa were addressing a few specific issues as well. We've really rebound leadership across all our continuing sites as well as even the [indiscernible] site because we do continue to benefit on those cash flows we're encouraged with, for example, IO fertilizer has been running since the extended turnaround last year in November. It's been running at a very healthy onstream rate. And we anticipate the same for net gasoline when it comes out of this tract. When it comes from [indiscernible] and Production and Ocean nitrogen, Similarly, there's been a big focus on bad actors, really prioritizing the right items at site on process safety and operational safety. So we're looking to target higher and higher output in utilization and better and better efficiencies. We've seen a lot of firsts here in the first half of this year in terms of some of the efficiency levels we've reached globally, and we want to continue to invest those over the coming quarters and years to come.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a -- our next question is a follow-up from Aaron Ceccarelli from Berenberg.
Follow-up. Just one on BioMC. Maybe can you provide an update on what and what kind of gas price should we see in the plan back into the market .
Yes. So, with regard to the gas price, I mean, as we were mentioning in the last call, we were kind of approaching kind of levels that we can consider it. But obviously, we saw TTF go up a bit in the last 2 months. So, we're continuing to monitor to find our kind of CapEx expectation in terms of what a restart can look like. We've also been looking and are encouraged by potential to run more and more on kind of a green feedstock basis as the EU is awarding more projects for green hydrogen. So, we continue to really like the attractiveness of the optionality there. And we've seen some interesting numbers on the CapEx side to be able to kind of grow on a green feedstock where we have the advantage with all the infrastructure in place now to move that product. And we're having good discussions. So, we'll provide an update to the market as those continue. But we'd like to see a bit of a lower gas price than kind of that $9 BT level we're at today. Obviously, if we do see Iran, as I was mentioning during the prepared remarks, start drawing a lot of methanol domestically for gasoline purposes and tighten the methanol market. That's something we could react quite quickly to and be able to generate a bit amount of EBITDA in both gray and green basis in Italy and then go to green over time and longer term, obviously, well positioned for the Permian basis because we're connected to broader not far.
Our next question comes from Stijn Demeester from ING.
Two, if I may. First one is a clarification. Can you clarify your comments on the NPV of the gas hedging losses, which you mentioned that 135 million. And then specifically on actual cash cost of 60 million you mentioned, is this the cost over the remaining period or simply for 2024? Then the second question is, you mentioned in the past that the IFCO sale was a competitive process with multiple bidders. I would like to know how important a factor potential antitrust issues were in selecting Kokas the final bidder.
Yes, sorry. Maybe the first on the realized on the future value of the hedge losses, I can't confirm that we were referring to the perimeter of the continuing business, which is circa $135 million, which does include net I believe in the last quarter, we referred to a number that excluded net gasoline. So, for completeness, we've included the years. And as I mentioned during the prepared remarks, of this, approximately $60 million is expected to be realized during the remainder of 2024, applying the current forward curve. So about just under half of that of that portfolio would basically run out in 2024. We also added -- we also -- I also mentioned during the prepared remarks that overall, of the $135 million due to the structure of these hedges that the actual cash out or the cash impact on net debt in the future will be around under half of that number going forward. I hope that's clear.
Okay. Understood.
Ahmed on the answer to.
Sure. Good question with regards to the process. Obviously, we can go to detail on what the process entails, -- we took a number of considerations in terms of -- if you look at not just the price that is paid by the other party, but also the various terms associated with the sales purchase agreement. So, it is one of many considerations go in there. We see that the coke as a counterparty made a very good one. It's a third player behind [indiscernible]. So smaller than those players in the nitrogen market, which also includes players like CBR, LSB, Simplot Advantec, [indiscernible] or others. So that, coupled with the fact that it's a globally traded commodity, and they develop -- there's a developed infrastructure for imports, meaning that we have to always compare and look at import parity where some of the factors there. But it's definitely -- when you think about it from a totality of over perspective, we all in, it's an important consideration and not the only consideration, but it's an important consideration, and we felt and Coke felt strongly about this being an adequate union with regards to the merger. And one last thing I'd say is Coke that biofertilizer, as you know, is mainly a UAN and DEF plant. It produces very little metammonia and very little net urea in the local markets. And Coke is not a major player in the UAN or the CDS space, particularly and particularly not in the Midwest throughout the United States.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Lisa Denise from Morgan Stanley.
Just a small one. On your strategic review, can you share whether you've received interest for the whole company on a continued basis or more interest for the separate assets? And so, for methanol or [indiscernible] or for the blue ammonia plants?
Even though I understand your question, all I can -- all we can say at this point is what you've seen in the remarks that are prepared in the press release, there's inbound interest on the continuing business. I can't really delve into the details of that at this time.
We have no further questions in the live Q&A call. I will hand back over to Sarah to go through the webcast questions. Thank you.
Thank you. Majority of the questions on the webcast have actually been answered. And we have one outstanding question from [indiscernible], which is how do you anticipate the pricing of blue ammonia once Texas becomes operational? And how does this anticipated pricing compared to that of gray ammonia?
So we, I appreciate your question. And we don't provide pricing guidance even in the near term alone a year out. And I think that what we can say kind of directionally is that as we mentioned, we are a great plan expected to start production next year. And then if it comes blue in 2026 when Exxon requested the CO2 45Q credits are generated. We see that from a great perspective, you have to have a view on where the gray markets are at and how they look and we talk through how much additional supply is coming over the next 2 years versus the demand and the demand recoveries. Starting '26 when carbon border also mechanisms in place, I think that's the good one where you can kind of take a forward curve, look at CO2 as that's implemented over time. And over the course of the subsequent few years that will have more and more effect on passing through that higher CO2 price for in quarter and domestic European producers that are going to have less free allowances and that's something that we look to take advantage of as a Bluemont producer into the European markets. I think the incentives in the East Asian markets will also be a bill sine as well as what the supply and demand suggest Currently, from a supply and demand perspective. As I mentioned, we are the only one under construction globally that is blue by all global standards. And so we hope that, that kind of scarcity value will incentivize not just a good adequate pricing and returns for the products we're selling, but also we can identify more supply and demand over time as we develop this market for new users.
There are no further questions on the webcast.
There are still no further questions on the live Q&A. So, I'll hand back over to Ahmed El-Hoshy to close the call.
Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call. We have a good question and looking forward to next.