InPost SA
AEX:INPST
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one INPST stock under the Base Case scenario is 15.86 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 17.21 EUR, InPost SA is Overvalued by 8%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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InPost SA
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Fundamental Analysis
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InPost SA, a trailblazer in the European logistics and parcel delivery sector, has revolutionized the way consumers access and send packages. Founded in Poland in 2006, the company embraced an innovative approach to last-mile delivery with its network of automated parcel lockers, allowing customers to conveniently pick up and drop off packages at their leisure. This strategy not only meets the growing demand for e-commerce solutions but also aligns seamlessly with modern consumer preferences for speed and convenience. As online retail continues to expand globally, InPost stands at the forefront, equipped with a scalable business model that integrates technology and user-friendly interfaces,...
InPost SA, a trailblazer in the European logistics and parcel delivery sector, has revolutionized the way consumers access and send packages. Founded in Poland in 2006, the company embraced an innovative approach to last-mile delivery with its network of automated parcel lockers, allowing customers to conveniently pick up and drop off packages at their leisure. This strategy not only meets the growing demand for e-commerce solutions but also aligns seamlessly with modern consumer preferences for speed and convenience. As online retail continues to expand globally, InPost stands at the forefront, equipped with a scalable business model that integrates technology and user-friendly interfaces, setting itself apart in a competitive landscape.
The company's evolution took a significant stride when it went public in 2021, gaining traction among investors due to its strong growth trajectory and commitment to sustainability. With operations extending beyond Poland into key European markets, InPost has attracted partnerships with major e-commerce players, enhancing its market presence and driving revenue growth. Moreover, the strategic use of its locker network has not only reduced delivery costs but also contributed to lower carbon footprints, appealing to a more environmentally-conscious consumer base. As the e-commerce ecosystem continues to evolve, InPost SA represents a promising investment opportunity, leveraging innovative logistics solutions to capitalize on the expanding digital marketplace.
InPost SA is a logistics and technology company based in Poland, primarily known for its innovative parcel locker solutions. The company operates in several core business segments:
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Parcel Lockers/Automated Parcel Machines (APMs): This is InPost's flagship service, providing automated self-service parcel lockers for sending and receiving packages. These lockers are strategically placed in urban locations, allowing customers to pick up and drop off parcels at their convenience, which greatly enhances the consumer experience.
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E-commerce Logistics: InPost supports the e-commerce sector by providing a range of logistic services, including last-mile delivery solutions. This segment caters to online retailers and ensures timely and efficient delivery of goods.
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Software and Technology Solutions: InPost has developed a proprietary technology platform that integrates its logistics and delivery services. This segment focuses on enhancing operational efficiency and improving customer experience through advanced tracking systems and data analytics.
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Retail Partnerships: InPost collaborates with various retail partners to expand its network of parcel lockers, making it easier for online shoppers to return items or pick up deliveries. This segment helps retailers enhance their customer service while boosting InPost’s operational footprint.
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International Expansion: While originally focused on the Polish market, InPost is seeking to expand its services internationally. This segment is focused on entering new regional markets and adapting its solutions to meet local demands.
Overall, InPost SA leverages technology and strategic partnerships to create value across these core segments, aiming to enhance the efficiency and convenience of package delivery in the growing e-commerce landscape.
InPost SA, a leading provider of parcel locker services, has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the logistics and parcel delivery industry:
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Extensive Network of Lockers: InPost operates one of the largest networks of automated parcel lockers, which provide convenience for customers to pick up and drop off parcels at their convenience, reducing dependency on traditional delivery systems. This extensive network is particularly attractive to e-commerce businesses looking for flexible delivery options.
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Innovative Technology: The company employs advanced technology in its operations, including a user-friendly app and integration with various e-commerce platforms. This technology enhances customer experience and streamlines the logistics process, creating a competitive edge over companies relying on more traditional methods.
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Strong E-commerce Partnerships: InPost has established partnerships with a wide range of e-commerce platforms and retailers. These partnerships not only drive volume through their lockers but also solidify their position in the growing e-commerce market. This collaboration can lead to better market penetration and customer acquisition.
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Cost Efficiency: The automated nature of parcel lockers allows for reduced labor costs compared to traditional delivery methods that require a human workforce for every delivery. This cost structure can provide competitive pricing for customers and enhance profitability.
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Sustainability Focus: InPost emphasizes environmentally friendly practices, such as reducing carbon footprints associated with deliveries. This commitment to sustainability resonates with environmentally conscious consumers, potentially giving them an edge over competitors who do not prioritize eco-friendly practices.
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Scalability: The modular design of their locker systems allows InPost to easily scale operations and expand into new markets. This adaptability can be a significant advantage in rapidly growing e-commerce sectors or new geographical locations where logistics infrastructures may be lacking.
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Customer Convenience: The accessibility of parcel lockers significantly enhances customer convenience, allowing them to collect parcels at any time, which is increasingly in demand as consumers seek flexibility in their shopping experience.
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Brand Recognition and Trust: Being one of the first movers in the automated parcel locker market in certain regions has helped InPost build brand recognition and trust. This historical presence can serve as a barrier to entry for new competitors.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, InPost SA positions itself favorably within the logistics and parcel delivery landscape, particularly as online shopping continues to grow globally.
InPost SA, as a logistics and e-commerce solutions provider, faces several risks and challenges in the near future:
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Increased Competition: The logistics and parcel delivery market is highly competitive, with established players and new entrants continuously emerging. InPost must differentiate its services and maintain competitive pricing, which can erode margins.
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Regulatory Challenges: Changes in regulations related to e-commerce, data protection, and labor laws can impose additional costs and operational constraints on InPost's business model.
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Economic Volatility: Economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer spending, affecting the volume of parcels being shipped. InPost’s revenue could be negatively impacted during such periods.
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Technological Disruptions: The rapid pace of technological advancements in logistics and supply chain management requires ongoing investment in innovation. Failure to keep up could lead to loss of market share.
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Operational Risks: Challenges in managing logistics operations, including supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and maintenance of delivery infrastructure, can impact service quality and efficiency.
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Dependency on E-commerce Trends: As a player primarily in the e-commerce space, any decline in e-commerce growth or shifts in consumer behavior could directly impact InPost’s business model.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As a technology-driven company, InPost is vulnerable to cyberattacks, which could jeopardize sensitive customer data and operational integrity.
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Environmental Regulations: Increasing emphasis on sustainability and environmental impact may require InPost to adapt its operations and invest in greener technologies, which could raise costs.
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Partnership Risks: Reliance on partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers implies that any deterioration or changes in these relationships can directly affect InPost's business outlook.
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Global Supply Chain Issues: Current global supply chain challenges, such as delays, increased shipping costs, or availability of materials, can affect delivery times and operational costs.
In summary, InPost SA must navigate a complex landscape of competitive pressures, regulatory environments, and operational challenges while also adapting to the evolving expectations of consumers and businesses in the logistics space.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
InPost SA
Balance Sheet Decomposition
InPost SA
Current Assets | 2.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 787.6m |
Receivables | 1.6B |
Other Current Assets | 106.7m |
Non-Current Assets | 8.2B |
Long-Term Investments | 219.4m |
PP&E | 5.4B |
Intangibles | 2.4B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 259m |
Current Liabilities | 2.4B |
Accounts Payable | 1.1B |
Accrued Liabilities | 52.7m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 6.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 400.3m |
Earnings Waterfall
InPost SA
Revenue
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9.8B
PLN
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Cost of Revenue
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-251.3m
PLN
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Gross Profit
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9.5B
PLN
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Operating Expenses
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-7.7B
PLN
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Operating Income
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1.8B
PLN
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Other Expenses
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-763.1m
PLN
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Net Income
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994.7m
PLN
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
InPost SA
PLN | |
Free Cash Flow | PLN |
In Q3 2023, InPost achieved an 18% year-on-year volume growth and a 22% increase in revenue reaching PLN 2.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA soared by 40%, propelled by operational efficiencies and strategic repricing, driving the net leverage ratio down from 3.2x to 2.6x compared to the previous year. Poland saw a robust 24% revenue growth with a 13% hike in parcel volumes, while international markets witnessed a 28% rise in volumes and 20% in revenue. In particular, the UK operations achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA and became the #1 APM network amidst a market contraction. Market share expanded across all territories, notably with a 128% volume growth in the UK where the e-commerce market shrank by 5%. A strategic partnership with the Tour de France aims to elevate the brand in Europe, with a focus on eco-friendly transport and innovation. With over 60% of Poles living within 7 minutes of InPost lockers and a strong customer preference evident, the company's growth engines in Poland continue to fire on all cylinders, as mirrored by a record Net Promoter Score of 80.
What is Earnings Call?
INPST Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
InPost SA's profitability score is 57/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
InPost SA's profitability score is 57/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
INPST Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
InPost SA's solvency score is 24/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
InPost SA's solvency score is 24/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
INPST Price Targets Summary
InPost SA
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for INPST is 19.17 EUR with a low forecast of 8.28 EUR and a high forecast of 24.15 EUR.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for INPST is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
InPost SA (Luxembourg) operates as a holding company, which engages in the management of e-commerce enablement platform. The firm operates e-commerce enablement platform in Poland providing delivery services through Company's network of Automated Parcel Machines (APMs) and to-door couriers as well as fulfilment services to e-commerce merchants, including more than 1,100 in the United Kingdom. The firm provides delivery services via its network of over 12,000 APMs. The firm offers parcel delivery and fulfilment services to e-commerce merchants for the delivery of goods sold by businesses-to-consumer (B2C), but also consumer-to- consumer (C2C) and consumer-to-business (C2B) deliveries (returns). The firm provides also warehousing services to merchants.
Officers
The intrinsic value of one INPST stock under the Base Case scenario is 15.86 EUR.
Compared to the current market price of 17.21 EUR, InPost SA is Overvalued by 8%.