Heineken Holding NV
AEX:HEIO
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one HEIO stock under the Base Case scenario is 176.2 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 60.65 EUR, Heineken Holding NV is Undervalued by 66%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Heineken Holding NV
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Fundamental Analysis
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Heineken Holding NV stands as a global beacon in the brewing industry, with origins dating back to 1864 when Gerard Adriaan Heineken founded the company in Amsterdam. Today, this Dutch powerhouse is synonymous with quality beer, boasting a rich portfolio of over 300 brands, including the renowned Heineken lager, which has become a staple in bars and homes around the world. The company's operations spread across more than 70 countries and its brews are enjoyed in over 190, reflecting a well-established international presence. With a strong emphasis on sustainability, Heineken is committed to reducing its environmental impact through innovative practices and initiatives, appealing to a contemp...
Heineken Holding NV stands as a global beacon in the brewing industry, with origins dating back to 1864 when Gerard Adriaan Heineken founded the company in Amsterdam. Today, this Dutch powerhouse is synonymous with quality beer, boasting a rich portfolio of over 300 brands, including the renowned Heineken lager, which has become a staple in bars and homes around the world. The company's operations spread across more than 70 countries and its brews are enjoyed in over 190, reflecting a well-established international presence. With a strong emphasis on sustainability, Heineken is committed to reducing its environmental impact through innovative practices and initiatives, appealing to a contemporary, socially conscious consumer base.
For investors, Heineken presents a robust opportunity characterized by consistent performance and strategic growth avenues. The company’s strong balance sheet and history of resilient profitability make it an attractive option for those seeking stability in a volatile market. Heineken's efforts to diversify through acquisitions, local partnerships, and investments in craft brewing not only bolster its market position but also demonstrate a forward-thinking approach in a rapidly evolving industry. As consumer preferences shift towards premium and craft beers, Heineken's adaptive strategy positions it well to benefit from these trends, suggesting that the company is not just resting on its laurels but actively pursuing a path to long-term success.
Heineken Holding NV, one of the largest brewers in the world, has core business segments that are generally categorized based on geography and product offerings. Here's an overview of its primary business segments:
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Geographical Segments: Heineken organizes its operations into regions to better manage its diverse markets:
- Europe: This segment includes various countries in Western and Eastern Europe, where Heineken has a strong brand presence and a portfolio of local beers.
- Americas: This includes North America, Latin America, and the Caribbean, where Heineken has expanded its operations through acquisitions and partnerships.
- Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe: This segment focuses on emerging markets where beer consumption is on the rise, providing growth opportunities.
- Asia Pacific: Heineken has significant operations in Asia, tapping into rapid market growth in countries like Vietnam, China, and Indonesia.
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Product Segments: Heineken's product offerings are categorized into:
- Beer: This is the core product line, with flagship products like Heineken Lager, as well as a wide range of local brands and specialty beers.
- Cider: Heineken has made investments in the cider segment with brands such as Strongbow and Desperados, enhancing its product portfolio.
- Non-Alcoholic Drinks: There is a growing emphasis on non-alcoholic beverages, reflecting changing consumer preferences and health trends.
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Strategic Initiatives: Heineken continuously focuses on operational efficiency, sustainability, and innovation across these segments. The company invests in technology and digitalization to enhance its supply chain and marketing efforts.
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Brand Portfolio Management: Heineken manages a diverse range of brands beyond its flagship label, including numerous local and international brands, which allows for a tailored approach to different markets.
By focusing on these core business segments, Heineken Holding NV aims to maintain a competitive edge in the global beverage industry while responding to changing consumer trends and market dynamics.
Heineken Holding NV possesses several unique competitive advantages that bolster its position in the global beverage market. Here are some key factors:
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Strong Brand Portfolio: Heineken boasts a diverse portfolio of brands, including flagship brands like Heineken Lager, as well as a wide range of regional and local beers. This extensive brand portfolio allows Heineken to cater to various consumer preferences and capture different market segments.
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Global Presence: Heineken operates in over 190 countries, which provides a significant advantage in terms of market reach and brand recognition. This geographic diversification allows the company to mitigate risks associated with local market downturns and take advantage of growth opportunities in emerging markets.
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Efficient Supply Chain: The company has developed a robust and efficient supply chain, enhancing its production and distribution capabilities. This efficiency can contribute to cost advantages, enabling Heineken to operate at a lower cost than competitors and maintain margin integrity.
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Innovation and Product Development: Heineken invests in innovation and product development, responding to changing consumer tastes. This includes introducing new flavors, targeting the growing segment of craft beers, and expanding into non-alcoholic beverages. Such adaptability keeps the brand relevant in a competitive market.
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Sustainability Practices: Heineken is committed to sustainable practices, which resonate with an increasingly environmentally-conscious consumer base. Initiatives such as water stewardship, reducing carbon emissions, and sustainable sourcing can enhance brand loyalty and attract consumers who prioritize corporate social responsibility.
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Strong Distribution Networks: The company has established relationships with distributors and retailers worldwide, enabling it to efficiently deliver products to market. This strong distribution network is crucial for maintaining shelf space and ensuring product availability.
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Economies of Scale: As one of the largest brewers in the world, Heineken benefits from economies of scale. This allows the company to negotiate better terms with suppliers, reduce production costs, and invest more in marketing and innovation compared to smaller competitors.
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Strategic Acquisitions: Heineken has a history of strategic acquisitions that help it expand its market reach and diversify its product offerings. This enables the company to enter new markets quickly and leverage existing brand loyalty.
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Cultural Relevance: With strong marketing and sponsorship initiatives, such as partnerships with major events and festivals, Heineken maintains cultural relevance globally. This allows the brand to strengthen its connection with consumers in various regions.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Heineken Holding NV positions itself strategically against rivals in the ever-evolving beverage industry.
Heineken Holding NV, like any multinational corporation, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. These can be broadly categorized into market, operational, financial, regulatory, and reputational risks. Here are some key considerations:
1. Market Dynamics
- Changing Consumer Preferences: There is a growing trend towards health-consciousness and low-alcohol or alcohol-free beverages. Failure to innovate in this segment can lead to a decline in market share.
- Competition: The global beverage market is highly competitive, with numerous craft breweries and other global brands vying for market share. Increased competition can pressure pricing and margins.
2. Economic Factors
- Economic Downturns: Economic instability can lead to reduced consumer spending on premium products. Heineken must be prepared for economic cycles that may affect sales in certain regions.
- Currency Fluctuations: As a global player, Heineken operates in various currencies, exposing it to risks related to foreign exchange fluctuations which can impact profits.
3. Supply Chain Challenges
- Raw Material Costs: Rising costs for ingredients like barley and hops can pressure margins. Additionally, supply chain disruptions (e.g., due to geopolitical tensions or climate change) can affect production.
- Logistics: Global logistics issues, such as shipping delays and increased freight costs, may also pose challenges, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
4. Regulatory Risks
- Tightening Regulations: Increased regulations around alcohol advertising, labeling, and sales can impact marketing strategies and operational flexibility across different markets.
- Taxation: Governments may increase excise taxes on alcoholic beverages, which could reduce profit margins and lead to increased consumer prices.
5. Sustainability and Environmental Challenges
- Sustainability Expectations: Stakeholders are increasingly demanding that companies adopt sustainable practices. Heineken will need to invest in sustainability initiatives to meet expectations and regulations, which may require significant resources.
- Climate Change: Climate risks can impact agricultural production and water availability, critical components for beer production. Heineken's ability to adapt to these changes will be paramount.
6. Technological Disruption
- Digital Transformation: The industry is experiencing technological changes that demand investment in digital capabilities, including e-commerce platforms and data analytics to better understand consumer behavior.
- Cybersecurity Risks: As Heineken continues to digitalize operations and engage with consumers online, it faces an increased risk of cyberattacks.
7. Geopolitical Risks
- Political Instability: Operations in diverse geographic locations mean that Heineken may face risks related to political instability or changes in trade policies in certain countries.
- Trade Tariffs: Changing trade agreements or the imposition of tariffs may also impact profitability in specific markets.
8. Reputational Risks
- Brand Image: Any controversies regarding product quality, health impacts, or business practices can severely affect the brand’s reputation.
- Social Responsibility: Growing scrutiny around companies' social responsibilities means that Heineken must ensure it engages in ethical practices and contributes positively to society.
Conclusion
To navigate these challenges, Heineken Holding NV will need to be proactive in identifying risk factors and developing strategic initiatives that align with market demands, regulatory developments, and socio-economic changes. Continuous innovation and responsive management will be essential for sustaining competitive advantage in the evolving beverage landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Heineken Holding NV
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Heineken Holding NV
Current Assets | 11.9B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2.3B |
Receivables | 5.6B |
Other Current Assets | 4B |
Non-Current Assets | 42.3B |
Long-Term Investments | 3.6B |
PP&E | 14.5B |
Intangibles | 21.8B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 2.5B |
Current Liabilities | 15.3B |
Accounts Payable | 9.4B |
Short-Term Debt | 1.5B |
Other Current Liabilities | 4.4B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 29.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 13.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 15.7B |
Earnings Waterfall
Heineken Holding NV
Revenue
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30.6B
EUR
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Cost of Revenue
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-20B
EUR
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Gross Profit
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10.6B
EUR
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Operating Expenses
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-7.5B
EUR
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Operating Income
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3.1B
EUR
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Other Expenses
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-2.6B
EUR
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Net Income
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537m
EUR
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Heineken Holding NV
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
HEIO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Heineken Holding NV's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Heineken Holding NV's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
HEIO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Heineken Holding NV's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Heineken Holding NV's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
HEIO Price Targets Summary
Heineken Holding NV
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HEIO is 96.39 EUR with a low forecast of 85.85 EUR and a high forecast of 109.2 EUR.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for HEIO is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Heineken Holding NV engages in the management and supervision of the Heineken group, and production and distribution of beer and other beverage products. The company is headquartered in Amsterdam, Noord-Holland and currently employs 82,257 full-time employees. The object of Heineken Holding NV is to manage and supervise the management of the Heineken group and to provide services for Heineken NV. Through its subsidiaries, the Company is primarily involved in the brewing and selling of beer. The structure of Heineken Holding NV is divided into segments, which resemble operations of Heineken NV: Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Americas, Africa and the Middle East, and Asia Pacific. The shares of the Company are owned by L’Arche Green NV, FEMSA and public shareholders. Through its indirect subsidiaries, Heineken Holding NV operates in more than 70 countries worldwide. The firm operates Pivovarna Lasko dd as a majority owned subsidiary.
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The intrinsic value of one HEIO stock under the Base Case scenario is 176.2 EUR.
Compared to the current market price of 60.65 EUR, Heineken Holding NV is Undervalued by 66%.