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Welcome to the Corbion Q3 2019 Financial Results Conference Call on Friday, November 1, 2019. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call will be recorded and will be available by the webcast on the website of Corbion. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Jeroen van Harten, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2019 Call of Corbion. My name is Jeroen van Harten, Investor Relations, and with us today are CEO, Olivier Rigaud; and CFO, Eddy van Rhede van Der Kloot. As a reminder, there's a presentation also available on our website through the Investor Relation section. And as usual, in our Q3 call, we will start with a short introduction, this time by Olivier, and then we'll move into Q&A quite rapidly.So with that, Olivier, please go ahead.
Thank you, Jeroen. Good morning, everybody. As you've seen by now, the Q3 earnings release show 2 sides. On the one hand, we've seen an excellent third quarter with record organic growth of 6%. This is the highest ever since Corbion started back in 2012. On the other hand, we are taking our top line guidance down very slightly for the full year. And our first 9 months, as you've seen, shows an increase of 9% -- 9.5% in sales of which 2.8% is organic.To start, the sales growth in Ingredient Solutions is fueled by the continued success in food ingredients, preservation, clean label solution. Bakery is also contributing quite nicely to the growth as well. And this has been the third quarter of consecutive growth. So continuous efforts in that category start really to pay off, but I will need to see another 2 or 3 positive quarters before we can claim victory there. Biochemicals still has its top lines problems, but despite this, we managed to grow our EBITDA significantly.In Innovation Platforms, we are selling more lactic acid than ever to our PLA joint venture with Total. And PLA is clearly developing beyond our expectations.So why are we slightly lowering our full year top line growth outlook? Two reasons. Number one, in Biochemicals, we find that our sales in Electronics are taking a bigger hit than expected. However, looking at some of the sector developments, we are hopeful that the semiconductor sector is recovering, and that should also help us return to the former growth path.Secondly, in Algae Ingredients, our omega-3 product, AlgaPrime, is behind our expectations. Keep in mind, our profitability guidance for both Ingredient Solutions and Innovation Platforms remains unchanged.In the past few weeks, I visited all of the Corbion sites across the globe and I've met most of our people in the organization, and I have to say that I came back very optimistic about our future. I've met very committed and engaged workforce with intrinsic motivation to the work they are doing, but also really standing up for the positive sustainability impact we have.And as an organization, we're supporting that fully. You might have seen that we've now set ourselves for the so-called science-based targets, which makes us part of the first 300 companies that have seen those targets approved with a very strong commitment to slash 30% of our emission by 2030.So now, looking at our future plans. We've begun a strategic review, which will take a few months. But I want to make sure that going through that exercise, that there are no sacred cows in this review to get the clearest path forward. So beginning of next year, I plan to update you on the outcome of these reviews.On this, I will open the line for questions. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Wim Hoste from KBC Securities.
Yes. Couple of questions. Maybe first on Food Ingredients business. In the press release, you mentioned that the growth in meats is the highest this quarter of the year. Can you maybe help us understand what is causing that acceleration in growth? Is it the international business? Is it the shift to, yes, to more natural solutions in the U.S. mainly? Is it a combination? And also what makes you positive on the outlook of Bakery. You've seen a couple of quarters with growth, what are the commercial plans to further drive Bakery back into firm growth territory? Can you maybe help us explain that and help us understand that?And then another question is on, yes, the PLA business and the requirements of, yes, of lactic acid's capacity. Is there any clarity at this stage when you might start investing in gypsum-free plants or is it -- is that too early?
Okay. Thank you for the questions. So first, on your first question about meat and preservation solution. We've seen this nice momentum for the last couple of years already, but it's still very, very sustained and this is covering most of their geographies. We have obviously a nice position, market position in the U.S. We see a similar momentum in Latin America, so that is driving our business pretty strongly.One of the things -- just stepping into the business, I see in this type of solutions is that it's right on trend in terms of our capabilities to substitute synthetic or chemical alternatives. And we have benefited from that clean label and clear label, as well, trend.I've seen also in the portfolio of Corbion that we had a very strong differentiation in our ability to combine several of these antimicrobial products. And this is only one of the strength that gives us a differentiation in the market. So again, we have one of the strongest pipeline in that field and we have a very nice -- I mean very nice portfolio. So we see, I mean this going on for the next period as well. So it's a pretty solid pipeline.On Bakery outlook, as I said, yes, although it's the third quarter of consecutive growth, I think we are still -- I mean in a situation where we cannot yet claim that we are fully there for a number of reasons, and a portfolio review will help us in that context. But we have a number of segments within Bakery. You can mention sweet goods and base and mixes, milling. So there are different type of drivers. Although the pipeline is looking a lot better right now, the project pipeline is still not where it needs to be and the focus over the next month will be to continue to strengthen the development pipeline in Bakery. So as I said, I would feel more confident having another 2 or 3 quarters of growth behind before we could say, "Okay, we are at cruise speed there."So about PLA. Obviously, today we are selling, I mean everything we can produce in terms of lactic acid to the joint venture. So this is a great momentum, and we are trying, I mean to squeeze every drop of lactic we can to supply the joint venture. So we have a strong momentum there, which is a great news. About -- of course, the expansion in capacity and the new gypsum-free technology, we are currently into one of the final phase of evaluating our options on where this could -- this will happen, yes? So -- and obviously, you know we are looking at the various assumptions on terms of market development, but also in terms of feedstock because this is, I think, vital and crucial to our mobile for long-term sustainability in terms of profit that we get to this facility in the right place, yes? So this is obviously one of the biggest decision we will have to make over the next month. So we simply cannot get that wrong, yes? So it's very high on my agenda and the agenda of the Executive Committee as we speak. So -- but it will be -- I mean again, a decision we're going to be able to make in the next month.
The next question comes from Emmanuel Carlier from Kempen.
Three questions. First of all, on Innovation Platforms. So if I look at consensus, the market is expecting a loss of EUR 33 million in 2019 and then a big improvement in 2020, towards EUR 80 million. Yes, how realistic do you believe that is? And then what can you do to lower the losses? Does it just need to come from improved top line or do you also see some stuff you can do on the cost side? That's question one.Question two, quick one on ERP. Could you quantify the cost that you will take for that in Q4? And then thirdly, on Ingredient Solutions, how do you look at the balance between growing the top line and margin expansion?
Okay. So I will take the first and third one and Eddy will answer about the ERP. So on Innovation Platform, obviously you know this is composed of many things. So there is obviously the lactic sales to the PLA joint venture and the Algae business. We just discussed PLA and the dynamic there, that looks very positive. Just, I mean to highlight on the PLA and lactic there, next year, we will have an expansion in our Thai operations to enable the joint venture to grow further.So by the way, we have a shutdown to come in Q4 to prepare that expansion and another by the end of Q1, yes? So that will, I mean have some impact on the top line over the next period, but this is for the good as it's going to fuel the further growth of the PLA in 2020 and have a positive contribution.On Algae, one of the thing we see is that, yes, as I said, sales are beyond our expectation in terms of volume. However, you could see Q3, we had good results in our Algae, AlgaPrime DHA sales with, I mean a substantial increase year-on-year is still not where we need to be so -- because we had a low base. So the acceleration and the better momentum in Algae needs to come from obviously more customer conversion from wild fish oil to our solution, but also in our ability to get the cost of our product down. And I believe that, based on our value proposition today, which is obviously a much better sustainability, but also much better -- less contaminant compared to the wild fish oil, we also need to have, I mean a cost position that is close to fish oil and we are not yet there. So there is a strong focus in R&D today and in operations to get that cost up to the level where it needs to be competitive with the wild fish oil. So we are strongly working on that. And to me, that will be one of, let's say, the kind of turnaround we need to materialize. Still, the jury is out on this one because, yes, we still have to demonstrate our capability. The good thing we've seen in Q3 that was a good example, is that as soon as we get volume increase, the impact on the EBITDA is significant, yes, in terms of EBITDA improvement.So we know what needs to be done. Now of course, it's about getting a better momentum in the market in terms of conversion on one side and working really hard on getting the right cost on this product line.About the third question, on Ingredient Solutions. Obviously, I think in terms of growth or sustaining profitable growth, obviously, we don't want necessarily to do that only at the expense of margin. This is not the aim. We have 2 other sustainable profitable growth, but it's how to dynamite in the next period the pipeline because we have to do some serious work on our pipeline, project pipeline as well as controlling the customer attrition. And these are, I mean the 2 levers we have to work on.I have already some ideas, but we are working with the commercial sales force on strengthening our pipeline and the quality of our pipeline. At the same time, of course, mastering the conversion. There is definitely things we will do in terms of application, support and application lab capabilities in the organization. These might come at a cost, but we are currently evaluating that as we speak, yes? But I see that as a key enabler we're going to have to do next year.I just want to warn about something is that in the food ingredient solution, there is always inertia in terms of the way you build the pipeline, it doesn't come like an FMCG company right away. When you develop solution, as we discussed before, in preservation or whatsoever, you need to do sensory, you need to do aging test in full. So this takes usually between 12, 15, 18 months. So I know that there is not an immediate turnaround in the pipeline, but obviously, this is something that we will really focus on next year.So Eddy, maybe you take the second question about ERP?
Yes. So ERP, we're very proud and happy that we went live in the first 2 locations in Asia, that is both in Thailand and in Singapore on the 30th of September. That means from an accounting perspective, that all the costs associated for that moment onwards, all the trainings and the local support, especially in this first implementation, will run through the OpEx, yes, so that though -- it could be expressed from the EBITDA level. So I want to refer to the guidance we've given on that in the Q4 statements of last year, so that is a part of this year that we came out of that, that we stated that our EBITDA level will be impacted on an annual basis in the years '19, '20 and '21 in the range of EUR 2 million to EUR 4 million related to all these implementations, all these go-lives that we will incur. Expressed for this year, that means, indeed, the main impact will be in Q4, so still coming up in terms of the figures to be released. So the best ways to interpret that, that we will be in the bottom half of the EUR 2 million to EUR 4 million range having an impact on Q4 figures. So that's quite an impact on the margin profile for Q4.Also we're very happy with the first experience by the way on this go-live. No customer disruptions, logistic flows all went very smoothly from day 1 onwards. So we're very -- first reactions and experiences are positive. That also means that we are now also going to prepare for the next go-lives, scheduled for next year, where we intend to finish the other Asian entities that we have and then we will also move into the European major entities.
We will now take our next question from Xian Deng from Berenberg.
I have 2, please. The first one is related to the Meat segment. Just wondering if you see an impact on the Meat segment in either direction from the Asian swine flu. The second is related to the Algae Ingredients segment. You have commented that Algae Ingredients, overall, the growth is below earlier expectations, but also you previously commented that there has been measurements. For example, targeting supermarkets instead of salmon farming companies and we have seen some new -- very positive news flows recently, for example, with the agreement to supply your AlgaPrime DHA to a Norwegian Salmon Group. Just wondering if you could comment on the impact from the news flow and would you, for example, see already positive effects contributing now?
Yes. I think for first question about the Meat. We do not see any substantial impact on the swine flu, being honest. So it affected some of the ingredients we might source from China, but it's very marginal. So no really massive impact on this, I mean meat dynamic. We see, I mean of course, a lot of buzz around it, but we've not seen any negatives on our side. There is also obviously, a lot of discussions around meat alternatives in that segment, as you might have seen. Now everything that is plant-based, although still in proportion, marginal today. But the good thing for Corbion is that we are very present in this plant-based meat alternatives and we see that as a potential strong upside as we come because we are, today, I mean supplying these alternative sectors. So the desire, let's say, the underlying big, let's say, buzz that you see today in that Meat segment, where, yes, we see, I mean very little from the swine flu.On the second question about algae. Yes, indeed. We, as I said, we need to create, I mean a much stronger momentum there in sales and market adoption. One of the key actions we have in our release is to get consumer pull and for that, it's about convincing retailers to make sure that they can sell on the shelves the value proposition having salmon fed with AlgaPrime. So we're very pleased to see a big U.K. retailer coming public about it in -- I think it was in August. Yes, Tesco came with a public statement on the fact that they wanted to have a big contribution into algae-fed salmon overall. So -- and that we see as a very good mover from retailers.So we are also working with many others to have this similar type of approach. Today, of course, this is one milestone. It's not enough, yes, being honest. We need a lot more of these retailer to take a stance and push the entire chain to convert. But as I said, we regard this as important. We regard the cost as also very important because in the entire value chain of this salmon, the farmers are in the middle, they are not necessarily the ones making the highest margin. And turning to a more better, sustainable, cleaner solution is coming at a cost where they would not necessarily benefit themselves from the extra margin. The retailer might, but not necessarily these guys or the feed compounders.So for us, it's in the consumer pull, the retailer, as you said, as well as the -- in the cost and the input cost that we can give to the fish farmers.Back to the couple of wins you might have seen in the press. Indeed, the Salmon Group is a nice win for us. It's still in the high end. So the only thing I can say is that, yes, we need more of this. Obviously, it's again, for us very critical that we have to see even more momentum. The good thing is that this is another milestones on top of what, I mean was announced in the earlier years. There are a lot of trials going on right now in the market. It's about speeding up market adoption. So -- and I believe cost is one of the answer again, next to the retailer pull on the [ order ] . I don't know if this answers your questions.
Yes.
We will now take our next question from Fernand de Boer from Degroof Petercam.
It's Fernand de Boer from Degroof Petercam. Just to come back on the question on the losses for innovation cluster next year because, indeed, consensus is quite low at minus EUR 18 million for next year, while this year, it's minus EUR 35 million, the guidance. So could you elaborate a little bit more if that's a realistic one?And second one, if I listen to you also for next year, maybe it is early days, but we are looking at '19 and 2020. Then I understand if I -- correctly, that cost next year might go up as you are not entirely happy with the current innovation pipeline and the current top line growth. So also could you comment a little bit there or do you see any offsetting measures?
Yes. So on the innovation, basically, it's very difficult, of course, to comment on the level of loss because obviously as we've said, we're going to get to the continuous momentum in PLA, but this is not where the major part of the profit is because you will see that later in the year with the joint venture results, yes, on the full year. But today, so this is not the -- the win will be massively material. And on AlgaPrime, as we said, which is the other big, of course, one in there, it's about the speed of the momentum.So it's very difficult to comment on these early days what this loss is going to be. We are -- can move very quickly because we get another Salmon Group conversion or two. We've seen in Q3, with an increase in sales of 50% in algae that it goes very fast. It's impactful. I mean very fast on the P&L. So it can move very fast. But yes, I cannot say a lot more than that on this one.About the 2020 cost, I'm not sure we're going to have -- the target for me is not just to increase, I mean massively cost because you know today in some sectors, we are, I mean well-equipped and it's just a matter of execution. So what I'm reviewing right now is, yes, are we disciplined enough in executing and in terms of sales excellence. But yes, I mean again, [ they ] do not impact to massively -- no impact to the cost base at all.
Okay. Maybe one other question on PLA. The joint venture is going very well. So I think if it goes that well and probably ahead of what earlier plans, it could also mean that, at some point, they have to decide to extend capacity. If that is the case, does it also mean that you have to invest more money in that joint venture, apart from building a new lactic acid plant?
Yes. Maybe I can take that one. Yes, of course, a new PLA plant and lactic plant is quite a substantial investment, as you know. Of course, we have only one plant operational at this period or moment of time. The cash flows coming out of that will not be sufficient to fully fund a new train of lactate PLA. The way we're investing is still -- have to be seen at that time, because at a certain stage, the further the joint venture matures, if you will, you can also think about nonrecourse-based financing or funding. So there are all things we have to see how and how quickly that will develop going forward, but that's a bit where that stands.
We will now take your next question from Katy Hutchinson from Davy.
Just a few questions from my side. Firstly, on Algae, do your expectations of reaching breakeven during FY '20 still holds given the losses that we've seen -- that we will see this year? And also you might talk like the other products in the Algae Ingredients pipeline, such as the algal protein for human nutrition, pet food, et cetera, how is that progressing?And then lastly, Olivier, I just like to hear your thoughts on your impression of the food ingredients business so far, particularly in relation to the clean label solutions and the potential of that business there.
Yes, Katy. So yes, on the first question, indeed, I mean and I saw the earlier 2021 breakeven plans, we are currently reviewing that. So I mean it's an excellent question, but it's -- I'm unable to answer that precisely right now because this is part of the strategic review we are currently doing. As I said, it can go quickly, but yes, I'm not really in a position right now as we speak to give you an insight on this one.The second one, about human nutrition, yes, indeed, we have AlgaPrime DHA. And obviously, the second product in a row is the protein. I'm a very strong believer in that. However, on the Algae Ingredients platform, we make it or not on AlgaPrime DHA. For me -- and although I think when I look to the world and the protein is balanced and the plant-based dynamic today, I'm a strong believer in algae-based protein. I think this will be one of the solution of the future. But for Corbion, we're going to make it or not in the AlgaPrime DHA first. And this is where our focus is right now and this is a strong signal I gave to the organization that there is no distraction outside of DHA. I mean this is where we make it or not.On the food ingredient, basically, what I discovered in Corbion, coming from Naturex where also a big chain of our business was preservation with very close adjacency between natural antioxidant, I was really impressed by the type of solutions we have because the core technology of Corbion being fermentation, which is actually very well perceived by the consumer. If you speak about fermentation to the end consumer, they will think about also a process to provide healthy stuff. And you see that everyday whether it is kombucha in beverage, kefir in dairy and a number of things. So we have the chance that we can use our strength to ferment various type of organic acids or combine that with antimicrobials. And I think the big conversion from synthetic and artificial ingredients is still ahead of us. Contrary to what happened in some food ingredients areas, like, for instance, colors, where they -- the marketers already converted, quite to a large extent, from synthetic to natural. In preservation, it's not the case. Still, the big shift is ahead of us. And for sure, Corbion is very well positioned to capture the upcoming conversion. Now we have to do it with the right application capabilities, the right portfolio. We are going to have to work on very close adjacencies because it's a solution play, it's not only a pure ingredient play. So I'm optimistic about what I've seen in our capabilities to date and I think this can go easily beyond Meat, yes, in also other categories. I don't know if it answers your -- yes.
We will now take our next question from Patrick Roquas from Kepler.
Patrick Roquas from Kepler Cheuvreux. I'm looking forward to meet in the near term. The first question is for Olivier. You mentioned in your introduction, no sacred cows. Aside from, let's say, what I perceive the product pipeline in food and algae, what could be the other sacred cows here?And secondly, what are the elements you believe Corbion could benefit from given your experience at Naturex. That's, let's say, the first question.And then for Eddy, on Electronics. So I'm wondering, what are the key indicators that you look at when you're kind of forecasting the growth here? And what explains, let's say, the shortfall versus your previous guidance in such a short period? And also -- yes, do you see inventory levels coming down and how confident are you that you will see better growth as of, let's say, Q1 next year? And then finally, when looking at, let's say, price volume developments in Biochemicals, first half versus Q3, you see a shift. So have pricing turned negative whereas volume was slightly better?
Okay, Patrick. So on the first thing, obviously yes, no sacred cows. We have to run the exercise. Obviously, the point I wanted to make there is that we're going to look obviously to the portfolio to -- also of course, how do we align with the market trend and where we see the biggest growth opportunity because it's actually -- it's about growth and profitable and sustainable growth, yes?So -- and this is again also the one thing that -- for me it's quite important to generate value is we have to build on everything that Corbion is doing extremely well today. And I have the chance to find the company with a very solid financial situation and good foundation. Now it's how do we go to the next stage and get profitable, sustainable growth.So in that respect, we're going to look to the market opportunities, the adjacencies, but also the current portfolio and make an informed decision about, yes, where do we put our bets in the future.From the Naturex experience, obviously you know Naturex was a growth story and we do have a very strong growth mindset and it's -- if there is something you know of course I will try with a lot of humility, try to bring is to get a very strong growth mindset in the organization in the sense that, yes, we have to go for these opportunities and generate more. But also on a more execution part is how do we get the commercial execution lined up and the disciplined execution in getting some of these key pipeline management, as I said, conversion rates, working on attrition, all the basics that are very important if you -- we want to improve the predictability of our business, yes? So that's also important. So that, I think -- I mean again, because of my commercial background, I think I can potentially bring, again, with all humility, to Corbion.Eddy, you want to take the following one?
Yes. Patrick, thank you for your question. So on Electronics, so yes, indeed, what we have witnessed there in the last 1 or 2 quarters is really very abrupt and also pronounced destocking, I would call it, in the whole supply chain. And as you may remember, we are quite a couple of steps away from the end markets. So it sometimes takes some time to trickle through, through the value chain, but that indeed came a bit more pronounced than our feasibility earlier in the year.That being said, I think where we read the market currently is that we expect now that, that whole destocking has really now -- is now behind us. We do get, more recently, some first -- more positive signs. The difficulty has always been how quickly does those positive signs at the end market then translate back to our positions that we play in the value chain. But end markets impacts, for example, from 5G or the Olympic Games in Japan, those kind of events can -- could result in a relatively quick recovery.I also would like to stress again, we did not lose any market share in Electronics. It is really an industry downturn and you can see that in lots of other releases of other companies coming out with anybody involved in the space, that really has been hitting us very hard in Q2 and also in Q3.On the pricing impacts. So yes, indeed, Electronics is -- in Biochemicals, we have lots of different end categories we're playing there. So you know about that. In that whole range of subcategories, Electronics is, on average, a higher price in terms of sales price component. So in that sense, if you have a major downturn in the portfolio mix with Electronics in a quarter, then that also expresses itself as a negative price/mix effect.On margin profile, however, the impact is not that pronounced because the margin we're having on this whole Electronics business is more or less average for the whole Biochemicals margin. So yes, a negative price/mix effect on the sales line, but no, not a negative impact on the margin profile for Biochem.
We will now take our next question from Robert Vos from ABN AMRO.
I have 2 questions. You mentioned that PLA is developing beyond expectations. Can you say something about the utilization rate in the plants currently? And related to this, are the customers you're currently serving, are those which you could call recurring customers or is it still -- is the capacity mainly filled with, let's say, pilot batches from these customers? That's my first question.And then secondly, a follow-up on what you've said on the update that you plan for next year. I assume that it will also include new financial guidance replacing the current guidance that runs until 2021. Those were my questions.
Okay. I will take the first one and Eddy will take the second one. When we say PLA is developing beyond expectation, if you remember, during Q2, we mentioned we had at that time about 200 customers, yes, already, so this is, yes, growing nicely as well. So we have a much better number now. So I cannot disclose exactly how many, but this is still developing very nicely. So back to your question, now it's -- we're not relying on a few big. It's a very solid spread customer base. And as you can expect, obviously we are benefiting from favorable conditions because, I mean our competitor is also running at capacity. So they are -- I mean it helps us of course, I mean to maintain a good price level and high margin on top of the fact that we can develop the market base we'd be able to build on for the future. This is -- again what we try to avoid right now is only to be opportunistic, but to prepare for the next step.So this is on the PLA. Eddy, maybe you can take the guidance question?
Yes. Our future guidance, I think, let's not anticipate on that at this stage, Robert, because let's first get us through that review phase and then we have to see as an component in that, in terms of the outcome, what are then the fit-for-purpose metrics to be applied to that outcome, both from what metrics are to be applied and also quantitatively what are then the right metrics to be set. So please bear with us and let us first get the exercise done.
Yes. Well, I was not asking about what the guidance could be, but considering that your financial guidance currently runs until 2021, so that's another 2 years, I thought, okay, is it fair to assume that there will be some updated new guidance? That was the background of my question.
Well, I can understand, but Olivier told us in the introduction we will come out -- we expect to come out in the early part of next year. So as per today, we are still applying the current financial guidance. And let's, indeed, see what the outcome is of the review and then we will have to see what then is the fit-for-purpose set of metrics to be used.
[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions. Please continue.
Okay. So we're going to close the call. I want to thank you all for your participation. And hopefully, we'll see, I mean the majority of you in the next weeks, [ 6 ] months. I'm looking really forward to meet with you in person. Bye-bye, and have a good day.
Thank you.
This concludes the Corbion Q3 2019 Financial Results Conference Call on Friday, November 1, 2019. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.