Aperam SA

AEX:APAM

Earnings Call Transcript 2020-Q2

[Operator]

Hello and welcome to the Aperam Q2 2020 Results Call. My name is Jess, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. [Operator Instructions] On the call, we have Tim Di Maulo, CEO; and Sud Sivaji, CFO. And I will now hand you over to your host, Tim Di Maulo, to begin today's call. Thank you.

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you all for attending Aperam's earning release conference call. Next to me is Sudhakar Sivaji, Aperam CFO. Together, we will present the result of the second quarter 2020. Please take note of our disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements.Let's turn to Page 3 on health and safety. I'm pleased to report that our lost time incident rate at the second quarter improved significantly by dropping to a very low 0.6. During Q2, Aperam's primary focus has been on securing the health and safety of our employees while guaranteeing business continuity despite the COVID disruptions. You might recall that we have briefly closed some of our plants at the end of March to put in place social distancing and disinfecting routines. I'm proud that the measures taken proved successful in preventing the spread of the virus. This precaution has allowed us to keep all plants fully operational during the whole of the second quarter. Going forward, our focus remains the strict application of actual health protocols, enabling business continuity also in the face of a possible second wave.Let's now move to Slide 4 with the second quarter key developments. Of course, it has been a very challenging quarter, but Aperam successfully managed the initial stage of the COVID-induced demand crisis. Q2 is normally a seasonally strong quarter, but volumes declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter due to COVID-induced recession. However, I'm pleased that we have held up well and managed to achieve the high end of the guidance. Good volume development in Brazil, where our flexible multiproduct setup paid off, and the stability of the Alloys business were supportive here. It also helped to -- that import pressure dropped substantially in Q2 as several country quotas were almost exhausted at the start of the quarter.The Leadership Journey progressed well, and we have now realized 86% of the total program. This, together with high fixed cost variabilization, formed the foundation for a positive EBITDA, net income and free cash flow in this very challenging quarter.On the market side, prices remained stable but far below their normal level, while the order book continuously recovered since the crash in April. We expect this recovery to continue in Q3. However, the tailwind from less imports that we have enjoyed in Q2 will likely turn into headwind in Q3 again. We'll come back on this later.In Brazil, the existing antidumping duties on Non-Grain Oriented electrical steel was confirmed for another 4 years. As a response, we decided to upgrade our production line to improve the mix and strengthen our market-leading position.I now hand over to Sud for the financials.

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everybody, and also a warm welcome from my side. Please turn to chart 5. As Tim mentioned already, Q2 was a really tough quarter, but I think the results speak for themselves. We generated a solid EBITDA at EUR 49 million, which was down 30% quarter-on-quarter. And the drop in volumes was the dominating driver here, but our successful fixed cost variabilization and a bit less negative inventory valuation mitigated the impact. The financial result is positive this quarter as we were able to book another EUR 15 million of undistributed income on the interest side related to the PIS/COFINS refund. Together with the $17 million contribution in Q4 of 2019, we have now realized roughly BRL 200 million. Another BRL 800 million remain as potential benefit once the documents have also received from the -- what's happening?[Technical Difficulty]Okay. I'm sorry for the interruption. We had some technical difficulty. So I was talking about the PIS/COFINS credit and explained that about another BRL 800 million remain as potential benefit once all documents have been received and due processes in local Brazilian courts completed. Please note, for 2020, we now expected a tax rate of about 10% to 15%.Operating cash flow was again strong at EUR 57 million on the back of 116% EBITDA cash conversion. The PIS/COFINS contributions on back payables were definitely supportive here and largely explain the others line.We also have exhausted now 2/3 of our CapEx budget for this year after spending EUR 23 million in Q2. Please bear in mind, despite the crisis, we had a front-loaded CapEx budget this year and decided to go ahead with our Genk downstream project. This is a key investment to increase competitiveness, and this will be coming online as planned in Q1 of 2020. This resulted in a free cash flow of EUR 34 million.The net financial debt increased slightly due to the quarterly dividend payment but remains at a low level of 0.4x EBITDA. Our liquidity situation has improved further. We've secured another EUR 100 million in credit facility at the end of June, which brings our liquidity to a very comfortable EUR 660 million at the end of the quarter. As you all know, we have no earnings-related covenants in any of our financing arrangements.To sum up the financials and the performance, a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity is not just rational financial policy but also remains the backbone of our competitive position, especially in these low cycles.Moving on to the next slide for the Leadership Journey. We've made good progress in the second quarter despite the challenging conditions by adding another EUR 21 million in annualized gains, bringing the cumulative total of this phase to EUR 171 million against a target of EUR 200 million, which we had announced. The procurement functions were the primary contributors during this phase. And as you can understand, the COVID disruptions to production and demand slowed progress on variable costs and top line. As you know, we are currently working on the next phase of the Leadership Journey for defending our lowest-cost position in Europe and closing the gap to backward-integrated players. I can promise you that we leave no unturn -- stone unturned. The plan is well advanced, and we will announce a substantial program with concrete measures that you have come to expect from Aperam going forward. I now hand back to Tim for the review of market and outlook.

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you, Sud. Please turn to Slide 7 for a review of the market. On the raw materials side, nickel prices increased by 12% over the quarter, while the cold-rolled transaction price were flattish. The price delta to Asia is normal, but the level of price remained extremely low due to low capacity utilization in both Asia and Europe. Inventories in days are clearly elevated due to the COVID-induced demand drop. We expect the market demand to continue to recover so the inventory days should normalize without triggering a sharp inventory cycle during Q3.Imports have collapsed during the second quarter. The hot-rolled antidumping duties had some positive impact but well-filled quotas did not allow for more shipment, and this was the major factor. Unfortunately, the European Commission last quarter unrevised so when the new quarters opened in July, the cold rolling was filling very quickly, and the reasonable quota is already full. We, therefore, expect clearly higher import pressure during the second half.Now on the outlook, please look at Slide 8. We expect the economy recovery to continue and to translate into slightly higher volumes in Q3. However, Q3 is a seasonally weak quarter, especially for Europe.The rising import pressure, together with increasing competitive pressure in Europe, is likely yielding additional price pressure. We, therefore, expect the Q3 EBITDA at a comparable level versus Q2. We expect a further increase in net debt, which should reach its seasonal peak for the year in Q3.Sud has already talked about PIS/COFINS. While there is a slight delay in progressing, our cases -- courts in Brazil are closed due to the COVID, we confirm that we expect to book and to collect the remaining BRL 800 million.Okay. So we end this -- our introduction with our corporate access schedule that you can see in the next page that remains virtual for the time being. We will do -- be happy to video meet you at one of these events and discuss your question in detail. We are now ready for your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] So the first question comes from the line of Christian Georges from Societe Generale.

[Christian Eric Andre Georges, Equity Analyst]

I wanted to ask you is this tax credits, the PIS/COFINS that you're looking at, what do you think will be the time schedule for that to be available? Is that all over the next 12 months? Or is that longer?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

So Christian, when you talk about availability, the courts have confirmed that we can use these tax credits against future tax payments and so we have announced a schedule that these tax credits will be variabilized over the next 4 to 5 years. What we are now talking about is recognizing it on our books as income. And as reported earlier, we have done already 20% of that. Now the court cases, which will explain the procedure, how we do this, has been postponed because of COVID, and we do not have a set date, but we continue using the tax credits. And in Q2, we have first seen the cash flow effect also. Does that answer your question?

[Christian Eric Andre Georges, Equity Analyst]

Yes. Certainly. My second question is on these imports, which you believe are coming back into Europe. I mean -- were you saying that they've already filled up all the quotas early in July and therefore, the pricing pressure should increase as we move into the third quarter? Or is it something that you're still waiting to witness?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

So the point is that the residual quarter -- I was referring to the residual quarter. There are also country quotas, which are not filled. So there is a general pressure on the imports, as has always been, because the problem is that you have seen that we have asked that to the European Commission to review the level of quota due to the fact that the market has decreased and so it should have been logic to proportionally decrease the quota. Now this quota has not been decreased by the commission, and we expect that the pressure on -- of the imports will continue to be, knowing that the problem of price is a general problem of price in the world after this COVID. With low volumes, the utilization rate has been relatively low. And this price pressure is, let's say, is present in Q3 more than in Q2 because in Q2, the imports were stopped by the fact that all the imports have been, let's say, arrived in Europe during Q4 and in Q1. So definitively more pressure.

[Christian Eric Andre Georges, Equity Analyst]

And that applies to both hot-rolled and cold-rolled, right?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

So this applies mostly on cold-rolled. In hot-rolled, we are, let's say, in waiting for -- to see what will be the effect of the antidumping -- this antidumping, which has started just a few months ago, 3 months ago. Still have -- need to have an effect because there was a surge of imports with some inventory in hot-rolled now with the progression of the -- and then there has been the disruption, et cetera. Now with the progression, this antidumping will have an effect.

[Christian Eric Andre Georges, Equity Analyst]

So on balance on Q3, that could be a small positive that would be unfolding?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

We expect a better situation on hot-rolled, yes.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Rochus Brauneiser from Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Rochus Brauneiser, Head of Steel Research]

The first is on your volume performance overall. You finally came out on -- or above the better end of your guidance range. Can you give us an idea what finally made the better performance? Was it subject to certain regions or customer segments which were beating your initial expectations? And the second question is the good performance in the quarter was obviously due to Brazil. According to my calculation, you probably had even margin expansion in real terms, which is quite remarkable in light of a probably weaker mix, high iron ore cost and international price pressure. If you could put a little bit more light on that particular performance, why you have been quite stable in your margins. And thirdly, your guidance implies more or less quite a stable EBITDA per tonne performance despite the high ongoing price pressure you're expecting in the third quarter. What would be of help is what are the main offsetting elements for this relative stability? That's it for the moment.

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Thank you. So the guidance was in a range of minus 15%, minus 25%. And even if this guidance was, let's say, just in MISO in the middle of the quarter, even we have had a good view of the order book, still all the logistic customers, et cetera, were, let's say, closing or they had to face the COVID effect. So it was very, very difficult to give a precise guidance. At the end, what has happened also has been the fact that our business model is based on service and solution. And so a lot of possibility on -- to fill the requirement on very short time demand. And this has been helping a lot. And so for this reason, we have been at the lower level of the volume drop. Nevertheless, the volume dropped. And especially on a quarter like Q2, that should be extremely good for Europe. And the best quarter of the year has been an important, let's say, penalty, which has been compensating with an extremely good work done on cost and here on variabilization. I have to congratulate my team of having been putting in place all the measures needed to variabilize cost -- fixed cost temporarily using all the temporary employment, using all the flexibility in our contract, et cetera.Then, Brazil has been performing well. Yes. In Brazil, you remember that the COVID has not been there until, let's say, the mid of June. So the quarter has been -- has not been impacted by COVID. So we have had a more, let's say, normal quarter than Europe. On top of, we have put in Brazil in place all the prevention protocols. So we have not lost any single day in Brazil. So our plant has been able to continue to work, already putting in place preventively all the health protocol of Europe. So this has helped a lot to maintain the stability of Brazil with some help also on the competitiveness due to the exchange rate. So Brazil globally, indeed, has been maintaining the volume and the performance due to the fact that it has not been taken by the COVID. And finally, on Q3, our guidance is a mix effect of different things. So the seasonal effect, you know that Q3 is typically for Europe a low quarter. And even in Brazil, it's not as big as in Q2. We expect -- we don't know exactly how all the company will close, how long, et cetera. So we are expecting, in any case, a low in seasonality. On the other hand, we have a recovery of the normality in the sense that now our customers are nearly all reopened. So there has been also in some -- in a few cases, some short-term demand -- an increase of short-term demand in July because when people have reopened, all of a sudden, they have consumed their inventory, but they have started to ask for shorter delivery in July. And then there is the question of the prices. So prices are under pressure, as you -- as we have said. And so all in all, better volumes, a certain recovery. But the price is pressured, and our quarter will be flat -- more or less flat on -- versus Q2.

[Rochus Brauneiser, Head of Steel Research]

And on the reason for the margin -- strong margin in Brazil? If I'm right, as you said, I guess, in real, you were better than in the previous quarter. What...

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

I would say that -- no. I think that Brazil, the margin has been always a mix between the 4 products line. What is clear is that the mix is important. So whenever you have a good mix of the best product, this helps more. And when you have to, let's say, to compensate with more or, let's say, filler products, you have less margins. I will say Brazil -- the difference between Europe and Brazil is that Brazil has not suffered in Q2 fundamentally. The big explanation is Q2 for Brazil was the normal -- a normal quarter.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of [ Johannes Matula ] from Morgan Stanley.

[Unknown Analyst]

The first question on the Alloys & Specialty division regarding the order backlog. One of your competitors flagged earlier today the weaker project outlook, particularly in oil and gas. Can you provide some colors on the end markets for your business and the outlook we expect on margins and volumes in the second half?Then the second question, again, in Brazil, you touched on the mix already. But how should we think about the sequential development of the mix in Q3 versus Q2 assuming a greater impact from COVID? And then lastly, you mentioned the new coating line in Brazil. Could you talk about the CapEx and maybe an indication on the expected returns on that project?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. So yes, Alloys -- as you know, the Alloys business is typically a business made on contract -- on longer-term contracts. It's not based on spot demand. So you have a stronger stability in terms of volumes and in terms of margin in this sector compared to the commodities -- let's say, the more commodities stainless steel. Concerning Aperam, we are exposed in oil and gas, mostly in the sector of LNG. LNG is a sector which is less taken from the crisis of the oil. And in particular, I will say, just the country, it is a sector with contracts on over 2 or 3 years, which are very -- which is very stable and for which we will not see the slowdown in the few, let's say, quarters to come.We are a part of a small exposure also in the oil and gas. And here, in the oil and gas, let's say, more commodity, there could be some slowdown. But all in all, we are very happy of the stability and the long-term relationship and contracts that we have in Alloys, knowing that we are not, for example, in one of the most exposed sector, which is aerospace. We are not there so we can't fear that.So in Brazil, mix Q3 versus Q2, it's early to be said. So we consider that the crisis -- the COVID crisis in Brazil has started, and we have to see what will be the consequence with the same kind of volatility that probably will be in Europe unless they have learned, but I don't think so, the lesson and they have prepared the industry to better react than Europe. For the moment, we don't see many customer closing. So there is not really the same effect that we have experienced in Europe and especially in the region in which we were exposed of entire sites closed by a couple of weeks or even 3 weeks. So we don't expect this so much, but there will be some effect. And depending on the kind of customers, we will have an effect also on Q3 versus Q2 mix, which I can't forecast for the moment.And then in CapEx, I don't know if your question was on general, the -- on CapEx. But our guidance on CapEx is that we have limited the CapEx of the year at EUR 100 million in cash. This EUR 100 million in reality is 2 parts. One is 50 -- let's say the 50% of this part is on all the projects which are linked to Leadership Journey. But fundamentally, the large majority is for our plant in Genk, which is forecast to start up in Q1 next year. And the coating with which we have decided to launch, thanks to the good, let's say, resolution of the authority in Brazil, which has allowed us to have the protection for 4 years, is a very good project with a very high threshold in very high return. We always say that we never consider investment with an IRR below 15%, but this below 15% is really the low limit, and we are not in this low limit.

[Unknown Analyst]

So what's the CapEx number for that -- CapEx figure for that project?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

It's about, I would say, high single digit, yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

And starting this year?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

We'll start at the end of the year.

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

And the hard part is at the end of the year.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

So I have a couple of questions. Just firstly, to confirm, the Brazilian business did not have any contribution on the EBITDA level from the PIS/COFINS effect, right? So all of the effect you've been incurring, you've been incurring basically on your financials line and I think cash flow but not in EBITDA?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

Bastian, thanks for the question. Actually, this quarter, we took it on the financial income or financial expenses line. But I would like to remind you, in Q4 of 2019, we took it on the EBITDA line. So our rough guidance is that out of the BRL 1 billion, we'll probably get 50% on the EBITDA and 50% on below the EBITDA.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

Okay. Are there any further proceeds you are basically envisaging for the rest of this year? Or is it basically still uncertain, given just the process and also the disruption of COVID on the legislative system there?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

When you mean proceeds, yes, we will expect cash benefits in similar amounts also this year based on what we've been variabilizing.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

So basically, you're expecting another EUR 15 million or so in -- for the rest of the year or...

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

No. But it depends also on how the taxes develop because these are credits which we use against any type of federal taxes. And so we'll have to see on a quarter-to-quarter basis what part we can compensate using these credits.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

Got it. Okay. Understood. So it depends basically on your earnings level then as well. Okay. And then just following up again on the mix because I wasn't unsure whether I understood this perfectly correct. My understanding was your general volumes have been obviously holding up well, but you've been compensating maybe some higher-margin material also with some lower-margin products, i.e., in the second quarter, your mix has been actually a little bit worse than usual. And from what you understand -- from what you said earlier, do I understand correctly that your mix will actually get a little bit worse in Brazil also in the third quarter? Is that correct?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

No. No. No. It's not -- no. No. No. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that it is difficult to forecast what will be the mix effect in Q3 because the mix will depend a lot on the customers and the way they are closing or slowing down depending on COVID. So there is -- we are in Q3 -- let's say, at the beginning of Q3, we are exactly in the same situation that we were at the beginning of Q2 in Europe. So with a low visibility on what will be the effect of the customer. This was my sentence.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

Got it. Okay. And your second quarter mix, has it been a tad weaker than what it usually would have been?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

No. It was been flat. No. Good -- it has been as normal. I've not seen a -- we can't consider that the second quarter mix in Brazil has been particularly different from the usual.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

Understood. Okay. Then just one last question. My impression is that the negative impact from metal prices has been a little bit less than what you were originally expecting. Could you give us a very rough sense as to how much that could have been? Has it been still maybe double digit? And do you still expect any lagging effect also in the next quarter? Or whether it be not largely neutralized after the second?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

No. What is clear is that the work that has been done in Leadership Journey on the -- this is the major factor that has saved the result -- or has put the result at the level at which they are, despite the price pressure or the very low level of prices and the drop in volumes, okay? These are -- this is the main factor.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

But -- so technically, has there been still any negative impact as well from basically falling metal prices?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Okay. So we have had, as announced, a slightly less negative impact on the inventories because this has been mitigated by some kind of increase -- slight increase of nickel, which was a little bit higher than expected. But the negative effect was there, but slightly below what we were expecting.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

And could you just give us a broad sense? Has that still been a double-digit number possibly or less than that?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

It was about half of last quarter, yes. Want a number for your models.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Research Analyst]

And will you still -- at this -- at the current prices, do you still expect another effect in the third quarter? Or will that be fully neutralized?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

I don't believe it'll be fully utilized, but there will not be even such a large effect. That is what I expect.

[Operator]

And you next question comes from the line of Seth Rosenfeld from Exane BNP Paribas.

[Seth R. Rosenfeld, Research Analyst]

I have a couple of questions, please, starting out with working capital. If you can touch on some of the drivers of the working capital treatment in Q2 with the build, and I think it was somewhat unexpected. What drove that investment in working capital? And what would you expect for working capital progression as we look ahead to the second half of the year?And then secondly, can you please touch on some of the cost savings measures, fixed cost savings, that helped boost realized margins in the course of Q2? How sustainable do you view those as being going into the second half of the year? Do you view any of those cost savings measures, for example, access to short-time work schemes, rolling off?

[Sudhakar Sivaji, Chief Financial Officer]

Seth, thank you for your questions. So on working capital, the increase is a technical increase what we see because in the steel industry, when there is a sudden destocking and the demand goes down, we always have a cash release because of inventories, and we've been very diligent on that. And we've variabilized close to the volume decrease what we have had. However, the payables drop faster. And this is just a timing effect, and this should catch up. So I'm not worried about cash or working capital for this year on an annual basis because we will cover the seasonal effect or timing effect in the second half of the year. And I fully expect to generate cash to be able to pay our dividends for this year.

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

On cost, we have always been extremely, let's say, transparent on what is the structural part of the cost and what is not the structural part of the cost. So typically, in this quarter, we had the 2 components of the cost saving that we have done. There is, from one part, the variabilization. So we have been able to variabilize a lot of the costs that are -- and the large majority of the cost, even what is considered fixed costs, which are in our P&L.But the second part, which is structural, is linked to the Leadership Journey, and this part of the cost will always be. So it's not a variabilization linked to the level of volumes. So you see that the EUR 21 million linked to Leadership Journey will be structural and will be there. And then there is another additional part that we have been able to do on the variabilization, we're using temporary employment, we're using the all the contractual variabilization that we have with the external supplier with the higher work, et cetera, which is depending on the level of volumes.

[Seth R. Rosenfeld, Research Analyst]

And if I can, a separate question, please, with regards to the outlook for European pricing for base prices. Obviously, we saw a very significant drop in imports in Q2. You're pointing to some increase in the second half of the year, although, hopefully, that will be accompanied by better demand. What do you think about the scale of pricing pressure what you think today versus over the last, say, 6 months or the last 12 months? Given the trade policy environment that we're in right now, it -- the antidumping duty for hot-rolled coil are not enough to move the needle. Do you ever think we'll be in an environment for European base prices to go higher? Or are we just stuck in this low pricing range in perpetuity because we don't see many other policy efforts on the horizon that are quite obvious for us?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

So interesting question because, indeed, this is a question which is linked much more to the global economy and the global situation of the stainless in the world. So what has happened, in fact? Today, when we look at the price, prices are extremely low. But even for the Asian producers, these prices are not giving them any kind of margins. Why they are so low? They are so low because there is this effect of the very low utilization rate and on the fact that in the first part of the year, there has been a lot of production with inventory building up the inventory. And so this is now the effect of this part of the production with the lag effect on Europe, which has been, let's say, close to imports during 3 months for the quarter and for the fact also because there was a logistic, let's say, issue in reaching Europe coming from Asia. Now we will have this in Q3. But what normally we should expect is that this level of prices will become unsustainable in the rest of the world. You have seen that there are some positives in the sense of a sustaining price announcement on nickel pig iron, which is becoming more expensive. There is some effect on the, let's say, on the results that will come in -- at the end of the year. So what we expect is that at a certain moment, the inventory that has been stopped by the COVID, et cetera, et cetera, will be finished, will be exhausted. And then that the normal will come back with a positive effect also due to the fact that some of the antidumping in the quarter will be filled -- more regularly filled and the antidumping will have an effect. When? Not in Q3, of course, because Q3 is exactly the month -- the quarter in which all this is happening.

[Seth R. Rosenfeld, Research Analyst]

So in your mind, this is more of a potential Q4 issue, or are you waiting further ahead to 2021 and before...

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

We will observe. But of course, it is an upside for '21.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Rochus Brauneiser from Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Rochus Brauneiser, Head of Steel Research]

Previously, I asked on why margins are holding up well. I would like to understand to what extent your margin performance in Europe has been stabilized or supported by the purchasing conditions for stainless steel scrap. And I guess, because of the low production levels, the discounts have been probably greater than in previous quarters. Would -- if so, what would you expect for the second half, once production levels are coming back? Is this kind of turning around again in terms of pricing conditions?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

So scrap, indeed, is our raw material, and there is a market for scrap as there is a market for stainless steel. The 2 markets can't -- let's say, must be correlated. And the correlation is that when prices go up or prices go down, there is typically a natural tendency to go up and down with -- because also, the producer of scrap are the same customers which buy stainless steel, and then they sell back their part of this scrap. So scrap will always be -- it is a market. It is a market and will continue to be in the same rule of the market. If there is demand scrap will be, let's say, under tension and might increase. If there is a lower demand, scrap will be going down. Now disclosing more, I think there are so many publication on scrap that you can find, people better informed than me. And in particular, this is part of the, let's say, competition subject, which we prefer not to disclose.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Alain William from ODDO BHF.

[Alain William, Analyst]

Yes. I have 2. So first, can you tell us where we are in terms of utilization rate? And probably give us a sense of the pattern between July, August and September, how you expect the ramp-up to take place? And then second question, when do you plan to give an update on the share buyback program?

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

So thanks. I might be disappointing on the utilization rate because it's very difficult to forecast this utilization rate. Of course, it's very low because you see when demand is down, the utilization rate is low. Also because when demand decrease, there is a normal, let's say, effect, which is that you have to also reduce the inventory to adapt the level of inventory at the lower activity. So the use of the capacity is even lower, okay? But the utilization rate is a very important, let's say, KPI to survey, to see at which level you variabilize costs. So the game has been for us to be as much as possible at no effect with the lower utilization rate, okay, so to variabilize cost.Concerning share buyback. So as we had announced, the decision will be taken by the Board after the Q3 results. So we will see at the end of the year. And remember always that share buyback is an option that we take in our financial policy in case of extra cash. So the reason why we play or not on the share buyback will depend a lot on the situation of the economy, on what are our projects, et cetera, and is not some -- it is a variable tool, which is different from dividend, where we have engaged in a progressive policy dividend, which we have confirmed.

[Operator]

There are currently no questions in the queue. [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions coming through. So I'll hand back over to your hosts for any closing remarks.

[Timoteo Di Maulo, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Thank you for having participated in the call. So what I have explained, I suppose, has been very clear. This particular quarter, so much hit by the COVID, has been -- in this particular quarter, we have been focused on keeping our people safe, maintaining the activity running and being flexible on all the aspects, which are the cost -- the management in cost, the service with our customer to maintain at best our position.Results show that we continue to be positive, generating cash. We are positive, of course, in EBITDA. We will continue to progress with the Leadership Journey. And we'll very soon be able to explain to the market, which will be -- what will be the next phase of the Leadership Journey and the new plan.I profit to greet you a good holiday, good rest, and to stay safe because this COVID is something which is really changing our personal life on top of the working life. Thank you very much, and see you for the next quarter earnings release.

[Operator]

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.